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"The Arms Control Association’s work is an important resource to legislators and policymakers when contemplating a new policy direction or decision."

– General John Shalikashvili
former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Kelsey Davenport

Sanctions Seen Slowing N. Korea Progress

Kelsey Davenport

Although North Korea continues “actively to defy” UN Security Council resolutions, international sanctions “appeared to have slowed” the country’s activities in areas such as development of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, according to a report to the UN Security Council on the implementation of the sanctions imposed by the resolutions.

The report was authored by a panel of experts authorized under UN Security Council Resolution 1874 in 2009. The mandate for the panel includes assessing the effect of the sanctions on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and providing recommendations to better implement restrictive measures on Pyongyang from Resolution 1874 and its 2006 predecessor, Resolution 1718. The resolutions impose embargoes prohibiting arms sales and transfers of nuclear and ballistic missile technology, a ban on luxury items, and sanctions on designated persons and entities that violate embargo provisions, among other measures.

The panel reports annually to the Security Council. In 2011 its report was not made public. This year’s report was submitted to the Security Council on May 11 and publicly released June 29. The panel relies on reporting from UN member states, information in the public domain, and first-hand accounts and observations collected by panel members to make its assessments.

According to the panel, since May 2011, member states did not report any violations involving transfers relating to nuclear weapons, other unconventional weapons, or ballistic missiles. States did report violations in other areas, including “illicit sales of arms and related materials.” North Korea’s ability to evade sanctions and acquire these goods indicates “elaborate techniques to evade” restrictions, the report said. The panel concluded, however, that the sanctions imposed by the Security Council made “illicit transactions significantly more difficult and expensive.”

The panel also assessed progress made by North Korea on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. It concluded that the rocket North Korea attempted to launch on April 13 was “extremely similar” to the one Pyongyang test-fired in 2009. (See ACT, May 2012.)

The panel expressed concern over the new eight-axle transporter erector launcher observed in the April 15 parade celebrating the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. The report concludes that such a road-mobile missile launcher requires “advanced features” and that North Korea had not previously “demonstrated its capacity to build such a vehicle.” The panel said it would continue to examine this issue.

In relation to the ballistic missiles observed in the parade, the report noted the KN-08 “new road mobile missile” and the assessment of some nongovernmental analysts that the missiles displayed in the parade were mock-ups, but the panel did not express a view on the missiles’ operational status.

Uranium Enrichment

The panel of experts reported that it is focusing on “tracking” Pyongyang’s past procurement activities and attempting to “identify choke point items” necessary to sustain North Korea’s uranium-enrichment program. The panel reported that a number of “uncertainties” surrounding the progress made by North Korea in uranium enrichment still exist, including those relating to the number and operational status of centrifuges and existence of a stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The panel said it was not able to determine if North Korea could domestically produce the specialty items required to expand its centrifuge program, has developed “undetected” networks for importing such items, or was using stockpiles of materials imported before the sanctions began.

The panel noted separate analyses saying that North Korea would likely be able to produce a warhead for a medium-range ballistic missile based on access to designs provided by the Abdul Qadeer Khan network in a “relatively short time after it produced sufficient HEU.”

The panel’s report included 12 recommendations to improve the implementation of the sanctions imposed by the Security Council resolutions. It called on the Security Council committee established by Resolution 1718 to “explore possible solutions” to technical challenges that prevent countries from properly conducting inspections on goods in transport. The panel called on the committee to provide “clear guidelines” for the disposal of seized items. Countries should report inspections and violations to the committee more promptly, preferably within three months, the report recommended.

Six-Party Talks

Meanwhile, South Korea’s lead nuclear negotiator said multilateral diplomatic negotiations with North Korea over the dismantlement of its nuclear program and the subsequent repeal of the international sanctions are unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Speaking at the East-West Center’s International Media Conference in Seoul on June 24, Lim Sung-nam said he would be “hesitant” to say that current prospects for resuming the talks “look bright.”

In addition to South Korea, the six-party talks include China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, and the United States. China has chaired the meetings since the talks began in 2003. The most recent meeting took place in December 2008 in Beijing. (See ACT, January/February 2009.) In April 2009, after the UN Security Council issued a statement calling North Korea’s test firing of a rocket on April 5 a violation of Security Council resolutions banning such tests, North Korea announced that it would not participate in the talks. (See ACT, May 2009.)

Despite the three-year lull in the talks, Cheng Jingye, the Chinese ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that experience showed that the six-party format was an “effective mechanism in achieving denuclearization.” In a June 5 statement to the IAEA Board of Governors, he called for the six parties to “revitalize” the Feb. 29 agreement between the United States and North Korea that broke down after Pyongyang went ahead with the April 13 test firing of a rocket.

The United States said the launch violated the terms of the agreement, under which North Korea agreed not to conduct any nuclear or long-range missile tests and to suspend uranium enrichment in return for food aid from the United States. Although the deal was a bilateral agreement between Washington and Pyongyang, Cheng characterized it as a “hard-won and positive outcome” from the “framework of the six-party talks.”

Cheng also called on “all parties” to avoid actions that “may escalate the tension in the region.” Government and nongovernmental experts believe that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test explosion. It has carried out nuclear tests twice, in 2006 and 2009.

In the United States, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Japan and Korean Affairs Jim Zumwalt said in June 6 testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific that the U.S. government will “engage constructively” with North Korea if Pyongyang understands that there will be “no rewards for provocations.”

Although North Korea continues “actively to defy” UN Security Council resolutions, international sanctions “appeared to have slowed” the country’s activities in areas such as development of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, according to a report to the UN Security Council on the implementation of the sanctions imposed by the resolutions.

Sanctions Tighten on Iran

Kelsey Davenport

Additional U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s banking and oil sectors went into effect June 28, further restricting Iran’s ability to export oil and isolating the country from the international financial system.

