With the risks of new nuclear-armed States on the rise, the nuclear non-profileration regime is in danger of collapse. In 2026, Iran will continue to dominate the headlines as the most likely country to exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or develop nuclear weapons in violation of its treaty obligations. Beyond Tehran, however, additional countries are likely to move closer to weaponization as debates about the security value of nuclear deterrence intensify and technical barriers to proliferation erode.
For decades, since the NPT entered into force in 1970, international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons proved remarkably successful. Although three countries—India, Israel, and Pakistan—developed nuclear arsenals outside of the NPT, only North Korea developed the bomb in violation of its NPT obligations. Several factors contributed to the success of nonproliferation efforts, including unity among the nuclear-weapon States in responding to proliferation threats, sustained efforts to limit the spread of technologies necessary for weaponization, and the perceived security value of the NPT.
The U.S.-led international order created a geopolitical environment conducive to these multilateral efforts to prevent proliferation. That order, however, is collapsing. In its place, a new, more dangerous geopolitical environment is emerging. Marked by fraying alliances, aggressive great-power competition, and a U.S. retreat from multilateralism, this new order could lead to a new era of proliferation, as additional States debate the value of nuclear weapons.
Read the full OpEd, published Feb. 5, 2026 at Just Security.