Inside the Arms Control Association
October 2025
At this pivotal and difficult juncture in the history of the nuclear age, ACA has been focused on preventing the guardrails against nuclear catastrophe from breaking down, and preparing to seize the breakthrough moment when we can advance again in the direction of a world free of nuclear weapons.
One key guardrail that is going down is the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which will expire in some 100 days. In 2021 ACA successfully lobbied the Biden administration to extend New START for five years. The treaty cannot be formally extended again.
What if anything replaces New START is not clear.
What is clear: Without new constraints of some kind we are poised to see the first increase of the United States’ deployed nuclear arsenal in more than 35 years.
Recently we have seen some room for optimism, but we cannot rest easy.
On Sept. 22, Putin said, “Russia is ready to continue to adhere to the central quantitative restrictions under the New START Treaty for one year after February 5, 2026” if the United States does as well.
When asked by a reporter on Oct. 5 about the proposal, Trump said that “sounds like a good idea.”
It is a modest, commonsense concept ACA has been promoting for many months that could help reduce tensions, forestall a costly arms race that no one can win, create diplomatic leverage to curb the buildup of China’s arsenal, and buy time for talks on a broader, more durable, treaty.
Now, we need to make sure the two presidents follow through by formalizing the “freeze” and by directing their teams to restart negotiations on a follow-on agreement or agreements to further reduce U.S. and Russian nuclear systems. Even if they do, there will be strong pushback from the well-financed nuclear weapons lobby.
We’ve been preparing for this situation for quite some time.
For months, ACA has been in the forefront to develop a more focused, coordinated, joint civil society campaign to head-off a new nuclear buildup and get disarmament diplomacy back on track.
In July, we co-launched a multi-organizational call to action to “Halt and Reverse the Nuclear Arms Race.” See: ReverseTheArmsRace.org for the text of the call and a growing list of endorsements to date. These efforts include a “week of action” from October 24 to October 31 to build demand and more visible political support for nuclear restraint. (See the action alert below.)
We’ve also been reaching out to audiences near and far to put the issue on the map.
Last month, ACA Board Chair Tom Countryman spoke at the Seattle World AffairsCouncil on Sept. 16 on “Navigating Global Nuclear Threats.”
Then on Sept. 25, we devoted a major segment of the Sept. 25 ACA Annual Meeting to the subject of “Off-Ramps from a Three-Way Nuclear Arms Race.”
Caption: Former Asst. Sec. of State, Mallory Stewart, Professor Steve Fetter, fmr. Deputy Assist. Sec. of Defense, Kingston Reif, and ACA Board Chair Tom Countryman on Sept. 25.
Our keynote speaker, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), urged president Trump to agree to Russia’s proposal to “adhere to the New START Treaty for one year beginning at its expiration date,” and pursue bilateral talks with Russia and separately with China on risk reduction and arms control.
We’ve also been briefing and mobilizing other states to publicly urge the United States and Russia to exercise nuclear restraint and all nuclear-armed states to do their part to halt a new nuclear arms race.
ACA and the U.S.-German-Russian Deep Cuts Commission project worked with the Austrian Mission in New York to convene a well-attended, side event Oct. 9 at the sidelines of the UN First Committee on Peace and Security.
Caption: More than 50 delegates joined our October 9 briefing at the UN in New York.
As we reported in our latest “Nuclear Disarmament Monitor” e-newsletter, non-nuclear weapons countries are responding. Austria has advanced a joint statement endorsed by 33 states that was released on Oct. 21 on the value of U.S.-Russian arms control and follow-on negotiations. A number of states have also independently touched on the need to negotiate a follow-on to New START in their national statements, including Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Norway, Turkey, non-aligned movement nations, among others.
Thanks for your support and involvement at this key juncture.
New START Expires In 100 Days: Take Action
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last major remaining bilateral, U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreement, will expire on Feb. 5, 2026.
Now is the time to urge the White House and your Representative and Senators to support an U.S.-Russian deal to continue to respect current New START limits after the treaty expires and use the time to negotiate a new framework deal to slash the massive Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals, and to seek bilateral talks with China on mutual nuclear restraint measures.
Call upon them to speak out and urge other nuclear-armed states, including China, to immediately freeze the number of their long-range nuclear launchers. Make your voice heard through this customizable action alert.
Defusing “A House of Dynamite”
Through the course of the nuclear age, feature films have helped to shape public perceptions and understanding of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons, from Dr. Strangelove and Fail Safe, to The Day After, War Games, The Hunt for Red October, and more recently, Oppenheimer. 
Now there is a new film directed by Kathyrn Bigelow that brings home the dangers of nuclear deterrence and nuclear catastrophe for new audiences. A House of Dynamite opened this month for limited theatrical release and will be available on the Netflix streaming service beginning October 24.
The plot line: "When a single, unattributed missile is launched at the United States, a race begins to determine who is responsible and how to respond." As the riveting film shows, the answers are not clear and the options are all very bad.
If you see the film, we’d like to hear about what you think about it, what questions you have, and what you believe we can and should do to avoid the scenario depicted in the film (and other possible variations) from ever occurring.
Send us your thoughts using this simple online form or you can also email us at [email protected] and our team will use your input to help shape a forthcoming “Frequently Asked Questions” discussion guide on the film that we will post on our ArmsControlNow blog.