The U.S. sanctions, which are intended to pressure Iran to address international concerns about its nuclear program, are part of the fiscal year 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, which was signed into law Dec. 31. (See ACT, January/February 2012.) The provisions of the law that went into effect June 28 prevent foreign banks from accessing existing accounts or opening new accounts in the United States if they process oil-related transactions with the Central Bank of Iran. The president can waive the sanctions on countries that continue to import Iranian oil after he has certified that they have “significantly reduced” their purchases from Iran. Waivers are granted for six-month periods, but can be renewed.

The day the sanctions went into effect, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced China and Singapore had met the significant-reduction standard and were eligible to continue importing oil from Iran without penalty.

The last-minute exemption for China did not come as a surprise. Clinton hinted on June 20 that a waiver could be in the works, saying that Beijing was “slowly but surely” taking actions to reduce its oil purchases from Tehran.

In response to the granting of the waiver, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), one of the authors of the sanctions legislation, said in a June 28 statement that Clinton had assured him that China “met the significant reduction standard.” However, he said that China must also be “mindful” that under the terms of the law such a reduction is required every 180 days for renewal of the waiver and that this would be expected from all countries to “qualify for future exemptions.”

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), in a June 28 press release, described the Chinese waiver as “a free pass to Iran’s biggest enabler” and called on Congress to “strengthen sanctions” against Tehran.

With China and Singapore, the Obama administration certified that 20 countries would be exempt from the sanctions. Earlier in the month, Clinton announced that seven countries—India, Malaysia, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Turkey—had received waivers and can continue to import Iranian oil without penalty. The June 11 announcement was the second such determination. In March, Japan and 10 EU countries were granted waivers. The EU countries, however, will not be able to continue importing Iranian oil under the waiver after July 1, when an EU embargo on Iranian oil goes into effect. In a June 25 press release, the Council of the European Union reaffirmed that oil import contracts with Iran must be “terminated by July 1.”

In the June 28 statement, Clinton cited figures from the International Energy Agency, which found that Iran’s average daily oil exports dropped from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2011 to a current average of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. This represents nearly $8 billion in lost revenues every quarter, and is a “clear demonstration” to Tehran of the “enormous economic cost” of continuing to violate “international nuclear obligations,” she said. She urged Iran to take “concrete steps” to resolve the nuclear issue or face “continuing pressure and isolation.”

Insurance Ban

In addition to banning imports of Iranian oil, the EU decision that will take effect July 1 prohibits companies in EU member countries from insuring tankers transporting Iranian crude oil to any country. Tankers are unable to transport crude oil without protection and indemnity insurance coverage. As a result, even if countries receive a waiver from the United States allowing them to purchase Iranian oil without financial sanctions, some may be prevented from continuing imports if they cannot obtain other insurance guarantees to cover the tankers.

Some countries are arranging alternative means to cover the loss of insurance after July 1. In June, Japan passed a law that allows the government to provide the necessary insurance guarantees for the oil tankers. India is allowing state-run oil refineries to import oil on Iranian tankers insured by state guarantees from Tehran, and China was reportedly looking into similar measures. The South Korean government, despite receiving a waiver from the United States to continue importing Iranian oil, said it will stop the imports on July 1 and is not pursuing sovereign guarantees. These four countries are among the top purchasers of Iranian oil.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius indicated that the European Union could adopt further sanctions. In a statement following negotiations in Moscow between Iran and six world powers over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program (see page 27), he said that sanctions will “continue to be toughened” if Iran “refuses to negotiate seriously.”

New U.S. Sanctions Urged

With no agreement coming out of the Moscow talks, members of Congress have indicated that further sanctions designed to isolate Iran could be passed.

In a bipartisan effort, 44 senators called on the administration to take additional steps against Tehran if it failed to address certain concerns about its nuclear program. In the June 15 letter to President Barack Obama, the senators called for “significantly increasing the pressure” on Iran through sanctions if no “substantive agreement” was reached during the June 18-19 talks in Moscow.

The letter also stated that unless Iran complied with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and UN Security Council resolutions, it should not be relieved of any current sanctions or those that went into effect June 28.

In a June 19 statement, Ros-Lehtinen called on the United States and other countries to take further measures, saying the countries need to impose “game-changing sanctions” that would “compel” Iran to “abandon its nuclear program now.”

Ros-Lehtinen has authored legislation that would strengthen existing sanctions against Iran’s energy and financial sectors. The legislation passed in the House in December, and a slightly different version passed the Senate in May.

Additional U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s banking and oil sectors went into effect June 28, further restricting Iran’s ability to export oil and isolating the country from the international financial system.

Sanctions Tighten on Iran

By Kelsey Davenport

Additional U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s banking and oil sectors went into effect June 28, further restricting Iran’s ability to export oil and isolating the country from the international financial system.

The U.S. sanctions, which are intended to pressure Iran to address international concerns about its nuclear program, are part of the fiscal year 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, which was signed into law Dec. 31. (See ACT, January/February 2012.) The provisions of the law that went into effect June 28 prevent foreign banks from accessing existing accounts or opening new accounts in the United States if they process oil-related transactions with the Central Bank of Iran. The president can waive the sanctions on countries that continue to import Iranian oil after he has certified that they have “significantly reduced” their purchases from Iran. Waivers are granted for six-month periods, but can be renewed.

The day the sanctions went into effect, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced China and Singapore had met the significant-reduction standard and were eligible to continue importing oil from Iran without penalty.

The last-minute exemption for China did not come as a surprise. Clinton hinted on June 20 that a waiver could be in the works, saying that Beijing was “slowly but surely” taking actions to reduce its oil purchases from Tehran.

