Digests and Blog

Inside the Arms Control Association  September 2024Since the outset of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s illegal, unprovoked, all-out invasion of Ukraine, the specter of nuclear weapons use has grown. Putin has tried to use nuclear threats to try to coerce and intimidate, and at one point in late-2022 he seriously considered the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.  But Russia’s nuclear arsenal and threats of nuclear first use have failed to prevent Western military assistance to help the people of Ukraine resist Russian aggression.And unlike nuclear threats that were issued during the…

Nuclear Disarmament MonitorSeptember 12, 2024At the Sep. 4 plenary session of the UN General Assembly, China announced it has taken over the role of coordinating the P5 process from Russia in line with the group’s rotating schedule. China “looks forward to continuing dialogue and cooperation among the P5 on the basis of their 2022 joint statement on the prevention of nuclear war and exploring feasible initiatives to reduce nuclear risks,” said the Chinese delegation. The P5 process is a multilateral discussion forum involving the five nuclear powers recognized by the nuclear Nonproliferation…

Inside the Arms Control AssociationAugust 2024For the first time in more than 35 years, there is serious talk about increasing the size and diversity of the already massive and costly U.S. nuclear arsenal. Such an expansion would increase global nuclear dangers and reverse decades of progress in slashing U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles.In recent months, we’ve seen a barrage of proposals from nuclear weapons insiders and defense industry-supported think tanks calling for more U.S. strategic and tactical nuclear weapons to address a future with two “near peer” nuclear adversaries:…

Nuclear Disarmament MonitorJuly 25, 2024The second preparatory committee meeting ahead of the 2026 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in Geneva. 191 states-parties to the NPT and 72 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are gathering from July 22 to Aug. 2 to review the implementation of the landmark treaty and to develop a forward-looking action plan covering the treaty’s key components: nonproliferation, disarmament, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.Amid high pressure on the NPT regime, “each pillar of the NPT provides for areas where convergence is…

As U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias clash in the Middle East, there is a growing risk that another dangerous flash point could ignite conflict between Tehran and Washington: Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Iran is already on the threshold of nuclear weapons six years on from U.S. withdrawal from the multilateral arrangement that had, to that point, successfully contained its nuclear program. Escalating regional tensions could push Tehran to determine it needs a nuclear deterrent for security or the United States to miscalculate Iran’s intentions and prematurely use military force…

Yes, it’s already time to be worried — very worried. As the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have shown, the earliest drone equivalents of “killer robots” have made it onto the battlefield and proved to be devastating weapons. But at least they remain largely under human control. Imagine, for a moment, a world of war in which those aerial drones (or their ground and sea equivalents) controlled us, rather than vice-versa. Then we would be on a destructively different planet in a fashion that might seem almost unimaginable today. Sadly, though, it’s anything but unimaginable, given the work on…

Inside the Arms Control AssociationJuly 2024Today, we are facing a growing and unprecedented array of nuclear weapons dangers. At the same time, this year’s presidential election is also unprecedented, unpredictable, and extremely consequential. History shows that U.S. presidential leadership is one of the most important factors determining whether the nuclear danger will rise or fall. Perhaps the most fundamental responsibility of a U.S. president, who has the sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons, is to avoid events that could lead to a nuclear war.Unfortunately, mainstream…

The president of the United States has the sole authority and power to launch the nation’s nuclear weapons. Think about that for a moment.Donald Trump’s emotional, erratic, and unhinged behavior during his first term poses a grave threat to our national security. He has driven uncertainty to an aspect of the presidency that requires predictability: the global nuclear balance. This alone renders Trump dangerously unfit to serve as commander in chief.... But today’s Trump is not the same man he was, even just since he left office in 2021. He is more and more detached from reality. In recent…

Iran’s president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian called for improving ties with the West and expressed support for nuclear negotiations during his campaign but said that Tehran cannot be pressured into rolling back its nuclear activities. It is not clear, however, how much space the Supreme Leader will give Pezeshkian to pursue engagement over the country’s nuclear program.Pezeshkian, a member of parliament since 2006 and a former health minister, beat the hard-line, former nuclear negotiator and deputy foreign minister Saeed Jalili in a July 5 runoff. Pezeshkian was the sole reformist amongst the…

By Vann H. Van DiepenOn July 8, House Republicans posted draft legislation that would require the United States to drop controls on exports to Australia, Canada, and the UK of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) items controlled on the U.S. Munitions List (USML)—undoing a requirement to retain such controls enacted by Congress in December 2023.This proposal comes in the wake of an April 2024 decision by the Commerce Department to remove export controls to Australia and the UK on dual-use MTCR items. All of these actions have been justified in the name of implementing the Australia,…