Nuclear Disarmament Monitor
July 25, 2025
“A global security structure forever dependent on fear is ultimately a reckless gamble,” a group of Nobel laureates and nuclear weapons experts wrote July 16 in a new Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear War. The statement makes clear the need for a return to negotiations on a successor to the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).
Just a week before, a parallel civil society call to Halt and Reverse the Arms Race, said the same, urging U.S. leaders to “fulfill their disarmament obligations and engage immediately in good faith negotiations with Russia.”
The White House agrees. Speaking to reporters July 25, U.S. President Donald Trump said: “[New START is] not an agreement you want expiring. We’re starting to work on that.”
“It’s a problem for the world,” he added. “When you take off nuclear restrictions, that’s a big problem.”
Coming after previous comments that he would seek “denuclearization” agreements with Russia and China, it is clear that the president is in favor of negotiated arms control. But, Russian and U.S. diplomats remain fixated on whether and how to resolve the war in Ukraine. Trump spoke July 3 for the sixth time this year with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, but official readouts indicate strategic arms control was not discussed.
Despite Trump’s stated desire to extend limits on U.S. and Russian forces, no plan or policy to do so has yet emerged. Compounding the challenge, the Trump administration’s nominee for undersecretary of state for international security, Thomas DiNanno, has still not been confirmed by the Senate, more than two months after hearings before the Committee on Foreign Relations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s new plan to reorganize and down-size the department will further hamstring any future negotiating effort.
This lack of action has contributed to growing concern of an arms race in the shadow of strategic competition between the nuclear powers, prompting renewed public demands for concrete steps to reduce the danger of nuclear war. The Nobel Laureates’ declaration, co-signed by thirteen laureates and forty nuclear policy experts, is just one of several signs of increasing public anxiety.
The civil society call to Halt and Reverse the Arms Race was launched July 10 at a public event marking the 80th anniversary of the first nuclear detonations in New Mexico and in Japan, organized by the Arms Control Association and Win Without War. The call was endorsed and organized by a group of more than two dozen leaders of regional, national, and international disarmament organizations. Unlike the laureates’ declaration, the call is open for endorsement by civil society leaders and individuals.
“The threat of nuclear weapons use and an unconstrained, three-way nuclear arms race is greater now than at any point since the end of the Cold War,” the call says.
Inspired by the movement for a nuclear freeze in the early 1980s, the joint appeal “call[s] on U.S. leaders to fulfill their disarmament obligations and engage immediately in good faith negotiations with Russia and other nuclear-armed states to cap and reduce their deadly nuclear arsenals.”
Whether in the pages of The Atlantic or The Washington Post, the mainstream media is awakening to the growing risks of global nuclear competition. And with only 195 days until the expiration of New START, there is little time before the last limits on U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals will expire.
As the Arms Control Association has advised for months, given the fact that negotiating a new treaty will take time, it is vital that Trump and Putin reach an interim deal to continue to respect current limits on strategic nuclear weapons until a new arms control framework can be agreed.
—Xiaodon Liang, senior policy analyst; Shizuka Kuramitsu, research assistant; Libby Flatoff, operations and program assistant; Lipi Shetty, Scoville Peace Fellow; Lena Kroepke, intern.
State Department Plan Downgrades Arms Control and Nonproliferation
Roughly 1,350 employees were laid off from the U.S. Department of State on July 19, shortly after the Supreme Court lifted a temporary stay that had prevented Secretary of State Marco Rubio from implementing reorganization plans he first announced in April. The cuts affect both civil service employees and foreign service officers based in Washington, and primarily targeted offices deemed a low policy priority by the Trump administration.
The reorganization plan merges the bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation with the bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance under a single assistant secretary. The Trump administration’s incoming Undersecretary of International Security and Arms Control will now have an enlarged portfolio, including overseeing the bureaus of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, Counterterrorism, and Emerging Threats, which will likely reduce the time and attention he will be able to devote to pressing WMD challenges.
The State Department’s capacity to address urgent nuclear weapons matters will be further diminished due to the elimination of key roles and offices, including the entire Multilateral Nuclear Affairs team.
House Members Speak Out on Nuclear Weapons Issues
The U.S. House of Representatives held a special order hour on nuclear weapons on the afternoon of July 23. Four members of the House joined Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), who organized the opportunity, to give speeches on a range of topics associated with nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, and disarmament.
“On the 80th anniversaries, people of many generations will gather in Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” McGovern noted. “I regret I cannot be with them…but that is why I have organized this special order on the House floor today, so that members can share their message from the floor of the House, and to our colleagues and to the president and to the American people,” he said.
“This is a crucial moment in world history. We have a moral responsibility to speak out and to do more,” he added, emphasizing the need for more legislative action.
The four other members of the House who took the floor were Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), and Mark Takano (D-Calif.).
WHO to Update Reports on Health Impacts of Nuclear War
Member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) endorsed May 26 a resolution calling on the WHO to update its assessments on the effects of nuclear war on public health, the first such revision in more than 30 years.