In response to the granting of the waiver, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), one of the authors of the sanctions legislation, said in a June 28 statement that Clinton had assured him that China “met the significant reduction standard.” However, he said that China must also be “mindful” that under the terms of the law such a reduction is required every 180 days for renewal of the waiver and that this would be expected from all countries to “qualify for future exemptions.”

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), in a June 28 press release, described the Chinese waiver as “a free pass to Iran’s biggest enabler” and called on Congress to “strengthen sanctions” against Tehran.

With China and Singapore, the Obama administration certified that 20 countries would be exempt from the sanctions. Earlier in the month, Clinton announced that seven countries—India, Malaysia, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Turkey—had received waivers and can continue to import Iranian oil without penalty. The June 11 announcement was the second such determination. In March, Japan and 10 EU countries were granted waivers. The EU countries, however, will not be able to continue importing Iranian oil under the waiver after July 1, when an EU embargo on Iranian oil goes into effect. In a June 25 press release, the Council of the European Union reaffirmed that oil import contracts with Iran must be “terminated by July 1.”

In the June 28 statement, Clinton cited figures from the International Energy Agency, which found that Iran’s average daily oil exports dropped from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2011 to a current average of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. This represents nearly $8 billion in lost revenues every quarter, and is a “clear demonstration” to Tehran of the “enormous economic cost” of continuing to violate “international nuclear obligations,” she said. She urged Iran to take “concrete steps” to resolve the nuclear issue or face “continuing pressure and isolation.”

Insurance Ban

In addition to banning imports of Iranian oil, the EU decision that will take effect July 1 prohibits companies in EU member countries from insuring tankers transporting Iranian crude oil to any country. Tankers are unable to transport crude oil without protection and indemnity insurance coverage. As a result, even if countries receive a waiver from the United States allowing them to purchase Iranian oil without financial sanctions, some may be prevented from continuing imports if they cannot obtain other insurance guarantees to cover the tankers.

Some countries are arranging alternative means to cover the loss of insurance after July 1. In June, Japan passed a law that allows the government to provide the necessary insurance guarantees for the oil tankers. India is allowing state-run oil refineries to import oil on Iranian tankers insured by state guarantees from Tehran, and China was reportedly looking into similar measures. The South Korean government, despite receiving a waiver from the United States to continue importing Iranian oil, said it will stop the imports on July 1 and is not pursuing sovereign guarantees. These four countries are among the top purchasers of Iranian oil.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius indicated that the European Union could adopt further sanctions. In a statement following negotiations in Moscow between Iran and six world powers over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program (see page 27), he said that sanctions will “continue to be toughened” if Iran “refuses to negotiate seriously.”

New U.S. Sanctions Urged

With no agreement coming out of the Moscow talks, members of Congress have indicated that further sanctions designed to isolate Iran could be passed.

In a bipartisan effort, 44 senators called on the administration to take additional steps against Tehran if it failed to address certain concerns about its nuclear program. In the June 15 letter to President Barack Obama, the senators called for “significantly increasing the pressure” on Iran through sanctions if no “substantive agreement” was reached during the June 18-19 talks in Moscow.

The letter also stated that unless Iran complied with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and UN Security Council resolutions, it should not be relieved of any current sanctions or those that went into effect June 28.

In a June 19 statement, Ros-Lehtinen called on the United States and other countries to take further measures, saying the countries need to impose “game-changing sanctions” that would “compel” Iran to “abandon its nuclear program now.”

Ros-Lehtinen has authored legislation that would strengthen existing sanctions against Iran’s energy and financial sectors. The legislation passed in the House in December, and a slightly different version passed the Senate in May.

Additional U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s banking and oil sectors went into effect June 28, further restricting Iran’s ability to export oil and isolating the country from the international financial system.

Iran, P5+1 Move to Technical Talks

Kelsey Davenport

Senior-level talks between Iran and six world powers over Tehran’s nuclear program are on hold, as the lead representatives from the two sides decided in Moscow on June 18-19 to wait to schedule a fourth round of negotiations until after a lower-level technical meeting is held on July 3.

The purpose of the July experts meeting in Istanbul is to “provide further clarification” on the proposal made by the six countries—China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—according to Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief and the lead negotiator for the six powers. Speaking at a press conference at the end of the Moscow talks, she also said the technical talks will allow the six powers to “study the issues” Iran raised during the June meeting.

Iran and the six countries, known as the P5+1, have held three rounds of senior-level talks this year on international concerns relating to Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiations between the parties resumed in April after a 15-month hiatus. (See ACT, May 2012.)

A fourth round of negotiations is still possible, Ashton said at the press conference. After the technical-level meeting and “contact” between deputy negotiators, she and the lead Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili, would discuss “prospects for a future meeting at the political level,” she said.

Although Ashton said that “significant gaps” remained between the two parties, she stated that “critical issues” had been discussed and that Iran addressed “the substance” of the issues for the first time.

Jalili expressed optimism that the technical-level talks could narrow the differences between the two sides. In his remarks at the press conference, he said an experts-level meeting could bring the parties “closer together” and that it was an “important result” of the Moscow talks.

Views outside of Moscow, however, were mixed. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said on June 20 that the United States did not want “talks for talks’ sake” and that the technical-level meeting is an opportunity to “close some of the gaps in comprehension.” British Prime Minister David Cameron characterized the Moscow talks as a “missed opportunity,” saying there had been a “lack of progress.” He called on Iran to return to talks “willing to negotiate seriously.”

Moscow Proposals

Two proposals were discussed during the talks, one put forward by the P5+1 and the other by Iran. Ashton characterized the exchanges over the positions as “detailed, tough, and frank.”

