Since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale, illegal, and brutal assault on Ukraine in early 2022, he has issued occasional threats of nuclear weapons use against anyone who might interfere. The result is a heightened risk of nuclear war between Russia and NATO in ways not seen in the post-Cold War era.


June 2024
By Daryl G. Kimball

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale, illegal, and brutal assault on Ukraine in early 2022, he has issued occasional threats of nuclear weapons use against anyone who might interfere. The result is a heightened risk of nuclear war between Russia and NATO in ways not seen in the post-Cold War era.

In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on May 21, 2024, a Russian Iskander missile is seen during drills to train the military for using tactical nuclear weapons at an undisclosed location in Russia.

After strong international criticism of his nuclear rhetoric in the weeks and months following the invasion, Putin dialed back his threats in 2023. But last month, he publicly authorized field exercises designed to demonstrate the potential use of substrategic nuclear weapons by Russia against NATO or Ukraine. The drills were held in Russia’s Southern Military District, which includes Russian areas adjoining Ukraine and Ukrainian territory seized by Moscow.

If nuclear weapons are used in this or any conflict between nuclear-armed adversaries, there is no guarantee that the fighting would not quickly become an all-out nuclear conflagration. As U.S. President Joe Biden warned in 2022, “I don’t think there’s any such thing as an ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.” The Group of 20 nations also underscored the dangers in joint statements in 2022 and 2023, saying the use of nuclear weapons and threats of use are “inadmissible.”

Putin’s cronies claim that Russia’s substrategic nuclear drills are a response to statements by French President Emmanuel Macron that NATO should not rule out sending ground forces into Ukraine and by UK Foreign Minister David Cameron that Western-supplied weapons could be used by Ukraine to strike targets in Russia.

The instinct of European leaders to do more to help Ukraine is laudable, and renewed Russian attempts to use nuclear coercion to block such assistance are unsurprising, but both risk escalation that could lead to a wider European war and potential nuclear catastrophe.

Given the stakes, the international community must pursue approaches that lower tensions, increase dialogue, and resist those who threaten to break the nuclear taboo.

As U.S. and European leaders continue to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to repel Russia, they must calibrate carefully and coordinate their military support to avoid escalation. So far, the Biden administration has designed its military aid packages wisely and delivered increasingly advanced weapons to help Ukraine defend itself in a way that does not trigger Russian attacks on U.S. or NATO forces or territory.

U.S. and NATO leaders must continue to refrain from making rhetorical threats of nuclear retaliation, avoid provocative nuclear exercises, and rule-out mirroring counterproductive Russian moves, such as the forward deployment of Russian substrategic nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The United States could help reinforce legally binding negative security assurances for many non-nuclear-weapon states against nuclear attack by finally ratifying the protocols to three nuclear-weapon-free-zone treaties covering the South Pacific, Africa, and Central Asia that have languished in the Senate for more than a decade. Working through the Conference on Disarmament, the United States also could join with China to start negotiations on a global treaty to provide negative nuclear security assurances to all non-nuclear-weapon states.

As importantly, the world’s non-nuclear majority needs to push back harder against nuclear threats by Russia or any other state. In 2022, states-parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons issued an important statement noting that “any use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is a violation of international law.” They also condemned “unequivocally any and all nuclear threats, whether they be explicit or implicit and irrespective of the circumstances.” Russia was not named in the statement, but the message was clear.

One joint statement is not enough. Whenever any nuclear-armed state attempts to engage in nuclear coercion, as Russia is doing, it is in the self-interest of all states to condemn such threats and demand that offenders refrain from provocative actions.

Resuming the suspended Russian-U.S. dialogue on nuclear risk reduction and arms control is crucial to avoiding nuclear miscalculation and competition. Non-nuclear-weapon states could help by urging Moscow and Washington to meet their nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Article VI disarmament commitments by engaging in talks on a new nuclear arms control framework agreement before the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in 2026.

All states concerned about nuclear escalation also could urge the five NPT nuclear-weapon states to express support for the 1973 Soviet-U.S. Agreement on the Prevention of Nuclear War, which requires that states refrain from nuclear threats and, in times of increased risk of nuclear conflict, “immediately enter into urgent consultations with each other and make every effort to avert this risk.”

So far, the 79-year-old taboo against the use of nuclear weapons has held, but the world cannot take it for granted. Tragically, the end of Russia’s war on Ukraine is nowhere in sight. To preserve and strengthen the consensus against nuclear weapons use and threats of use, we must sustain pressure against those who might try to break the nuclear taboo.

June 7 ACA Conference: Remarks from UNSG Guterres, Rep. Garamendi, and White House Director for Arms Control

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For Immediate Release: May 28, 2024

Media Contacts: Daryl G. Kimball, executive director, 202-463-8270 ext. 107; Tony Fleming, director for communications, 202-463-8270 ext. 110.


