President-elect Donald Trump is retaking office at an inflection point in Iranian nuclear policy. After long denying any interest in nuclear weapons, Iranian officials are now publicly debating the security value of a nuclear deterrent and threatening to pursue nuclear weapons if attacked. This shift in nuclear policy, along with the technical advances that have brought Iran to the threshold of nuclear weapons, poses a serious proliferation challenge that the Trump administration will need to confront immediately upon taking office.
Despite the increasing risk that Iran will weaponize its nuclear program, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continues to emphasize Tehran’s interest in a deal and willingness to negotiate with the incoming U.S. President . Trump, too, appears to have acknowledged the necessity of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran in his second term, even though he withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018 despite Iran’s compliance. In a September press conference, Trump said that the United States has to “make a deal” with Iran because the “consequences are impossible” if the United States fails to do so.
Read the full OpEd, published December 23, 2024, at Just Security.