The P5+1 proposal was the same one that the six powers put forward during the second round of talks in Baghdad in May, according to Nuland. It focuses on suspending the enrichment of uranium to the 20 percent level, shipping Iran’s stockpile of 20 percent-enriched uranium out of the country, halting enrichment activities at the Fordow enrichment facility, and cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In return, Iran would receive fuel plates for its Tehran Research Reactor, assistance with nuclear safety, and spare parts for civilian aircraft.

Iran maintains that it needs to enrich uranium to 20 percent in order to fabricate fuel for the Tehran reactor, which produces medical isotopes. Uranium enriched to 20 percent, however, can be converted into weapons-grade material more quickly than uranium enriched to the levels required for power reactors, which Iran also produces. By suspending 20 percent enrichment, shipping the current stockpile of 20 percent-enriched uranium out of the country, and providing Iran with fuel fabricated elsewhere for the Tehran reactor, the P5+1 proposal would extend the time required if Iran decided to pursue nuclear weapons while still allowing Tehran to produce medical isotopes. Suspending the 20 percent enrichment at Fordow is of particular concern to the United States and other countries because the location of the nuclear facility, deep inside a mountain, would make a military strike against it difficult.

In her June 19 press briefing, Nuland described the P5+1 as “completely united” behind the proposal.

Further details on the Iranian five-point plan first presented in Baghdad emerged during the Moscow talks. A June 18 article in The Guardian outlined the five points of the Iranian plan as acknowledgment of Iran’s right to enrich uranium in tandem with the “operationalisation” of a fatwa issued by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that condemned the pursuit of nuclear weapons as forbidden in Islam; sanctions relief in return for cooperating with the IAEA; cooperation on nuclear energy and safety; confidence-building measures, including a possible limit on production of 20 percent-enriched uranium; and cooperation on regional and non-nuclear issues.

In his remarks at the Moscow press conference, Jalili’s description of the proposal was consistent with but more general than the Guardian account. He said Iran mentioned four nuclear-related points during the negotiations: “confidence building, cooperation in clarification, opposition to weapons of mass destruction, and normal nuclear cooperation.” Any future agreements would have to recognize Iran’s rights in these areas, “particularly 20 percent enrichment,” Jalili said.

Senators Call for End to Talks

Prior to the Moscow talks, a bipartisan group of 44 U.S. senators sent a letter to President Barack Obama, urging him to abandon the P5+1 talks with Iran if an agreement was not reached in Moscow. Specifically, the letter said that the “absolute minimum steps” for Iran to take include shutting down the Fordow enrichment facility, halting enrichment above 5 percent, and sending the stockpile of uranium enriched above 5 percent out of the country. If Tehran were to “verifiably implement” these actions, it would demonstrate Iran’s commitment to the negotiations and justify further talks, the letter said. The senators also called for further sanctions against Iran if a “substantive agreement” was not reached in Moscow (see next story).

In a statement made after the talks, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), one of the organizers of the letter, said that negotiations were the “preferred forum” for an agreement, but in “their absence,” Congress will “pursue other mechanisms,” including further sanctions, to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

In a June 20 House Armed Services Committee hearing on Iran’s nuclear program, Rep. Buck McKeon (R-Calif.), the committee chairman, said the “intensive diplomatic and economic steps” taken to convince Iran to abandon “military nuclear ambitions” do not appear to have succeeded.

No Agreement With IAEA

Iran met with the IAEA on June 8 in Vienna, but the agency and Tehran failed to make progress on signing a framework agreement to resolve the IAEA’s outstanding concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.

Going into the Vienna meeting between IAEA Deputy Director-General Herman Nackaerts and Iran’s envoy to the agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, expectations were raised that a deal could be reached. In May, after a short-notice trip to Tehran, IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano said the sides were “close” to agreement on a “structured approach” for addressing concerns over Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. (See ACT, June 2012.) Iran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.

The structured approach would create a framework for agency inspections and an Iranian response to concerns the IAEA had expressed, in a report last November, about the potential military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program. (See ACT, December 2011.) Some experts had speculated that a framework agreement with the IAEA may have given Iran leverage at the Moscow talks to press for some sanctions relief or a delay in the implementation of a July 1 EU oil embargo.

Nackaerts characterized the June meeting as “disappointing,” saying that there had been “no progress.” According to his statement, Iran was presented with a revised document in Vienna that addressed Tehran’s “earlier stated concerns.” Iran, however, “raised issues we have already discussed and added new ones.”

Soltanieh said the issues surrounding the discussions were “complicated” and that he hoped a venue for new discussions would be determined soon so that the parties could “conclude” the structured approach. The two sides did not set a date for their next meeting.

Just two days before meeting with Nackaerts, Soltanieh addressed the IAEA Board of Governors during its quarterly meeting, saying that Iran intended to “engage and work intensively” with the agency “with expectation of prompt closure” of the concerns over the possible military dimensions of Tehran’s nuclear program.

Senior-level talks between Iran and six world powers over Tehran’s nuclear program are on hold, as the lead representatives from the two sides decided in Moscow on June 18-19 to wait to schedule a fourth round of negotiations until after a lower-level technical meeting is held on July 3.

North Korea Urged Not to Test

Kelsey Davenport

China, Japan, and South Korea agreed not to “accept further nuclear tests or provocations from North Korea,” according to a May 13 statement by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. Lee issued the statement from Beijing at the end of a trilateral meeting in May, which included a discussion of Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

North Korea is believed to be preparing for a nuclear test at its Punggye-ri test site, following a failed attempt to launch a satellite into orbit with a Unha-3 rocket in April. (See ACT, May 2012.) It has conducted two previous nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.

Although Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao did not directly mention North Korea in his statement at the end of the meeting, he said that all parties in the region needed to “display goodwill” to “ease confrontation and return to the right track of dialogue and negotiations.”

