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“For half a century, ACA has been providing the world … with advocacy, analysis, and awareness on some of the most critical topics of international peace and security, including on how to achieve our common, shared goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.”

– Izumi Nakamitsu
UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs
June 2, 2022
Deterrence and risk reduction are two sides of the same coin
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Arms Control NOW

Centrum Balticum publishes a discussion forum, Baltic Rim Economies (BRE), which deals with the development of the Baltic Sea region. In the BRE review, high level public and corporate decision makers, representatives of Academia, as well as several other experts contribute to the discussion. The following contribution from Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernández appeared in the February 2023 issue.

Russia’s unjustified war on Ukraine has unleashed much suffering, displaced millions, and wrecked any prospects of cooperative security for the foreseeable future.  Moscow’s revisionist actions have hastened shifts in the broader European security order, and inevitably, the threat perceptions that held it together. Because of this, NATO as an alliance and its member states face the challenge of designing a strategy and posture that can improve stability and enhance deterrence while lowering the temperature of the overall standoff. As a result, the Allies should invest in improved lines of communication with adversaries.

Russia’s war on Ukraine showed that Russia is willing to launch a full-scale attack on its neighbor despite the risks and costs this endeavor may pose. Moscow’s decision prompted its neighbors to rethink their own defense gaps, and the limits of NATO’s security assistance when it comes to non-NATO members. Perhaps the best example is Finland’s accession to NATO and Sweden’s NATO bid after years of non-aligned status, which will undoubtedly change the balance of forces in the Euro-Atlantic region. In addition, NATO members have asserted their shifting threat perceptions. “The Euro-Atlantic area is not at peace. [Russia] has violated the norms and principles that contributed to a stable and predictable security order,” NATO’s new strategic concept states. 

Read the remaider of Gabriela's article on the Centrum Balticum site.