Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 are not a solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. Prior to Israel’s strike, Iran was on the threshold of nuclear weapons, but the U.S. Intelligence Community consistently assessed that Tehran was not engaged in weaponization. Israel’s strike may have pulled Iran off that technical threshold, but only slightly and likely temporarily. In the long term, Israel’s attack increases the proliferation risk and makes a nuclear armed Iran more likely for several reasons.
First, Israeli strikes cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Militarily, Israel cannot target deeply buried and hardened facilities, including the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, without U.S. assistance. Iran reportedly told the IAEA that at least three significant nuclear sites — at Fordow, Isfahan, and Bushehr — were not impacted by Friday’s strikes. Moreover, the Trump administration has made clear it did not support Israel’s military strikes, making it unlikely that the United States will provide the munitions necessary for penetrating deeply buried facilities. Israel also cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has gained from its pre-2003 nuclear weapons activities and about uranium enrichment. Iran will retain a nuclear weapons capability and can rebuild its ability to produce fissile materials more quickly by focusing on more efficient centrifuges.
Read the full OpEd, published Jan. 13, 2025 at Just Security.