Iran Nuclear Crisis Enters a New and More Uncertain Phase
As we have warned for weeks, the illegal Israeli and U.S. military strikes on Iran in June damaged key nuclear facilities and eliminated key scientists, but Tehran still retains nuclear material, capabilities, and technical knowledge that pose a proliferation threat. The strikes also halted the U.S.-Iran talks, and led to the expulsion of IAEA inspectors.
The situation has not improved. Last month, 11th hour negotiations between Iran and European powers, in consultation with U.S. officials failed to arrive at an understanding to avert a “snapback” of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran under Resolution 2231. (These sanctions had been lifted under the terms of the successful but now defunct 2015 nuclear deal).
In response, Iran is now considering further restrictions on its relationship with the IAEA, which would raise the stakes and the risks for all sides. The door to diplomacy is not closed but the options for a win-win solution have narrowed.
ACA’s team, led by director for nonproliferation policy Kelsey Davenport has been a leading voice for de-escalatory options, and we’ve been very active in private discussions with senior government officials on what happens next. For more, check out our statement “Averting a Nuclear Crisis with Iran Post-Snapback” from Sept. 29 and our news report in the October issue of Arms Control Today.
New AI and Nuclear Command & Control “Firebreaks” Project
As a recent article in Arms Control Today by the inaugural director of the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence (AI) Center, Lt. Gen. John "Jack" N.T. Shanahan explains, “the integration of AI across the nuclear command and control/nuclear command, control, and communications enterprise and beyond may create false confidence in the information that is shaping leaders’ situational awareness and influencing nuclear-related decisions.”
In other words, integration of artificial intelligence in nuclear operations can make the already tenuous balance of nuclear deterrence even more unstable, especially in a crisis.
This problem is the focus of a new Arms Control Association project over the next two years in partnership with the European Leadership Network and the Center for AI Risk Management and Alignment, through a major $500,000, two-year project grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
The aim of our project is not just to understand the risks of AI in nuclear operations, but to develop concrete and practical safety recommendations for artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear operations.
ACA Welcomes New Policy Intern: Naomi Satoh
Earlier this month ACA welcomed Naomi Satoh as our Fall 2025 nuclear policy intern. Naomi is currently a graduate student at the University of Maryland studying Public Policy, with a specialization in International Security and science/technology policy.
Naomi has a background in physics and education, which she studied during her undergrad at Illinois State University.
She was selected to be a Next-Generation Fellow with the Physicist Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction. We are excited to host Naomi and look forward to her research and publications with us.
Be a Part of ACA’s New Legacy Society
Nuclear weapons are a long-term challenge that requires long-term investments in nuclear threat reduction efforts.
You can help the ACA serve future generations by joining our Legacy Society and including the ACA in your estate planning.
As a Legacy Society member, you can make a significant impact through a future gift that does not cost you anything during your lifetime.
We hope you will consider including the ACA in your estate plan because the effort to reduce and eliminate dangers posed by nuclear weapons will require persistent and effective work for years and years to come.
You can find more about the Legacy Society here.
ACA In the News
Kelsey Davenport discusses Iran’s reaction to the reimposition of UN sanctions in Aljazeera: “Iran says restrictions on nuclear programme ‘terminated’ as deal expires” Oct. 18.
Reuters cites Daryl Kimball’s comments on NNSA furloughed workers in “U.S. to furlough workers at nuclear weapons agency due shutdown” Oct. 17.
The Wall Street Journal cites Daryl Kimball’s call for “the Kremlin and the White House to direct their teams to begin negotiations on a new more comprehensive agreement or agreements to supersede New START in “Trump Praises Putin’s Offer to Extend Nuclear Treaty,” Oct. 5.
Daryl Kimball welcomes post-New START proposal in a TASS article, “Trump essentially accepts Putin’s proposal on New START” Oct. 5.
Kelsey Davenport responds to “UN imposes ‘snapback’ sanctions on a hungrier, poorer and more anxious Iran” in Associated Press, Sept. 27.
Kelsey Davenport comments in The Washington Post, “After U.S. strikes, Iran increases work at mysterious underground site” Sept. 26.
The Associated Press cites Daryl Kimball’s analysis of new activity at Israel’s main nuclear weapons production site in “Construction intensifies at site linked to Israel's suspected nuclear program, satellite photos show,” September 9.
ACA’s analysis critiquing changes to the U.S. interpretation of the rules of the Missile Technology Control Regime are cited in a news article, “Trump to Sidestep Cold War Arms Control Treaty to Sell More Drones: Report” published by Common Dreams, September 9.
In Case You Missed It
Remarks at a Joint Briefing at the UNGA First Committee on "Advancing Article VI Goals as New START Expires," by Daryl Kimball, Executive Director, October 9, 2025.
Joint NGO Statement for the 2nd meeting of the CTBTO Article XIV Conference, “Advancing the CTBT and Reinforcing the Global Norm Against Nuclear Testing” as delivered by Shizuka Kuramitsu, Research Assistant, Arms Control Association September 26, 2025.
2025 Arms Control Association Annual Meeting: Urgent Steps to Address the Nuclear Danger, video recordings, September 25, 2025