In the Long Run, the Means to Nonproliferation Ends Matters
Statement by Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy, and Thomas Countryman, Chair of the Board, and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation and International Security, June 21, 2025
President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s illegal attacks against the Iranian leadership, civilian targets, and the country's major nuclear sites represents an irresponsible departure from Trump’s pursuit of diplomacy and increases the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran.
The U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear targets, including the deeply fortified, underground Fordow uranium enrichment complex, may temporarily set back Iran's nuclear program, but in the long term, military action is likely to push Iran to determine nuclear weapons are necessary for deterrence and that Washington is not interested in diplomacy.
The consensus view among U.S. intelligence agencies before Israel's bombing campaign began on June 13 was that Iran had not made a decision to move forward on building a bomb, and was several months away, if not longer, from being able to assemble a crude device. There was no imminent threat that Iran was weaponizing its nuclear program before Israel's attack began.
Military strikes alone cannot destroy Iran's extensive nuclear knowledge. The strikes will set Iran’s program back, but at the cost of strengthening Tehran's resolve to reconstitute its sensitive nuclear activities, possibly prompting it to consider withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and possibly proceeding to weaponization.
Although Trump has already claimed victory, it is far too soon to say how much damage the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes have caused to Iran's nuclear program. It will take time, and likely the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Iran, to assess the status of Iran's nuclear activities and account for its nuclear material including the highly-enriched uranium it had already accumulated before the war.
Furthermore, Trump's decision to launch strikes against another sovereign country without authorization for the use of such force by Congress, which is mandated by the Constitution, is an egregious violation of the rule of domestic law.
Though the prospect for negotiations on a longer term framework to contain Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities have been damaged severely, this remains the best possible long-term path to prevent further nuclear weapons proliferation. Trump needs a plan for deescalation and engagement.
The failure to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis will further erode confidence in the global nonproliferation system and encourage more states to consider the pursuit of nuclear weapons to thwart attacks by other nuclear-armed states.
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