One year after President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the multilateral 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the deal is in deep trouble.
Iran has announced countermoves on the JCPOA and further actions if the Europeans, China, and Russia do not deliver on sanctions relief and has suggested that the country may also withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), while earlier this month the United States renewed some nuclear cooperation waivers while revoking others.
Statement from the Arms Control Association notes that the proliferation threat will grow over time if European powers do not respond.
The Trump administration's announcement of waivers to allow the continuation of projects at key Iranian nuclear sites is clearly in the U.S. and international community's interest, but its decision to cut down on the length of the waivers and tighten nuclear-related sanctions in other areas puts the deal in further jeopardy.
The nuclear watchdog has continued monitoring activities in Iran as suspicions linger.
Failure to grant the sanctions waivers detailed in the 2015 Iran nucelar deal would jeopardize U.S. nonproliferation priorities and increases the risk that the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will collapse.
The IAEA, which recently reported that Iran is complying with its nuclear-related commitments in the Iran deal, also reportedly inspected a warehouse in Iran last month. Iran is making progress on a mechanism to facilitate legitimate trade as the United States issues additional sanctions.
Iran faces more U.S. sanctions as IAEA confirms its compliance with nuclear deal.
European powers have developed a trade mechanism to enable commercial transactions with Iran
despite U.S. sanctions.
As U.S. Vice President Mike Pence calls for the EU to leave the JCPOA, the Democratic National Committee calls for the U.S. to re-enter the agreement. U.S. intelligence assessments find Iran in compliance with the nuclear deal and France, Germany, and the United Kingdom announce a mechanism to facilitate trade with Iran.
Several European ministers will not attend the upcoming U.S.-Polish summit on the Middle East expected to focus on Iran, a likely U.S. presidential candidate calls for U.S. re-entry into the JCPOA, and the Trump administration's Missile Defense Review cites the possibility of an Iranian ICBM.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accuses Tehran of being in “open defiance” of Security Council resolution.
As the IAEA continues to find Iran in compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States has reimposed a second round of sanctions with waivers.