Digests and Blog

Inside the Arms Control Association    March 2024Last month speaking in Geneva, UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning: “The nuclear shadow that loomed over humanity last century has returned with a vengeance.  The nuclear risk is higher than at any moment since the depths of the Cold War.”“Some statesmen regularly imply that they are fully prepared to unleash nuclear hell — an outrageous threat that the world must condemn with clarity and force.  And the vital norms and standards against the proliferation, testing, and use of nuclear weapons are being eroded,” he said.…

A high school teacher in my hometown Hiroshima once shared with me a quote from David Krieger, “Some view Hiroshima from above mushroom clouds, whereas some are under the clouds.”On the evening of Feb. 22, an auction titled “Hiroshima Atomic Bombing: Melted Wristwatch with Detonation Time of 8:15 AM” was concluded with a $31,113 winning bid.Some, including sellers and bidders, perceived this auction as an opportunity to collect a rare historic treasure that symbolizes the dawn of the nuclear era. For other people, this watch is an artifact of a tragic memory. They felt disrespected, disgusted…

As U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias clash in the Middle East, there is a growing risk that another dangerous flash point could ignite conflict between Tehran and Washington: Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Iran is already on the threshold of nuclear weapons six years on from U.S. withdrawal from the multilateral arrangement that had, to that point, successfully contained its nuclear program. Escalating regional tensions could push Tehran to determine it needs a nuclear deterrent for security or the United States to miscalculate Iran’s intentions and prematurely use military force…

With less than two years to go before the expiration of the last remaining treaty limiting the world's two largest arsenals, Russian leaders continue to reject U.S. offers to discuss a new nuclear arms control framework.In late December, Russia sent a diplomatic paper rejecting the United States’ proposal to resume arms control talks, according to U.S. officials, and Russia's foreign minister announced Jan. 18 that Russia was interested in talks on a new arms control framework to supersede the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expires Feb. 5, 2026.In a speech Jan. 17,…

The P4+1 and Iran Nuclear Deal AlertThe head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reiterated concerns about Iran’s advancing nuclear program and called for diplomacy with Tehran.During the Jan. 15-19 World Economic Forum in Davos, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Iran is “restricting cooperation in a very unprecedented way” and is punishing the agency for actions taken by the United States and European countries. He said it is “unacceptable” for the IAEA to be held “hostage” to Iran’s “political disputes with others.”Grossi emphasized that diplomacy is necessary “…

In early 2021, ACA successfully encouraged the White House to work quickly on a deal with the Kremlin to extend the last remaining treaty limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear weapons for another five years. In 2023, we encouraged the White House to outline a practical strategy for advancing nuclear arms control diplomacy with Russia and China.At ACA’s annual meeting in June, President Biden’s national security advisor proposed renewing a dialogue with Russia on a new nuclear arms control framework and a separate nuclear risk reduction dialogue with China “without preconditions.”…

This hasn’t exactly been a year of good news when it comes to our war-torn, beleaguered planet, but on Nov. 15, President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping took one small step back from the precipice. Until they talked in a mansion near San Francisco, it seemed as if their countries were locked in a downward spiral of taunts and provocations that might, many experts feared, result in a full-blown crisis, even a war — even, God save us all, the world’s first nuclear war. Thanks to that encounter, though, such dangers appear to have receded. Still, the looming question facing both…

Inside the Arms Control Association      December 2023Bright Spots in a Difficult YearOverall, 2023 was another difficult year for arms control and international security.In fact, it has been a difficult decade as relations among the states with the world’s largest nuclear arsenals have deteriorated and progress on disarmament has stalled.The result is that nuclear risks are on the rise, and we are now on the brink of a dangerous and costly era of nuclear competition – unless we act now.Through the challenges of the past year, we have persisted and made some headway that may provide openings…

The P4+1 and Iran Nuclear Deal AlertA top U.S. official said that restoring the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is not a viable option in the current environment, confirming the shift in the Biden administration’s strategy for addressing the risk posed by Iran’s advancing nuclear program.Kurt Campbell, President Joe Biden’s nominee for deputy secretary of state, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his Dec. 7 confirmation hearing that a return to the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is “just not on the table.”Campbell, currently the National…

In an unprecedented move, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially rescinded Russia’s ratification of the treaty banning nuclear test explosions anywhere in the world Nov. 2.Russia’s ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the U.S. failure to ratify the treaty “created an imbalance” between the two countries, “which is unacceptable in the current international situation,” said the Kremlin in a statement that day.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded that “Russia’s action will only serve to set back confidence in the international arms control regime,”…