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Arms Control Now
The following articles and essays provide additional insight into current developments and issues which our staff and experts are following.
Kelsey Davenport
President Donald Trump announced July 22 that the United States and Saudi Arabia finalized a civil nuclear cooperation agreement. In negotiating this deal, the Trump administration has rejected key nonproliferation standards for U.S. nuclear cooperation that have long-standing bipartisan support and are internationally recognized best practices. This piece answers to frequently asked questions about the U.S-Saudi nuclear agreement and its review process.
The U.S. Defense Department decided earlier this year to conduct a “nuclear strategy review“ rather than a more formal Nuclear Posture Review. The last formal Nuclear Posture Review was completed in late-2022 by the Biden administration, which informed the Pentagon’s 2024 update of the Pentagon’s “Nuclear Weapons Employment” guidance plan.
Engaging the next generation is among the most repeated calls within the nuclear policy community. The cultural and political contexts in which the arms control and disarmament movement exists have changed dramatically over the past decade, and our methods for connecting with the younger members of the public must keep pace to remain effective.
Amb. Do Hung Viet, President of the 11th NPT Review Conference, circulated an updated Draft Outcome Document to states parties on the evening of May 13. Upon circulating the latest draft text, Viet told the assembled delegates that "it represents our best chance for consensus," and he urged states to demonstrate flexibility, calling upon all delegations "to bring forward concrete proposals on how to bridge remaining differences."
Xiaodon Liang
Budget documents indicate the next generation of U.S. nuclear delivery systems will likely be hypersonic glide vehicles. Both the Pentagon and the National Nuclear Security Administration are pursuing initial research work to overcome the technical challenges to a non-ballistic U.S. hypersonic nuclear weapon.
On May 6, Amb. Do Hung Viet, the President of the 11th NPT Review Conference, circulated a relatively concise 13-page "zero draft" of the final conference document and invited states parties to begin offering their feedback. The document was put forward for review just 10 days into the month-long meeting and it takes a focused approach to each of the several major elements of the treaty and the dozens of issues that were raised in general debate statements in the previous days.
As diplomats in New York reach the end of the first week of the four week-long Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon), the meeting is on schedule and on course but it remains highly uncertain whether they can navigate a safe course through a large array of contested issues to arrive at a consensus final document that bolsters and reaffirms support for the treaty and charts out concrete action step for the next five years.
Since the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) entered into force in 1970, the United States and Russia have negotiated agreements that have set verifiable limits on their deadly long-range nuclear arsenals and intermediate-range systems to mitigate the dangers of nuclear arms racing and nuclear war. The process has reduced nuclear dangers, reduced the size of their deadly arsenals and partially fulfilled their obligations under Article VI of the NPT to engage in good faith negotiations on the cessation of the nuclear arms race and on disarmament.
Kelsey Davenport
If U.S. and Iranian negotiators return to Islamabad for a second round of talks, the United States and Iran will need to bridge the gaps on key nuclear issues to reach an agreement. With pragmatic diplomacy and the political will to compromise, a deal is possible. But the nonproliferation value of any nuclear limitations will be minimal without effective verification. Defining the scope of inspections and monitoring mechanisms is arguably the most important component of an effective deal and should be a U.S. priority.
Kelsey Davenport
The Trump administration engaged in three rounds of talks with Iran before striking Iran on Feb. 28. Comments from President Donald Trump's lead negotiator, Steve Witkoff, however, suggest that the White House missed a diplomatic opportunity because the negotiating team was ill-prepared for talks and lacked the technical expertise to engage in effective diplomacy.