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Some of the disruption could lead to arms control talks with China or a nuclear agreement with North Korea but it could also drive South Korea or Japan to acquire nuclear weapons.
U.S. Threat Report Prioritizes China
Trump and Putin talk Ukraine while strategic arms control remains off the agenda, U.S. allies weigh their nuclear options, the Ban Treaty states meet in New York, and Los Alamos opens environmental impact study for comments.
The moribund process offers the best tool for reviving the international arms control regime.
Congress should support H.Res. 100 and S.Res. 61, which calls for a freeze on U.S. and Russian deployed warheads beyond New START, condemns nuclear threats by all nations, and urges efforts to engage in nuclear arms control diplomacy bilaterally with Russia and bilaterally with China. (March 2025)
“We welcome President Trump’s interest in negotiating a deal to limit and reduce the massive nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.
The arsenal likely exceeds 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024, part of a diversified buildup that is projected to continue after 2030.
Decades after India and Pakistan joined China in conducting nuclear tests and declaring themselves states with nuclear weapons, the region remains risk prone and there is little chance of engagement on nuclear issues.
The country’s first launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in international waters since 1980 landed near French Polynesia.
China assumes the rotating leadership of the P5 process while states negotiate disarmament language for the Summit for the Future outcome document. A survey shows strong swing-state opposition to testing as the United States reviews nuclear requirements and renews a cooperation treaty with the United Kingdom.
The United States must take the threat of nuclear confrontation out of the Taiwan equation.
China said it rejected the U.S. offer for more nuclear arms control talks and tied the decision to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
The NPT preparatory committee meets in Geneva as states-parties discuss a path forward to the 2026 Review Conference. Kazakhstan announces a nuclear-weapons-free zones workshop. The United States continues with its ICBM modernization program.
U.S. presidential leadership may be the most important factor in whether the risk of nuclear arms racing, proliferation, and war will rise or fall in the years ahead.