Despite the ambiguity of Wen’s statement, China is reportedly working behind the scenes to urge North Korea not to detonate a nuclear device and is considering retaliatory steps if Pyongyang moves forward with the test, according to a May 16 Reuters report. The news service quoted several sources as saying that China was concerned that a third test would give the United States greater cause to increase its military presence in the region and would cause environmental damage along the Chinese-North Korean border. The sources also said that Beijing would consider sanctioning North Korea in response to a nuclear test.

According to Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency, “a military measure such as a nuclear test” was not planned around the failed launch, but the country would “bolster” its nuclear deterrence for self-defense against “hostile policy.”

Some analysts predict that North Korea will use highly enriched uranium in the anticipated test to demonstrate progress in its uranium-enrichment capabilities. The earlier tests used plutonium.

 

China, Japan, and South Korea agreed not to “accept further nuclear tests or provocations from North Korea,” according to a May 13 statement by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. Lee issued the statement from Beijing at the end of a trilateral meeting in May, which included a discussion of Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

IAEA, Iran Close to Deal, Amano Says

Kelsey Davenport

A deal allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to pursue its investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program could be signed “quite soon,” IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano said May 22.

Amano flew to Tehran on May 21 to continue negotiations with Iranian officials on a framework agreement for resolving the outstanding concerns raised by the agency in a November 2011 report to the IAEA Board of Governors. An annex to the report listed the agency’s suspicions over Iran’s suspected warhead development program. (See ACT, December 2011.) The board requested that the IAEA and Iran “intensify their dialogue” to clarify the “unresolved issues.”

During the visit, Amano met with several high-ranking officials, including Saeed Jalili, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator. Jalili characterized his meeting with Amano as “very good” and said that Iran and the IAEA would have “good cooperation in the future.”

Although Amano conceded that “some differences” remained, he said there was an “important development on the structured approach document” that the two parties had been negotiating. Neither Amano nor Jalili elaborated on the differences that remained to be negotiated or when the agreement was expected to be completed, but in a May 25 IAEA report on the status of Iran’s nuclear program, Amano invited Iran to “expedite final agreement on the structured approach.”

U.S. Department of State spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said on May 22 that the United States supports Amano’s efforts to resolve the IAEA’s areas of concern, but said Washington would be looking for “implementation” and for steps by Iran to “truly follow through and provide access” to agency inspectors.

Amano’s announcement that the IAEA and Iran were close to reaching an agreement came the day before Iran resumed talks on May 23 in Baghdad with the so-called P5+1, which includes the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

The IAEA and Iran have met on three previous occasions this year to discuss an agreement to allow further agency investigations into the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program. The most recent meeting was held May 14-15 in Vienna between Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, and IAEA Deputy Director-General Herman Nackaerts. Progress at the Vienna meeting is believed to have spurred Amano’s short-notice visit to Tehran. Before leaving Vienna, he said it was the “right time to reach agreement.” This was Amano’s first visit to the country since assuming the IAEA’s top position in 2009.

One of the areas of disagreement prior to Amano’s visit to Tehran was the IAEA’s request to inspect a building at the Parchin military complex where the agency was concerned that high-explosives tests may have been conducted. The IAEA asked to inspect the facility during visits to Iran in January and February of this year, but Iranian officials denied the requests. Tehran stated that a framework agreement must be in place before the IAEA conducts any visits to the site.

In the annex to the November 2011 report, the IAEA revealed that it obtained information that Iran had built a “large explosives containment vessel, or chamber” and installed it at Parchin in 2000. Such a chamber could be used for testing the explosives necessary to detonate a nuclear device. In the original work plan that the IAEA submitted to Iran on Feb. 20, Parchin topped the list of concerns that Tehran needed to address.

In the May 25 report, the IAEA indicated that it had obtained additional information on Parchin that “further corroborates” the evidence on explosive testing presented in the 2011 annex.

Tehran allowed the IAEA to visit Parchin twice in 2005, but the agency did not inspect the building that houses the chamber in question. Amano said that the agency’s interest in visiting Parchin was discussed in Tehran and would be addressed in the agreement, but he provided no specifics.

Although an agreement may be near, agency officials have expressed concern over the past several months that Tehran may be attempting to clean up evidence that could indicate the existence of a nuclear weapons program. Iranian officials dismissed the initial allegations that any such efforts were underway. In its May report, the IAEA formally documented its position. The agency said that, using satellite imagery, it had observed “extensive activities” around the areas to which it had requested access. The IAEA had not observed any such activities, which could interfere with “effective verification,” for a “number of years,” the report said.

A deal allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to pursue its investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program could be signed “quite soon,” IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano said May 22.

P5+1 and Iran Claim Progress in Talks

Kelsey Davenport

Following two days of discussions last month in Baghdad, Iran agreed to meet again in June with six world powers to “expand” on the “common ground” that the two sides identified during negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, Catherine Ashton, who represented the six countries, said May 24.

Although the two sides did not reach an agreement, they said they had made progress during the May 23-24 discussions. Talks are scheduled to reconvene June 18-19 in Moscow.

The Baghdad talks originally were to last for one day, but were extended to two. Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said it was “clear that both sides want to make progress” but that “significant differences” remain to be worked out. She also said that the six countries—China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—known as the P5+1, remain “united in seeking a swift diplomatic resolution” to international concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and expect Tehran to take “concrete and practical steps… to meet its international obligations.”

Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili described the atmosphere of the talks as “positive for the two sides to talk about their issues,” but said that getting the six powers to accept Iran’s “clearly irrefutable” right to uranium enrichment was an obstacle during the negotiations.

The Baghdad meetings were the second round of talks between the P5+1 and Tehran this year after negotiations broke down in January 2011. During the first round of talks, on April 14 in Istanbul, the two sides agreed on a process for moving forward in future negotiations. Ashton described it as an incremental approach with reciprocal actions. (See ACT, May 2012.) Both sides described the Istanbul meetings as positive.

