Emerging Technology
The unregulated development and deployment of emerging technologies—referring to scientific and technical developments that, if applied in the military sphere, could have transformative effects on the future of warfare in unpredictable and potentially hazardous, destabilizing ways—could increase the risk of accidental and unintended conflict escalation. Whether manifested in new domains, new applications, or new military capabilities, these technologies can include hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence-enabled capabilities, cyberspace operations, counterspace capabilities, and the like.
The Arms Control Association (ACA), in conjunction with other experts and organizations, has proposed various measures to reduce such risks, as laid out in issue briefs, reports, articles in Arms Control Today, and more. To receive updates on developments in this field, join today or sign up for our regular updates list.
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A comprehensive review of missile proliferation published in 1988 listed 20 nonindustrialized nations that were deploying various types of ballistic missiles at the time. Tucked toward the bottom of that list was one Middle Eastern country with just three types of missiles, two of which were actually simple, unguided rockets. That country was Iran.
The Pentagon’s new cyber strategy provides the department with guidance on how to defend the United States in cyberspace. The strategy states that cyberspace is an operational domain in which the rules of armed conflict apply.
Iran carried out its second successful satellite launch, demonstrating greater experience with rocket technologies that also could benefit its missile programs.
The Obama administration last month released its international strategy for cyberspace, calling on “like-minded states” to come together to establish acceptable rules and norms for responsible state behavior in cyberspace.
The Obama administration has clarified its space policy but has not said whether it will join a voluntary code of conduct that has prompted questions from a large group of Republican senators.
Following a rare high-level meeting of UN members in September discussing ways to “revitalize” UN bodies addressing disarmament and nonproliferation, this year’s First Committee deliberations paid considerable attention to the role and methods of the international “disarmament machinery.”
The European Union in late September adopted a revised draft code of conduct for outer space activities after receiving feedback on text circulated in December 2008. (See ACT, January/February 2009.) Endorsed by the EU as a basis for consultation with additional countries, the voluntary code may be opened for signature as early as next year.
The Obama administration this summer announced a new space policy that marks a break with the previous administration by being more receptive to arms control efforts.
According to the document, released June 28, that spells out the policy, Washington will “consider proposals and concepts for arms control measures if they are equitable, effectively verifiable, and enhance the national security of the United States and its allies.” The new policy also calls on governmental agencies to “pursue bilateral and multilateral transparency and confidence-building measures.”