ElBaradei Unopposed for Third Term

The Bush administration’s efforts to block Mohamed ElBaradei from a third term as director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) appear to be falling short because of the U.S. failure to recruit a suitable alternative, according to Western and developing country diplomats.

ElBaradei was the only candidate to indicate his candidacy before a Dec. 31, 2004, deadline that the IAEA Board of Governors had set for consideration. That makes it likely, but not certain, that ElBaradei will be selected. Should he fail to win a vote of confidence from two-thirds of the IAEA board in a vote expected in June, the field would be opened to other candidates.

Diplomats say that splits in the Western camp have prevented would-be contenders from stepping forward as they could not be assured that they could get the backing of the required two-thirds of the 35-member IAEA board.

“It’s really a chicken or egg problem,” said one Western diplomat. “Nobody’s going to get support unless they come out, and nobody’s going to come out unless they have support.” ElBaradei’s term ends this fall, with a decision on his next term or the appointment of a successor supposed to be made during a meeting of all IAEA members in September, following a recommendation from the board.

The United States has said it wants ElBaradei replaced on the basis of a nonbinding recommendation adopted by some UN members in Geneva that no director-general of any UN body should be elected to serve for more than two terms. The Egyptian diplomat has headed the IAEA since 1997.

Some Western officials have been dissatisfied by ElBaradei’s failure to say that Iran’s many violations of its safeguards agreement with the IAEA should lead to a finding of noncompliance by the board. Such a finding would automatically trigger a referral to the UN Security Council, leaving open the possibility of sanctions or even military force.

The Washington Post reported in December that the Bush administration had intercepted dozens of ElBaradei’s phone calls with Iranian diplomats and was scrutinizing them for evidence they could use to force him out.

In a Feb. 4 interview with Arms Control Today, ElBaradei said the criticism was misplaced, noting that he had said that Iran had “cheated” and was in breach of its safeguards obligations.

“Our reports on Iran have been characterized, at least from our perspective, by being factual and objective, and that’s what we’ll continue to do. We have no ax to grind one way or another,” he said.

“But the question of what to do, in Iran or in any other case, whether you want to report to the UN Security Council or try to deal with it within the confines of the IAEA—that is clearly a political assessment, which has to be made by member states,” he added. “So, it’s not really something that I dictate, it’s [a matter for] member states based on our reporting, and our reporting laid out all the facts that we know about Iran.”

Before the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, ElBaradei insisted that Iraq had not reconstituted its nuclear weapons program. That conclusion was later borne out by post-war U.S. inspectors.

ElBaradei also found himself caught in a political crossfire when an Iraqi letter to the IAEA became public in the final days of last year’s U.S. presidential election campaign. That letter indicated that more than 340 tons of dual-use high explosives that were subject to agency monitoring prior to the invasion had disappeared. Bush’s opponent, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), repeatedly cited the letter as an example of the administration’s poor planning for the aftermath of the invasion.

Still, ElBaradei appears to have considerable support among some EU countries, particularly France and Germany, and developing countries. ElBaradei and EU countries have both pushed strongly for a negotiated end to Iran’s nuclear program. Indeed, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have been conducting such negotiations with Tehran.

Developing countries are pleased to have one of their own hold the IAEA post for the first time in the agency’s history.

ElBaradei’s supporters also point out that both of his immediate predecessors, Swedish diplomats Sigvard Eklund (1961-1981) and Hans Blix (1981-1997), served at least four four-year terms.

Despite the resistance, the United States has attempted to recruit a number of alternative candidates but so far has struck out. Some, such as Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, publicly took themselves out of the running. Two potential Japanese diplomats, Yakio Takasu, that country’s representative in Vienna, and Nobuyasu Abe, UN undersecretary-general for disarmament, also appear to have rejected Western entreaties.

Other candidacies, such as those posed by diplomats from Brazil and South Korea, were seen as damaged by agency questions about their country’s nuclear programs.

Although there is no obvious alternative, ElBaradei could be blocked if the United States is able to recruit 11 or more other board members to vote against his reappointment. One point of leverage would be the U.S. financial assistance to the agency, which pays for about one-fourth of its budget.

The Board of Governors prefers to pick a candidate by consensus. By IAEA tradition, a candidate who receives less than two-thirds stands aside and lets other candidates come forward.

ElBaradei appears sanguine about his prospects.

“All I know is that the overwhelming majority of members-states have come to me and asked me to continue to serve,” he told Arms Control Today. “I’d be happy to serve if people want me to; if not, again, I’ll be equally happy to do other stuff.”

Some diplomats said that the questions surrounding ElBaradei’s reappointment have also held up the appointment of the second-ranking IAEA official and head of its inspections branch, the deputy director-general for safeguards. The incumbent, Pierre Goldschmidt of Switzerland, has repeatedly extended his tenure as ElBaradei has held off naming his successor. A half-dozen candidates are reportedly vying for the post.

Western diplomats said they include Kenneth Wagstaff, currently international affairs head at the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission; John Carlson, director-general of the Australian Safeguards & Nonproliferation Office; and Jacques Baute, a French national who headed the agency’s investigation of Iraq’s nuclear program.