Before the Baghdad meeting, Michael Mann, Ashton’s spokesman, said the P5+1 expected gradual progress rather than a final deal. After the talks concluded, White House spokesman Jay Carney said the Obama administration did not expect “breakthrough moments” during the talks and that the “expectations” for the talks, namely progress and “seriousness on the part of the Iranians,” had been met.

Baghdad Proposals

Two proposals, one from each side, were discussed at the meetings.

Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 20 percent was the focus of the P5+1 proposal and was characterized by Mann as one of delegation’s “main concerns,” according to media accounts. The proposal called for Iran to end its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent and ship its stockpile of the material out of the country. In return, Tehran would receive highly enriched uranium fabricated into fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor, nuclear security assistance, and some material incentives, including spare parts for civilian aircraft, which are scarce in Iran.

According to a report last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has produced a total of 145 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent, up from the 109 kilograms the IAEA reported in February. Iran says it requires the higher enrichment level for the production of medical isotopes in the Tehran reactor. In the days before the talks, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced that it had delivered nuclear fuel plates, produced domestically at the Isfahan nuclear complex, to the reactor. The announcement said that one of the plates was loaded into the core of the reactor to begin producing medical isotopes.

The international community remains concerned that the uranium enriched to 20 percent could be further refined and used for a nuclear weapon. Although weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90 percent, the move from 20 percent to 90 percent requires much less work than beginning with uranium enriched to a reactor-grade level.

Jalili described the P5+1 proposal as “one suggestion” on uranium enrichment and said that any cooperation by Iran on halting enrichment to the 20 percent level was dependent on the “preservation” of Iran’s right to enrichment. The United States has indicated that it is not necessarily opposed to Iran producing uranium enriched to 5 percent if the proper safeguards are in place.

Iran also objected to the lack of sanctions relief in the P5+1 proposal. Iranian officials at the talks described that language as “unbalanced” and not in line with the “reciprocal” approach agreed in Istanbul, media outlets reported. An official from another country reportedly described Jalili as “relentless” in his pursuit of sanctions relief, which Carney said provides Iran with an “impetus” to take the negotiations “very seriously.” U.S. officials indicated that the sanctions relief that Iran was seeking would come later if Tehran followed through on any initial agreement.

News reports described the Iranian proposal as a five-point plan, which offered greater international access to its nuclear facilities in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions on its oil industry and recognition of its right to enrichment. It is unclear how the Iranian proposal dealt with the 20 percent enrichment question, but when Ashton mentioned the proposal in her statement at the end of the talks, she said that Iran “declared its readiness to address the issue.”

Increased Sanctions

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton quashed any speculation that there could be sanctions relief immediately resulting from the Baghdad talks, saying May 24 that the sanctions “will remain in place and continue to move forward.”

Tougher sanctions against Iran’s oil industry and central bank are scheduled to enter into force in the upcoming month. In the United States, the tighter sanctions are part of the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, which was signed into law in December 2011. (See ACT, January/February 2012.) On June 28, the United States is scheduled to begin sanctioning all foreign banks that process Iranian oil transactions through Iran’s central bank. The president can waive those sanctions if the bank’s country has demonstrated a “significant reduction” in its Iranian oil imports.

In February, the Obama administration released a report indicating that global oil needs could be met by increasing the capacity of non-Iranian sources without creating a spike in prices. Under the defense authorization act, this finding was necessary for the sanctions to begin on June 28. As a result, banks that continue to process oil transactions without a wavier after that date will be prevented from opening accounts in the United States and will have limited access to any of their existing accounts. Iranian oil sold for cash or under barter agreements would be exempt from these sanctions.

As of April, the last month for which an official list was available, waivers have been granted to 10 European countries and Japan. South Korea is believed to be in the process of applying for a waiver, and during a May visit to India, Clinton pressed New Delhi to cut its oil imports from Iran. Although India indicated that it is planning to push local refineries to cut imports from Iran by 15 to 20 percent, the administration has not yet issued a waiver. India, Japan, and South Korea are among the top purchasers of Iranian oil. China, the largest importer of Iranian oil, does not have a waiver.

Further sanctions legislation is making its way through Congress. On May 22, the Senate passed legislation that would strengthen and expand existing sanctions against Iran’s energy and financial sectors. The legislation would broaden the criteria under which companies are placed on the sanctions list, which covers foreign firms that invest in Iran’s energy sector and do business with Iranian firms involved with uranium production and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The House of Representatives passed its own version of the bill last year.

The EU’s sanctions will tighten on July 1 when its embargo on the import of Iranian oil goes into effect. After the conclusion of the Baghdad talks, British Foreign Secretary William Hague left little room for doubt that, without “urgent, concrete steps” by Iran to address the international community’s concerns about its nuclear program, EU sanctions would enter into force as planned on July 1. Hague said that if Iran failed to respond in a “serious manner,” the pressure from sanctions “will intensify.”

In addition to limiting oil imports to EU member countries, the package passed by the European Parliament in January will strengthen sanctions on Iran’s financial sector and prevent European insurers from providing protection and indemnity for tankers carrying Iranian oil. Without this insurance, any countries continuing to import Iranian oil will be forced to look elsewhere for insurance on the tankers’ contents. China and India are reported to be making such arrangements.

Following two days of discussions last month in Baghdad, Iran agreed to meet again in June with six world powers to “expand” on the “common ground” that the two sides identified during negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, Catherine Ashton, who represented the six countries, said May 24.

