Those waiting to see if the Pentagon’s long-range, ground-based ballistic missile defense system can once again intercept a mock warhead in flight will have to wait until next year. After three straight flight-test failures, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced in July that it would conduct two system interceptor flight tests this year without targets. Meanwhile, additional missile interceptors and a new ship-based radar will be deployed to bolster the fledgling defense.
The new schedule follows internal and independent reviews of the testing program. In consecutive experiments in December 2004 and February 2005, the system’s missile interceptor did not leave its silo. (See ACT, March 2005.) Prior to these aborted tests, the system’s interceptor also failed to work properly in a December 2002 intercept try. No intercept attempts occurred for two years between the separate December setbacks.
In line with the reviews’ recommendations, MDA spokesperson Rick Lehner told Arms Control Today Aug. 5 that the agency will improve its quality review and management processes, institute wholesale checks and balances, and pay extra attention to equipment to minimize technical risks and avoid repeating past test mishaps.
The latest test failures leave the current missile interceptor unproven. The interceptor’s two main components—a high-speed booster and an exoatmospheric kill vehicle (EKV)—have yet to fly together successfully. The booster is designed to carry the EKV into space where the two will separate. Using onboard sensors and radar-tracking updates, the EKV is then supposed to collide with its target.
MDA has deployed eight of the interceptors to Alaska and California to meet President George W. Bush’s 2002 order to field the initial elements of a layered missile defense system in 2004. Military commands charged with operating the system have been putting it through an extensive testing regime, known as a “shakedown,” since October 2004 but have yet officially to declare it operational.
Still, top Pentagon officials have repeatedly voiced confidence in the system. MDA Director, Lieutenant General Henry Obering, told reporters in July that the system has a “better-than-zero chance” of stopping an incoming missile warhead. Lehner explained that Obering’s statement reflected that “we [previously] had nothing, i.e., zero chance, and now we have the means to defend ourselves.”
MDA is seeking to improve the system’s odds. Before the year ends, 10 additional interceptors are to be added at the Fort Greely, Alaska, missile interceptor base. At the same time, MDA hopes to have its new Sea-Based X-Band Radar deployed near Alaska.
The radar is mounted atop a self-powered platform akin to an offshore oil rig, with the whole system longer than a football field and measuring 85 meters from top to bottom. It is intended to provide better tracking information on incoming missile warheads, as well as help distinguish them from surrounding debris or decoys. The Pentagon conducted preliminary sea trials on the system in July but has yet to involve it in a missile defense flight test. Lehner said the first such opportunity could come this fall.
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