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'Nobody's happy about it': Missile tests increase tensions with North Korea


People watch a TV showing a file photo of North Korea's weapon systems during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, May 9, 2019.{ } (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
People watch a TV showing a file photo of North Korea's weapon systems during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, May 9, 2019. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
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President Donald Trump said Thursday the United States is looking “very seriously” at North Korea’s recent short-range missile tests, which threaten to inject a new obstacle into already-stalled negotiations over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

“Nobody’s happy about it,” Trump said of the latest test at a White House event.

North Korea launched the second round of missile tests in five days Thursday, firing what experts believe were two short-range ballistic missiles from the Sino-ri missile base. One flew 260 miles and the other made it 170 miles, according to the South Korean military.

This followed the launch of several projectiles Saturday with a range of 42 to 124 miles and the testing of a “tactical guided weapon” last month. Although the range of these weapons was limited, North Korea had not conducted any missile tests in the previous 18 months.

“These tests are concerning and indicate a growing impatience in Pyongyang over the state of negotiations with the United States,” said Alexandra Bell, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

The latest missile tests do not violate a voluntary moratorium leader Kim Jong Un placed on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missiles last year, and they do not directly defy any agreement between the U.S. and North Korea. According to Bell, this suggests the North Koreans are calibrating their actions to avoid provoking an aggressive response.

“Of course, escalating provocations has been a standard North Korean tactic when involved in various negotiations over the years,” she said. “They would do well to practice caution moving ahead, as there are those around President Trump who would use deteriorating diplomatic conditions as an excuse for abandoning negotiations altogether.”

Philip Yun, executive director of Ploughshares Fund, said North Korea acting out like this was predictable after a summit between Kim and Trump in Hanoi ended abruptly in February. Kim is under pressure internally due to crippling economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, which he failed to get lifted in Hanoi, so he needs to look strong for a domestic audience.

“North Korea does stuff when they feel like they’re not being paid attention to. Here, I think they’re poking us,” said Yun, who was involved in nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang under President Bill Clinton in the 1990s.

Eric Brewer, a visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former director of counter-proliferation for the National Security Council, noted North Korea also seems to be framing some of these tests as a response to South Korean military exercises.

“This is North Korea’s playbook to slowly escalate, to try to put pressure on the U.S., to try to divide the U.S. and its allies,” Brewer said.

Communication between the Trump administration and Kim’s regime have broken down since the Hanoi meeting, where Kim reportedly sought to have some sanctions lifted in exchange for suspending operations at North Korea’s largest nuclear facility. Trump, who has demanded complete and verifiable denuclearization, refused.

“Testing ballistic missiles after returning home empty-handed demonstrates [Kim’s] power and sends a signal to the U.S. that North Korea is serious about its demands,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy for the Arms Control Association.

Minutes after North Korea’s latest missile test, the U.S. launched its own long-range missile test in California, but officials maintained the timing was purely coincidental. On Thursday, federal prosecutors announced a civil forfeiture complaint against a cargo vessel accused of violating sanctions against North Korea by transporting coal and heavy machinery for the regime.

“This sanctions-busting ship is now out of service,” said Assistant Attorney General John Demers in a statement. “North Korea, and the companies that help it evade U.S. and U.N. sanctions, should know that we will use all tools at our disposal — including a civil forfeiture action such as this one or criminal charges — to enforce the sanctions enacted by the U.S. and the global community.”

The seizure of the Wise Honest, a 17,061-ton, single-hull bulk carrier ship, was the first ever of a North Korean cargo vessel for violating sanctions. The ship was seized in Indonesia last April and transferred to U.S. custody in accordance with a July 2018 warrant.

“Our counterintelligence efforts are squarely focused on protecting the American people. This seizure should serve as a clear signal that we will not allow foreign adversaries to use our financial systems to fund weapons programs which will be used to threaten our nation,” said FBI New York Field Office Assistant Director William Sweeney.

Signaling another breakdown in communications with Pyongyang, the Pentagon also revealed this week it is halting efforts to recover remains of soldiers who went missing or died during the Korean War from North Korea until at least the next fiscal year.