NAS Report Raises Awareness, Underscores Value of CTBT

The March 30 release of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) generated significant media attention, several opeds, and welcoming statements from key senators. Released at a press briefing late on a Friday afternoon before a two-week Congressional recess, the NAS study -- "The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban - Technical Issues for the United States"-- might easily have been overlooked by the media and members of Congress. Fortunately, long-awaited report was covered by several prominent news outlets. Matt's Wald's story "U.S. Has No Need to...

States Make New Nuclear Security Pledges

Kelsey Davenport

Meeting in Seoul last month for the second nuclear security summit, the leaders of more than four dozen countries pledged to take specific actions to strengthen fissile material security and prevent nuclear terrorism.

The summit communiqué, a consensus document endorsed by the 53 countries and four international organizations attending the March 26-27 meeting, encouraged participants to announce “specific actions intended to minimize the use” of highly enriched uranium (HEU) by the end of 2013. Although South Korean President Lee Myung-bak acknowledged during the summit’s closing press conference on March 27 that the statement did not impose a legal obligation, he said the setting of a deadline was of “great significance” and that the minimization of HEU use would be carried on in a “more transparent way” as a result of this agreement.

The communiqué encourages states to “consider” the timely removal and disposition of their nuclear materials if it is “consistent with national security considerations.”

According to the list in a summary document issued at the end of the meeting, six countries—Australia, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, and Poland—declared that they would return HEU to the country of origin, with some of them specifying that they would complete their work by the end of 2013. HEU, which can be used to make nuclear weapons, has applications in research and medicine.

Belgium’s and Italy’s commitments included plutonium, another nuclear explosive material that has civilian applications.

The Seoul meeting comes two years after President Barack Obama convened the first nuclear security summit in Washington in April 2010. At that time, participating countries endorsed the goal of securing all nuclear materials within four years. (See ACT, May 2010).

During the press conference ending the Seoul meeting, Lee said the reduction of HEU and plutonium use was the summit’s “core accomplishment.” About 480 kilograms of HEU has been removed from eight countries over the past two years, he said. Ukraine accounts for about half of that total, as government officials announced in March that 243 kilograms of HEU had been removed from the country over the previous two years and returned to Russia for down-blending into low-enriched uranium (LEU).

Since the 2010 summit, Chile and Mexico also declared that they had eliminated their stockpiles of HEU. At the summit, Sweden announced the removal of its plutonium.

Speaking in Seoul, Obama said that “more of the world’s nuclear materials will never fall into the hands of terrorists” as a result of the summit process. In the statement, Obama warned against “complacency” and said that “dangerous materials are still vulnerable in too many places.”

Building Up the Framework

While renewing the political commitments from the Washington summit on strengthening nuclear security and preventing nuclear terrorism, the communiqué encouraged countries to take further actions to strengthen the global nuclear security framework. Lee described the communiqué as a set of “comprehensive measures” that countries should take to “prevent nuclear and radiological terrorism.”

In addition to the provisions on minimizing the use of HEU and plutonium, the communiqué recommended actions in 10 other areas, including information security, security of radiological sources, and the interface between nuclear safety and security. These issues were less prominently addressed at the Washington summit.

Beyond the actions recommended in the communiqué, 49 of the 53 participating countries offered specific national commitments at the Seoul summit that were included in the summary document. Similar commitments, also referred to as “house gifts,” were made by 30 countries in Washington in 2010. More than 80 percent of those commitments were completed prior to the 2012 summit.

Many of the national commitments made in Seoul were offered by groups of participating countries. These joint statements, or “gift baskets,” were a new feature of the Seoul summit and included pledges of cooperative action in areas such as security of radiological materials; nuclear information security; development of high-density LEU fuel, which is needed for the conversion of some reactors from HEU to LEU use; and HEU use minimization.

Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and the United States offered a joint statement on minimizing the use of HEU for medical isotope production. Currently, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands use HEU to produce molybdenum-99, which is a radiological isotope widely used for treatment of medical conditions such as cancer, heart disease, and brain disorders. These three countries produce nearly half of the world’s supply of Mo-99.

In their statement, the four countries pledged to support conversion of all European facilities producing Mo-99 to LEU by 2015, subject to regulatory approval. As part of the pledge, the United States said it would supply the producer countries with HEU to ensure continued production of Mo-99 until they complete the conversions.

Belgium, France, South Korea, and the United States also made a joint commitment, declaring that minimizing the use of civilian HEU advances the “ultimate goal of nuclear security.” Those four countries said they would collaborate on the development of a high-density LEU fuel powder. According to the joint statement, the United States will provide South Korea with LEU, and South Korea, using a technology developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, will manufacture the powder. Belgium and France agreed to test the fuel in their research reactors. Experts will then assess the performance of the LEU fuel.

The four countries agreed in the joint statement that if the method proves viable, they would share information and provide “necessary assistance” to aid countries in converting reactors to use the fuel. Lee said he expected the assessment to be completed by 2016.

Thirty-one of the countries participating in the summit also endorsed the Multinational Statement on Nuclear Information Security. The statement included 13 proposed actions that countries were encouraged to take to strengthen and protect information relating to nuclear security.

In addition to the six countries’ pledges to repatriate HEU and plutonium, the summary document listed a number of national commitments offered by participating leaders in Seoul. China, Hungary, and Nigeria made commitments to convert reactors to LEU fuel use, while Russia and South Africa indicated that they would consider the feasibility of reactor conversions. Canada indicated that it would identify an “alternate method” to replace its use of HEU for medical isotope production, the document said.

A number of countries pledged to take actions that would increase the security of radiological sources. According to the document, Armenia, Brazil, Morocco, Poland, the United States, and other countries made specific commitments to pass new regulations or update existing laws to increase the security of radiological sources.

Progress Since 2010

An additional objective of the Seoul summit was to celebrate the progress made since the 2010 meeting. Although the summit process did not adopt a tracking system to monitor national progress, many participating countries highlighted their achievements in national statements and the summary document.

