A long-stalled U.S.-Russian project to share information on missile launches worldwide might never advance if the United States bases strategic anti-missile systems in Europe.
Two Russian officials, who asked not to be identified, told Arms Control Today in April interviews that the fate of the proposed Joint Data Exchange Center was currently tied to the U.S. initiative to station 10 missile interceptors in Poland. (See ACT, March 2007. ) They said Moscow remained interested in the center but warned that position would change if Washington fielded the interceptors, which are intended to destroy missile warheads in space.
U.S. officials reacted with surprise when informed of the Russian statements. They said the U.S. government still supported the joint center, which is supposed to be established in a renovated kindergarten in Moscow.
The center’s intended purpose is to allow the United States and Russia to share missile tracking data in real time to diminish the chance of a false missile attack alarm and to build mutual trust. General James Cartwright, who oversees deployed nuclear forces and missile defenses as the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, described the center in a May 2006 Arms Control Today interview as “important for transparency.” (See ACT, June 2006. )
But the Russian officials indicated Moscow would be opposed to the possibility of revealing sensitive and technical information about its early-warning systems to the United States if it was deploying strategic anti-missile interceptors in Poland.
As of mid-April, the United States had installed 15 similar interceptors in Alaska and two in California. The Pentagon last September conducted its first successful intercept test of a target using an interceptor model that was the same as those deployed. (See ACT, October 2006. )
Initially agreed to in principle in 1998, the U.S.-Russian center was delayed by broader disputes over whether U.S. entities working in Russia should pay Russian taxes and be liable for damages. Such issues were resolved in a settlement last fall between Moscow and Washington for a more contentious project, raising hope that the center would soon benefit from a similar solution. (See ACT, October 2006. )
One U.S. official told Arms Control Today April 20 that the United States hopes last fall’s agreement will serve as a precedent for the Moscow-based center. The official further said Washington was only aware of “relatively minor” and “resolvable” issues concerning the center.
Russia has made no secret of its opposition to U.S. missile defense deployments in Europe. President Vladimir Putin and other senior political and military officials have railed against the proposal, threatening a range of responses, including militarily targeting the proposed base and withdrawing from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the 1990 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. The INF prohibits Moscow and Washington from possessing ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges between 500 to 5,500 kilometers.
Russian officials dismiss U.S. assurances that the interceptors are to protect against a growing missile threat from Iran and are not geared toward Russia. The Kremlin asserts Iran poses no threat and implies the initial minimal U.S. deployment could be enhanced and expanded to potentially undermine Russia’s missile force.
In a recent arms treaty information exchange with the United States, Moscow claimed to have 530 deployed land-based ICBMs and 272 deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles. All told, these missiles are recognized as carrying approximately 3,500 nuclear warheads.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wrote in an April 11 Financial Times article that U.S. missile defense “capabilities may well grow significantly.” He also asserted their deployment in Europe “would fundamentally alter the continent’s geo-strategic landscape.”
The Bush administration is trying to placate Russia by providing it with a “serious offer for cooperation on missile defense,” Department of State spokesperson Sean McCormack said April 19. Moscow, however, has shown little interest publicly in the proposal.