(Washington, D.C.)—UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the House Armed Services Committee chair John Garamendi (D-Calif.), and the senior director for arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament for the National Security Council will deliver keynote remarks at this year's annual conference of the Arms Control Association, “Moving Back from the Nuclear Brink,” on Friday, June 7 at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

Expert panels will also address critical national and international security issues including:

• the debate over the rising costs of the $1.5 trillion U.S. nuclear weapons modernization program and proposals to increase the size of the already massive U.S. nuclear arsenal in the years ahead. Panelists include the nuclear weapons expert Hans Kristensen, the chair of the Congressional Commission on the U.S. Strategic Posture, Madelyn Creedon, and W.J. Hennigan of The New York Times

• the Biden administration’s failure to enforce its own arms transfer policies and U.S. law as it supplies weapons being used by Israel in its assault on Gaza. Panelists include a senior State Department official and independent civilian protection and arms transfers experts.

• options to curtail Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities and the nonproliferation implications of a deal for nuclear cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which has threatened to pursue nuclear weapons if Iran does.

Secretary-General Guterres will deliver special remarks via video in the morning. In recent weeks, Mr. Guterres has warned about a resurgence of nuclear threats, noting that: "The nuclear risk is higher than at any moment since the depths of the Cold War … And the vital norms and standards against the proliferation, testing, and use of nuclear weapons are being eroded.”

Rep. Garamendi will open the June 7 conference live via video with a keynote address focusing on cost-effective alternatives to the U.S. nuclear modernization program, including the troubled Sentinel ICBM program, and why President Biden needs to redouble his efforts to engage Russia and China in talks on nuclear risk reduction and arms control.

“Since 2014, the U.S. has spent $570 billion in taxpayer dollars on nuclear weapons and is slated to spend an additional $756 billion by 2032. [T]he House Armed Services Committee had the rare opportunity to rein in this wasteful spending, but Republicans refused to provide necessary oversight,” Garamendi said after the committee considered the National Defense Authorization Act, last week.

Pranay Vaddi, Special Assistant to President Biden and Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation at the National Security Council will deliver remarks on "Adapting the U.S. Approach to Arms Control and Nonproliferation to a New Era.” He is expected to provide an update on the administration’s efforts and plans since National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s proposals on nuclear deterrence and arms control with Russia and China that were unveiled in his speech at the 2023 ACA Annual Meeting.

The nonpartisan Arms Control Association promotes effective arms control policies and supports international efforts to reduce and eliminate the threats posed by the world’s most dangerous weapons. The organization has been at the forefront of efforts to promote nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament for more than 50 years.

The June 7 event will run from 9:00 am to 4:30 pm EDT.  The full list of speakers and the registration details for the event, which is open to the public, are available through the Arms Control Association's website.

Members of the press may request complimentary registration. 

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Congressional Members Urge Nuclear Arms Control Talks

Nuclear Disarmament Monitor
May 2024


As efforts by the United States to engage with Russia in talks on nuclear risk reduction and a new nuclear arms control framework remain on hold, a group of Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate are urging President Joe Biden to prioritize efforts to engage Russia in bilateral talks on nuclear arms control, and to continue bilateral nuclear risk reduction talks with China, warning of growing risks of nuclear instability.

Take Action: Tell Congress that Downwinders Deserve Respect

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Speaker Mike Johnson must agree to present Senate bill S. 3853 to the House floor or RECA will expire June 7, 2024.

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Our organization is dedicated not only to advancing effective measures to reduce and eliminate the enormous dangers posed by nuclear weapons. We also work to support efforts to address the toxic and radioactive legacy of past nuclear weapons testing and production.

From May 17 to 19, a special screening of a new documentary, “First We Bombed New Mexico,” will be available online. It tells the tragic story of the many “downwinders" whose health was adversely affected by the fallout from the July 1945 Trinity nuclear test and their betrayal by the U.S. government. 

In particular, thousands of New Mexicans—mostly Hispanic and Native American—were exposed to catastrophic levels of radioactive fallout, never warned, never acknowledged and never helped afterwards. 

You can easily watch this film on your phone, iPad, laptop, or desktop by registering here.

REGISTER TO WATCH ON YOUR DEVICE

Alongside this special screening is a panel discussion with the filmmakers and a bipartisan group of members of Congress who are fighting to address this wrong. They are pushing legislation to expand and extend the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA) to include Trinity downwinders and other communities. 

This is an urgent and timely issue as RECA will expire June 7, 2024, unless these advocates win Congressional approval to extend it.

On March 7, the Senate approved S. 3853, which would extend the RECA program for five years to downwinders in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Guam. It would also expand compensation to several populations who were left out of the original program, including uranium workers and residents living in or near areas contaminated by nuclear weapons production-related activities.

Now, House Speaker Mike Johnson must agree to present the Senate bill to the House floor. If he does, it would likely win overwhelming approval.

Please call House Speaker Mike Johnson's office and tell his staff that you: 

"strongly urge the House to quickly take up and pass the RECA expansion and extension bill, S. 3853, in the interest of public health and justice for those impacted by the government’s past nuclear testing and nuclear weapons production activities.” 

CALL SPEAKER JOHNSON'S OFFICE AT (202) 225-4000.

Thanks for your help and support.

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