Hoping to advance long-stalled efforts to create a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will host a discussion in January with Israel and its other neighbors about how such zones have functioned in other regions.
“With the participation of Arab States, Israel, and other countries in the region, the forum will be an occasion to open talks on the necessary conditions for the creation of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East,” IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei announced Aug. 15.
Israel’s attendance at the forum was the sole concession that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon granted to ElBaradei when the IAEA head visited Israel July 6-8. The concession fell short of ElBaradei’s goal of initiating “strategic peace talks” or more substantial moves toward a nuclear-weapon-free zone.
ElBaradei unsuccessfully urged Israel to pursue peace within the context of such a zone in the Middle East, arguing that nuclear weapons impair regional security and hinder the peace process. Sharon insisted that such negotiations should only come after a comprehensive Middle East peace. The United States has long supported efforts to create a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East, although it has put much more emphasis on direct peace talks between Israel and its immediate neighbors.
Nor did ElBaradei convince Israel to alter its four-decade-old policy of “strategic ambiguity,” whereby Israeli officials neither admit nor deny the possession of nuclear weapons. “Our policy of ambiguity on nuclear arms has proved its worth, and it will continue,” Sharon declared.
Independent experts estimate the country has 100-200 nuclear warheads. Israel is one of three nonsignatories to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and is not required to open up its nuclear program to IAEA inspectors. Israel has, however, voluntarily agreed to submit one of its civilian nuclear facilities (at Soreq) to agency monitoring.
Earlier this year, ElBaradei argued in a Financial Times op-ed that Israel’s unwillingness “to discuss its purportedly sizeable nuclear arsenal” or sign the NPT has “served as an incentive for countries to arm themselves with equal or similar weapons capacity.” He asserted that the current situation is unsustainable and will ultimately lead to “catastrophe.”
Israel’s Arab neighbors have accused Western countries of a double standard for pressuring Iran to reign in a possible nuclear weapons program without exerting similar pressures on Israel.
For their part, Israeli officials continued to express concern over recent events surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. In 2003, Iran admitted to secret nuclear activities in contradiction to its nuclear safeguards obligations under the NPT and has been criticized in recent months for its slow-paced cooperation with the IAEA. Both countries have squared off recently, with Iran testing its Shahab-3 ballistic missile and Israel testing its Arrow-2 theater missile defense system.