“We have reached the point where we can no longer effectively plan, coordinate, and conduct field operations in the DPRK during this fiscal year, which ends on September 30, 2019,” the Department of Defense said in a statement to The Washington Post. “We are assessing possible next steps in resuming communications with the [North Koreans] to plan for potential joint recovery operations to be scheduled during Fiscal Year 2020.”

According to The Post, there had been no discussions about repatriation of remains since the Hanoi summit. Officials made clear they are open to resuming talks if North Korea is willing to engage.

“I don’t think they’re ready to negotiate,” President Trump said Thursday.

Stephen Biegun, the U.S. envoy on North Korea, arrived in Seoul Wednesday to discuss reviving nuclear negotiations and providing humanitarian aid with his South Korean counterpart. However, the differences between Trump and Kim that tanked the Hanoi meeting remain, and neither side has been eager to budge from their position.

“The U.S. needs to move away from its hardline, all-or-nothing approach, and North Korea has to recognize significant sanctions relief will not be put on the table absent meaningful progress on denuclearization,” Davenport said.

While North Korean missile tests in 2017 led President Trump to threaten “fire and fury” against Kim, the administration has so far downplayed the significance of the latest developments.

“Anything in this very interesting world is possible, but I believe that Kim Jong Un fully realizes the great economic potential of North Korea, & will do nothing to interfere or end it. He also knows that I am with him & does not want to break his promise to me. Deal will happen!” Trump tweeted Sunday.

Other officials stressed the missile tests posed no immediate danger to U.S. forces.

“They landed in the water east of North Korea and didn’t present a threat to the United States or to South Korea or Japan,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told ABC News of Saturday’s missile test.

Given the nature of the weapons involved, experts say this more measured response was proportionate.

“There is no need to panic or to engage in megaphone diplomacy. We need to consult and reassure our allies in the region and set a course for serious technical negotiations with the North Koreans,” Bell said.

However, Brewer fears the White House has erred in dismissing the tests as harmless rather than making clear that such provocations are outright unacceptable.

“In doing so, the Trump administration has kind of opened up the window to more North Korean testing of short-range systems or maybe even medium-range systems,” he said.

The need for relief from sanctions is quickly growing more urgent for Pyongyang. A weak harvest has left a starving population with even less food than normal and already-sparse rations are being cut further. South Korea may provide humanitarian aid—and the U.S. has said it will not intervene to prevent that—but sanctions on fuel and other resources have made it difficult for North Koreans to grow and produce their own food.

Since the failed Hanoi summit, Kim has tried to shift responsibility for reviving negotiations to the U.S., setting an end-of-year deadline for the Trump administration to come back with a viable plan. The North Koreans have also tried unsuccessfully to dictate who participates in diplomatic efforts, demanding Secretary Pompeo be left out of future talks.

Kim has recently turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in his effort to loosen international sanctions. He met with Putin for the first time last month and Xi is planning a trip to North Korea in the near future.

After a summit with Kim in Vladivostok on April 25, Putin seemed to back Pyongyang’s preferred approach of gradual disarmament matched by sanctions relief.

“If we take one step forward and two backward, then we would fail to achieve the desired result,” Putin said, according to The New York Times. “But it will eventually be possible to achieve this goal, if we move forward gradually and if we respect each other’s interests.”

Trump and Kim both appear to genuinely want a deal, but realistically, experts expect some trade-offs will be necessary if denuclearization of North Korea is ever going to happen.

“The Trump administration’s belief there should be no sanctions relief is good in theory but really hard in practice... We do have to think about ways to phase in sanctions relief over time,” Brewer said.

Kim conceivably could leverage President Trump’s desire for a foreign policy victory before he hits the campaign trail for re-election in 2020, but the ticking clock cuts both ways. If Kim overplays his hand and Trump walks away from negotiations again, it could prove even harder to make a deal later with either an emboldened post-election Trump or a Democrat who defeats him.

“They have to decide: is it better to make a deal with the U.S. knowing they have a limited time to do so?” Yun said.

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