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ElBaradei Warns of Nuclear Trafficking Threat
In an Oct. 27 statement to the UN General Assembly, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei warned that the potential that terrorists could acquire nuclear and radiological material “remains a grave threat.” He noted that incidents involving the theft or loss of such material “is disturbingly high.”
In sufficient quantities, radioactive material can be used as part of a radiological dispersal device, or “dirty bomb,” spreading radioactive material over a targeted area. Highly enriched uranium and plutonium pose an even greater risk as, with the necessary expertise, these can be used to form the explosive core of a nuclear weapon.
ElBaradei’s Oct. 27 statement echoed a similar warning he issued to the agency’s Board of Governors Sept. 22, when he indicated that 243 incidents of illicit trafficking and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear or radiological material had been reported to the agency between July 2007 and June 2008, some of which may have occurred prior to that time period. Twenty-one incidents involved the theft or loss of material which was not recovered.
Since 1993, the IAEA has maintained a database of reported incidents of unauthorized activity involving nuclear or radiological material, including illegal trade and unintentional breaches of nuclear security, as well as thwarted and unsuccessful acts of trafficking or other criminal activity. The agency issued the most recent report of the Illicit Trafficking Database (ITDB) Sept. 26, which records a total of 1,340 reported incidents from 1993 to 2007. This figure represents an increase of 260 from last year’s 1,080 total confirmed incidents. It is unclear if this large number indicates a growth in incidents in 2007 or is the product of delayed reporting and improved detection mechanisms by participating countries.
Currently, 100 states participate in the ITDB program.
Changing its practice from previous ITDB reports, the IAEA did not release the exact numbers of specific types of incidents this year. An IAEA representative indicated to Arms Control Today Oct. 20 that member states preferred that more specific annual numbers not be released. The agency did, however, provide graphs indicating an approximate number of specific types of reported incidents.
One of the most serious types of cases involves the unauthorized possession of nuclear or radiological material “and related criminal activity,” which the agency declares “could be a shortcut to nuclear proliferation and to nuclear or radiological terrorism.” The Sept. 26 report indicates that there were approximately 13 reported incidents in 2007, the lowest reported rate since 2001.
The report also demonstrated a significant shift in the number of incidents of theft or loss of nuclear or radioactive material between 2006 and 2007. Although states reported less than 20 such incidents in 2007, more than 100 were reported in 2006. (See ACT, Oct. 2007.) The agency explained in the Sept. 26 report that this decrease was due to a change in the way in which one state reported its incidents for 2006, rather than the actual number of cases. That state reverted to its original reporting practices in 2007. The IAEA also noted that some of the decline may be due to delayed reporting rather than an actual decrease in incident occurrence. The materials involved in 75 percent of theft and loss incidents since 2004 have never been recovered.
The number of incidents of uncategorized unauthorized activity, such as unauthorized disposal of materials or material recovery with no evidence of criminal behavior, has increased steadily since 1993. The 2007 rate is the highest yet, at more than 100 reported incidents. The IAEA states that these numbers “show weakness of regulatory systems” but not an indication of criminal activity or illicit trafficking.
Since its inception, the ITDB has recorded 18 incidents involving weapons-grade nuclear material. The last confirmed incidents occurred in 2005. The report noted that most incidents involved “very small quantities” of highly enriched uranium or plutonium.
The information submitted by member states is part of an ongoing analysis by the IAEA to substantiate incidents of unauthorized activity, assess threats, and identify patterns and weaknesses in detection abilities and practices. According to the September IAEA report, the information from the ITDB is shared with member states to “enhance nuclear security through preventing and combating unauthorized activities.”
While the IAEA also maintains programs to assist states in improving nuclear security, ElBaradei noted Sept. 22 that “funding for nuclear security remains a cause for concern,” adding that the agency depends entirely on extra-budgetary contributions for such work.