The resolution, approved at the 78th meeting of the World Health Assembly, mandates WHO to update its reports Effects of Nuclear War on Health and Health Services (1983 and 1987) and Health and Environmental Effects of Nuclear Weapons (1993). It also requires the WHO to report on progress toward implementing the resolution to the eighty-second World Health Assembly in 2029.
The resolution was proposed by twelve countries: Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Fiji, Guatemala, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, New Zealand, Peru, Samoa, and Vanuatu. It was approved 84-14 votes, with 28 nations abstaining. Among those voting “no” were a number of nuclear-weapons states, including the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom, France, and the Russian Federation. Israel, India, Pakistan, and China were among those which abstained.
A 2023 joint editorial published in over 130 medical journals worldwide called for updated assessments of the effects of nuclear war by the UN with support from associated health and scientific agencies.
Secretary-General Announces Members of Scientific Panel on Effects of Nuclear War
On July 17, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres announced the appointment of an independent scientific panel of experts tasked with examining the physical effects and societal consequences of a nuclear war on a local, regional and planetary scale in the days, weeks, and decades following a nuclear war. The panel was established pursuant to General Assembly resolution 79/238, which was approved last fall. The panel is due to deliver its findings by 2027.
NAS Releases Study on Environmental Effects of Nuclear War
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released its independent study on the Potential Environmental Impacts of Nuclear War on June 25. The report considers four scenarios of nuclear war with varying numbers of warheads exchanged and reviews the non-fallout atmospheric effects of nuclear-weapons use. The study does not include quantitative estimates of modelled effects, and focuses instead on description of plausible causal mechanisms.
The report assesses five categories of effects: fire dynamics and emissions, plume rise along with gas and aerosol emissions, physical Earth system impacts, ecosystem impacts, and societal and economic impacts. Among key conclusions were the identification of limitations in existing modelling systems, especially in fire ignition and fuel mapping, and recommendations for future research initiatives.
The report was commissioned by Congress in the fiscal year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act and sponsored by the National Nuclear Security Administration.
China Reiterates Commitment to Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone
Throughout July several Chinese officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, have reiterated China’s willingness to sign the protocol to the treaty on the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone.
Malaysian state media agency Barnama reported July 2 that China and Russia are ready to sign the protocol to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone treaty and the United States is reviewing the protocol. When asked July 3 about the report, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning largely confirmed the reporting, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as China’s “comprehensive strategic partner and friendly neighbor.” She said, “China firmly supports establishing the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ). We have said more than once that China is ready to take the lead in signing the Protocol to the SEANWFZ Treaty. We will maintain communication with ASEAN countries on this matter.”
In response, Philippines Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Jr., in a July 4 interview, expressed skepticism toward the Chinese remarks, “saying Beijing must first show concrete steps toward disarmament if it wants to be taken seriously.”
On the sidelines of the ASEAN summit on July 10, Wang Yi attended the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting. In one of his proposals to advance China-ASEAN cooperation, Wang said that “China is willing to take the lead in signing the protocol to the treaty on the Southeast Asia nuclear weapon-free zone” according to Xinhua.
Of the five existing nuclear-weapon-free zones in the world–covering Africa, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Pacific–the 1995 Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty uniquely includes member states’ exclusive economic zones and continental shelves, some of which overlap with China’s disputed territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea. Concerns about the geographic scope of the treaty have stymied progress toward ratification of the protocol by the nuclear-weapon states.
French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed July 10 a new statement on nuclear policy and coordination following a three-day state visit by Macron to the United Kingdom. The text, referred to as the Northwood Declaration, states an intention to deepen coordination of future British and French nuclear responses to “extreme threats” to the European continent. Both countries will maintain ultimate control over their nuclear arsenals; however, the two sides note that their “nuclear forces are independent, but can be coordinated.” The declaration also establishes an oversight committee to facilitate alignment.
As the only two European nations in possession of a nuclear arsenal, the new cooperation agreement demonstrates a noteworthy development in the bolstering of Europe’s independent nuclear capabilities. Statements issued by other European leaders such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk underline a broader interest in a European nuclear umbrella as provided by France or the United Kingdom.
Survey Shows Support for No First Use Among U.S. Veterans
A survey conducted last month by the Human Security Lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that 62% of U.S. veterans and troops would support a restriction that the United States only use nuclear weapons “in retaliation for a nuclear strike against Americans.” Support for this strong version of a no-first-use policy increased from 58% a year ago.
44% of the responses also supported an “additional oversight authority besides” the president, rising from 33% last year. 42% of respondents also said they would refuse an order to execute a nuclear strike against a civilian target such as a city, while 44% said they would obey– a 5% drop from last year.
Republican Reconciliation Bill Extends RECA Coverage
A controversial budget reconciliation bill narrowly approved July 4 by the U.S. Congress includes legislation that extends and expands coverage under the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA) program through 2028. Republican Congressional leaders who had opposed RECA extension reluctantly agreed to include RECA expansion in the bill in order to win the vote of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who championed RECA expansion in order to address health impacts caused by Manhattan Project weapons production contamination in the St. Louis area.