Completion of the national commitments included funding contributions for nuclear security activities by eight countries. Nine countries sponsored training activities, conferences, and the creation of nuclear security centers since the 2010 summit. International agreements such as the 2005 amendment to the Convention for the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism were ratified by six countries acting on their national commitments.

The 2005 amendment sets legally binding obligations for member states to protect nuclear materials and facilities and expands cooperation on preventing nuclear smuggling. The Seoul communiqué set 2014 as the goal for the treaty’s entry into force. At the press conference, Lee announced that 55 of the 97 necessary ratifications of the amendment had been completed. The anti-terrorism convention criminalizes the planning or implementation of nuclear terrorism. It entered into force in July 2007.

Among the unmet commitments was the U.S. pledge to complete ratification of the anti-terrorism convention and the physical protection amendment. Argentina and France also have not fulfilled commitments to ratify treaties.

Kazakhstan and the United States pledged to convert reactors using HEU, but did not finish those efforts before Seoul. In both cases, the conversions are contingent on the development of an LEU alternative. Canada also committed to return a “large amount” of spent HEU fuel to the United States, but later indicated that the transfer was not likely to be completed until 2018.

The Netherlands will host the third nuclear security summit in 2014, and U.S. officials have indicated that it could be the final one. (See ACT, March 2012). In his statement in Seoul UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that he would “welcome discussions” of the post-2014 nuclear security summit process.

Meeting in Seoul last month for the second nuclear security summit, the leaders of more than four dozen countries pledged to take specific actions to strengthen fissile material security and prevent nuclear terrorism.

New Report Finds NSS Process on Track, But More Work To Do

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For Immediate Release: March 13, 2012

Media Contacts: Michelle Cann, Senior Budget and Policy Analyst, PGS (202-332-1412); Tom Collina, Research Director, ACA (202-463-8270 x104); Kelsey Davenport, Scoville Fellow, ACA (202-463-8270, x114).

(Washington, D.C.) An independent report released today ahead of the March 26-27, 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul finds that states are on track to meet most of the national commitments they made in 2010 to improve the security of nuclear-weapons usable materials worldwide, but that more work, political will, and financial resources are still required to address the ongoing challenge of safeguarding nuclear material.

"States have made significant progress on their 2010 summit national commitments, but that is only half of the story," said Michelle Cann, Senior Budget and Policy Analyst at Partnership for Global Security (PGS) and co-author of the report.

"The commitments on the books will not get the job done. To prevent nuclear terrorism in the years ahead, the global nuclear security system must grow and adapt to new threats," she said.

"Substantial work remains if the summit process is to meet its goal of securing all vulnerable nuclear materials," said Kelsey Davenport, Herbert J. Scoville Peace Fellow at the Arms Control Association (ACA) and co-author of the report.

"The 2010 summit focused attention and galvanized action to better secure nuclear materials, but the actions states took on were never meant to be comprehensive. It would be a huge missed opportunity if states do not make significant new commitments and adopt higher nuclear security standards in Seoul to better safeguard vulnerable nuclear material," she said.

The report, The Nuclear Security Summit: Assessment of National Commitments, published jointly by ACA and PGS, concludes that approximately 80 percent of the 67 national commitments made by 30 global leaders at the 2010 summit in Washington have been completed.

The Seoul Nuclear Security Summit is expected to review states' progress on implementing their commitments and to set the course for future efforts to secure weapons-usable nuclear materials. A third summit is planned for the Netherlands in 2014.

"There is a danger that early successes of the summit process will lead to complacency," said Cann. "It is important to recognize that the nuclear security challenge will not be solved once the 2010 commitments are completed. The Seoul summit must acknowledge that nuclear material security is a long-term challenge that will require stable funding and a global commitment," she said.

"A core achievement of the 2010 summit was that the 47 nations in attendance reached consensus that nuclear terrorism is among the top global security challenges and that strong nuclear material security measures are the most effective way to prevent it," said Davenport. "As a result, vitally important progress has been achieved across the globe," she said.

The 47-page report assesses implementation of commitments by category and by country. Examples of progress made on national commitments over the last two years include:

  • Kazakhstan secured over 13 tons of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium;
  • Chile eliminated its entire stockpile of HEU;
  • The United States and Russia signed a plutonium disposition protocol obligating each country to dispose of 34 metric tons of plutonium, which is enough weapon's grade material for 17,000 nuclear weapons;
  • Russia ended plutonium production; and
  • Ukraine eliminated two-thirds of its HEU (over 100 kilograms) and is expected to clean out its remaining stockpile by the 2012 summit.

Despite this progress, major work remains beyond the commitments that have been made so far.

"The nuclear material security regime has improved over the past ten years, but it still lags behind the nuclear safety, nonproliferation, and arms control regimes," said Kenneth Luongo, President of PGS. "The 2012 summit provides a window of opportunity to begin the process of reframing the nuclear material security debate and initiating some key changes in strategy."

"We cannot wait for the current patchwork of nuclear security arrangements to fail before building a more permanent, cohesive, and comprehensive international nuclear security governance system," said Luongo.

The full report, The Nuclear Security Summit: Assessment of National Commitments, is available online here.

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The Arms Control Association is an independent, membership-based organization dedicated to providing authoritative information and practical policy solutions to address the threats posed by the world's most dangerous weapons.

The Partnership for Global Security analyzes the convergence of the security, technological, and economic issues that are shaping the 21st century's global nuclear and biological challenges.

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(Washington, D.C.) An independent report released today ahead of the March 26-27, 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul finds that states are on track to meet most of the national commitments they made in 2010 to improve the security of nuclear-weapons usable materials worldwide, but that more work, political will, and financial resources are still required to address the ongoing challenge of safeguarding nuclear material.

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