Emerging Technology

Panelists: Marcia Smith, Ben Baseley-Walker, and Bruce MacDonald

The change of U.S. administrations creates the opportunity for a broad assessment of the country’s space policy, starting with some basic questions.

What should the goal of national space policies be? Are they trying to ensure freedom of action for certain states and not others? Does the definition of “freedom of action” need to be updated to reflect the increasing number of space actors? Should the focus be on establishing future cooperative efforts in space, or is space being preserved just for its own sake?

South Korea carried out its inaugural space launch attempt Aug. 25, seeking for the first time to place a satellite in orbit using its own rocket. South Korean officials described the launch as “partially successful,” as the on-board satellite overshot its intended orbit. South Korea is planning another attempt next year, Education and Science Minister Ahn Byong-man said at a press conference following the unsuccessful orbit. (Continue)

The United States, Japan, and South Korea warned North Korea in March that its intended satellite launch would violate a UN Security Council resolution prohibiting Pyongyang's missile activities, indicating that the council would consider the issue in the event of such a launch. North Korea maintains that the launch is only for civil space purposes and has provided information to UN agencies on the timing and route of its space launch vehicle. (Continue)

Iran announced Feb. 3 that it carried out its first successful launch of a satellite into orbit. The launch raised international concerns regarding the progress Iran has made in its ballistic missile program, in particular the possibly that Iran may develop an ICBM in the future. (Continue)

Many aspects of the Chinese-U.S. relationship are mutually beneficial: some $400 billion in trade, bilateral military exchanges, and Beijing's increasingly constructive diplomatic role. There are other grounds for concern. Each side's militaries view the other as a potential adversary and increasingly make plans and structure their forces with that in mind.

On the conventional side, there are many important areas to consider, but the potential for nuclear rivalry raises monumental risks. This article assesses the dangers in the bilateral nuclear relationship, the potential for traditional arms control to address these challenges, the broadening of the "strategic" military sphere, and the issue of proliferation beyond the bilateral relationship. (Continue)

In December, the European Union issued a draft code of conduct for outer space activities that skirted many thorny issues that have plagued prior international efforts to prevent an arms race in outer space. Designed to encompass civilian and military uses of space, key features of the text include a voluntary commitment to refrain from intentionally harming space objects, measures to control and mitigate space debris, and mechanisms for cooperation and consultation. The EU is now expected to hold consultations to revise the text so that it is acceptable to more countries. (Continue)

A Review of Harnessing the Heavens: National Defense Through Space edited by Paul G. Gillespie and Grant T. Weller, and The Politics of Space Security: Strategic Restraint and the Pursuit of National Interests by James Clay Moltz.

Despite urging from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and many participating governments, the 65-member Conference on Disarmament (CD) proved unable in 2008 to break its long-standing stalemate on negotiating priorities. It has been 12 years since the CD last produced an arms control agreement. (Continue)