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Sparking a Buildup: U.S. Missile Defense and China's Nuclear Arsenal
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Table 1: Additional Chinese ICBM Warheads, Based on Expected NMD Plans and Firing Doctrines (Rounded to the Nearest Warhead)
Table 2: Re-entry Vehicle (RV) Characteristics of American ICBMs
Sources: John R. Harvey and Stefan Michalowski, "Nuclear Weapons Safety: The Case of Trident," Science & Global Security, Volume 4, Issue 3 (1994), p. 288, in which they use throw-weight values from teh START Memorandum of Understanding to calculate RV weight by assuming that the bus that carries the RVs is about one half the throw weight. Some warhead yield values are from Rovert S. Norris and William M. Arkin, "U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces, End of 1997," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 1998, p. 71.
Table 3: Upper Limits on Multiple Warheads for Chinese Solid-Fueled Missiles
Sources: Throw-weight estimates are from John Lewis and Hua Di, International Security, Fall 1992, p. 5-40, and Tracking and Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in Maps and Charts, 1998, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, except for the upper bound on the DF-41 from the Federation of American Scientists.
Sparking a Buildup: U.S. Missile Defense and China's Nuclear Arsenal
by Charles Ferguson
Tables Accompanying Text
[Back text]
Table 1: Additional Chinese ICBM Warheads, Based on Expected NMD Plans and Firing Doctrines (Rounded to the Nearest Warhead)
NMD Phase | |||
Firing Doctrine | C-1 (20-100 Interceptors) | C-2 (100 Interceptors) | C-3 (Up to 250 Interceptors) |
Shoot-Look-Shoot | 10-50 | 50 | 125 |
Barrage | 5-25 | 25 | 63 |
Single Shot | 20-100 | 100 | 250 |
Table 2: Re-entry Vehicle (RV) Characteristics of American ICBMs
ICBM | RV Yield [kt] (Warhead Type) | Number of RVs | Throw Weight [kg] | RV Weight [kg] |
MX/Peacekeeper | 300-335 (W87) | 10 | 3,950 | 200 |
Minuteman III | 335 (W78); 170 (W62) |
3 | 1,100 | 185 |
D-5/Trident II | 475 (W88) | 8 | 2,800 | 175 |
C-4/Trident I | 100 (W76) | 8 | 1,500 | 95 |
C-3/Poseidon<21> | 40 (W68) | 14 | 2,000 | 70 |
Table 3: Upper Limits on Multiple Warheads for Chinese Solid-Fueled Missiles
Missile | Throw Weight [kg] | RVs for 175 kg RV (W88 type) |
RVs for 70 kg RV (W68 type) |
DF-21/JL-1 | 600 | 1 | 4 |
DF-31/JL-2 | 700 | 2 | 5 |
DF-41 | 800-1,000 | 2-3 | 5-7 |