Since its implementation in 1990, RECA has provided $2.6 billion of compensation to 41,000 claimants in certain states and counties affected by radiation exposure related to atmospheric U.S. nuclear weapons testing and uranium mining. The new expansion package widens the program’s geographical coverage, raises payments, creates new eligible groups, and includes claims connected to Manhattan Project-era nuclear weapons production.
A remaining shortcoming of the expansion package is that compensation for individuals who previously received smaller payments will not increase retroactively. Communities adversely affected by nuclear weapons production activities in Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington were not included in the scope of the program.
At an Arms Control Association and Win Without War event on July 10, Mary Dickson, an American downwinder and activist, emphasized that the bill was “a win we didn’t expect but it did not go far enough.”
U.S. Nuclear Gravity Bombs Return to UK Soil
Open-source researchers have identified flight activity strongly suggesting that the U.S. Air Force delivered July 18 a batch of U.S. B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs to a newly upgraded storage facility at the UK Royal Air Force base at Lakenheath, in southeast England, for the first time since at least 2005.
The return of U.S. nuclear gravity bombs has been anticipated since at least April 2022, when the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) released a report flagging future upgrades to a nuclear weapons storage site at Lakenheath in U.S. defense budget request documents. In February 2024, the BBC reported upgrades to the Lakenheath facility.
“The US Air Force used to store nuclear gravity bombs at Lakenheath, which in the 1990s was equipped with 33 underground storage vaults. By the early 2000s, there were a total of 110 B61 gravity bombs in the vaults for delivery by F-15E aircraft of the 48th Fighter Wing,” Hans Kristensen of FAS wrote in 2022.
This development follows the recent announcement by the UK that it will join NATO’s air-based nuclear mission by purchasing the U.S. F-35A nuclear-capable fighter jet, which will operate out of the Royal Air Force base at Marham. The UK and NATO do not disclose or confirm the specific locations of nuclear weapons.
Community Pressure Halts Proposed LANL Tritium Venting
The head of New Mexico’s Environment Department (NMED), Secretary James Kenney, announced June 9 the temporary halting of plans to vent radioactive tritium from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The decision was made in response to significant community pressure.
Kenney clarified in a June 9 letter to the National Nuclear Security Administration and its contractor Triad National Security that the following four conditions must be met before a final ruling is made: an independent technical review of alternatives, a public meeting with interested stakeholders, a tribal consultation, and a compliance audit. Kenney further emphasized that LANL’s past “disregard of state laws and rules governing these wastes for almost 20 years greatly exacerbated this situation and put New Mexicans, tribal communities, and our environment at risk.” He stated that a civil enforcement action will be commenced in response.
Several civil society organizations advocated against the tritium release and more than 2,500 individuals signed a petition urging the NMED to stop LANL’s plans. The decision by NMED is a victory for advocates for the protection of civilians from exposure to nuclear radiation.
- Aug. 6 and 9: 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A list of commemorative events (primarily in the United States) prepared by Physicians for Social Responsibility is available here.
- Aug. 29: International Day Against Nuclear Tests
- Sep. 22: Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna
- Sep. 23-30: 80th session of UN High-level Week, New York
- Sep. 26: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (Registration is open until August 22)
- Oct. 6-Nov.7: UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, New York
In Case You Missed It
“Chinese Perspectives on Strategic Stability Engagement with the United States,” Li Bin, Brookings Institution, July 21.
“Robert Alvarez, 76, Dies; Called Attention to Nuclear-Waste Safety,” Clay Risen, The New York Times, July 18.
“Reading between the lines of the new France-UK nuclear entente,” Léonie Allard, New Atlanticist, July 16.
“Catching it on our tongues’: How 12 girls became the first atomic bomb victims,” Eric S. Singer, Washington Post, July 15.
“Iran’s Nuclear Program After the Strikes: What’s Left and What’s Next?” Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association Issue Brief, July 9.
“The Risk of Nuclear War Is Greater Now Than in Decades: A new global coalition seizes the moment to campaign for a halt and reversal of the nuclear arms race,” David Cortright, The Nation, July 8.
“The Next Nuclear Age,” Federation of American Scientists and the Washington Post, July 3.
“Optimal Deterrence: How the United States Can Preserve Peace and Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race with China and Russia,” James M. Acton, Council on Foreign Relations, June 2025.
“The President’s Weapon,” Tom Nichols, The Atlantic, June 26.
“How to Survive the New Nuclear Age,” Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, Foreign Affairs, June 24.
“China downplayed nuclear-capable missile test: classified NZ govt papers,” Agence France-Presse, June 17.
“The Workers, the Waste, and the Warnings from Bomb Country,” Taylor Barnes, Inkstick Media, June 12.
“Questions to Ask About Proposals for US. Space-Based Missile Interceptors,” Xiaodon Liang and Lena Kroepke, Arms Control Now Blog, June 10.
“In Deciding to Launch a Nuclear Strike, Humans Are Shockingly Suggestible,” Sarah Scoles, Scientific American, June 5.
“Where Trump and Putin Could Make a Deal,” Samuel Charap and Kingston Reif, Project Syndicate, June 4.