Digests and Blog

Nuclear weapons are expensive. That much has been known for some time. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released reports in December 2013 and January 2015 showing that current plans to maintain and eventually rebuild all three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad and its associated warheads will cost American taxpayers roughly $35 billion per year over the next decade, or five to six percent of the plans for national defense spending. Over the next 30 years, the bill could add up to $1 trillion, according to recent report of the National Defense Panel Review of the 2014 Quadrennial Defense…

The international community is close to making a deal with Iran that will block its pathways to nuclear weapons–provided the U.S. Congress does not derail the best chance in over a decade to limit Iran’s nuclear program. In a blatant attempt to undermine U.S. foreign policy and the Obama administration’s negotiations with Iran, 47 Republican Senators wrote to Iran’s leadership warning that the next president could revoke a nuclear deal or that Congress could change the terms. The March 9 letter, led by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is denouncing a deal that has not been reached and threatening to…

Talks Resume March 15: "A good deal is at hand" Following the March 2-6 round of P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Iran nuclear talks in Montreux, Switzerland, statements from the principle negotiators suggest the two sides are close to reaching agreement on the political framework for a comprehensive, long-term nuclear deal. European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told a conference in Latvia, "I believe a good deal is at hand. I also believe that there is not going to be any deal if it is not going to be a good deal."…

March Arrives: Negotiations Advancing; Debate in DC Intensifying Bilateral talks between Iran and members of the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) will resume in Montreux, Switzerland beginning today, March 2, and culminating with a full meeting of the political directors from all seven countries on March 5. The U.S. delegation will include Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Energy Ernie Moniz. They will meet again with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi…

Talks in Geneva Intensify; Another Round Next Week Negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran over the weekend focused on key technical issues, with U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz joining U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Geneva for talks with Iran on a comprehensive nuclear deal. The Feb. 22-23 meetings were Moniz's first as part of the U.S. team negotiating a comprehensive nuclear deal. If an agreement is reached, Moniz will be a key validator. The technical expertise of the Department of Energy will play a critical role in assuring the international community that the limits on Iran's…

Getting Closer.... Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Tehran on Feb. 15 for discussions that included the negotiations on a comprehensive nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States). The talks come soon after Zarif met with a number of foreign ministers on the sidelines of the Feb. 6-8 Munich security conference. Progress was made in Munich, particularly on uranium enrichment, but there are still gaps on that issue and the sequence of sanctions relief that need to be…

Much Ado in Munich.... A flurry of talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran took place during the February 6-8 annual Munich Security Conference. Meetings included two bilateral sessions between Iranian foreign minister and lead negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Feb. 6 and Feb. 8. Zarif also met with EU foreign policy chief and head of the P5+1 negotiating team, Federica Mogherini, and several other foreign ministers from the P5+1 countries over the course of the conference. Kerry said that he does not foresee another extension of the…

The February 5 Washington Post editorial, “The emerging Iran nuclear deal raises major concerns,” accuses the Obama administration of moving the goal post on an Iranian nuclear deal. The editorial says, “where it once aimed to eliminate Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, the administration now appears ready to accept an infrastructure of thousands of Iranian centrifuges.” False. Zero enrichment is not, and has not, been the Obama administration’s aim for a nuclear agreement. Nor is it necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The goal of U.S. policy has been, is, and must be…

On February 2 the Obama administration released its fiscal year (FY) 2016 federal budget request. The request is the administration’s biggest down payment to date on a planned unaffordable and unsustainable nuclear spending binge to rebuild all three legs of the nuclear triad and their associated warheads and supporting infrastructure. The administration’s budget proposal includes significant increases for several strategic nuclear weapons systems, including increase for some programs above what was projected in the FY 2015 budget request (see the chart). Most notably, the budget accelerates…

Updated on February 2, 2015  Iran’s launch of a Fajr (Dawn) observation satellite into orbit on February 2 will undoubtedly confuse the debate over whether or not Iran will soon have an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). It should not; this was not an ICBM-related event. The space launch vehicle (SLV) used in this launch appears to have been a modified Safir, which is based on the Shahab 3 medium-range ballistic missile with an operational range of around 2,000 kilometers. The Simorgh SLV mockup displayed five years ago would, if built, be able to carry a payload 2-3 times heavier…