 |
Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation at a Glance
September 2002
Press Contacts: Daryl
Kimball, Executive Director (202) 463-8270 x107; Kerry
Boyd , Research Analyst, (202) 463-8270 x109
The fall 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States and the discovery
that the al Qaeda terrorist network has pursued the development
and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction have recently focused
attention on chemical and biological weapons proliferation. At least
13 countries are currently pursuing biological weapons and at least
16 states have chemical weapons programs, according to Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
Drawing on publicly available U.S. intelligence assessments (except
where noted), the following chart details countries possessing or
developing chemical or biological weapons and, where possible, their
stockpiles and potential delivery systems. Most of the states listed
below have ballistic missile capabilities. However, ballistic missiles
are only included as a potential chemical or biological weapons
delivery system if U.S. intelligence reports have explicitly indicated
that they could be used in such a capacity.
The chart also details whether each state has signed, ratified,
or acceded to relevant international treaties: the 1972 Biological
Weapons Convention (BWC), which bans offensive biological weapons
development and possession; the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention
(CWC), which outlaws chemical weapons development, possession, and
use; and the 1925 Geneva Protocol, which forbids the use of chemical
and biological weapons in war.
|
COUNTRY
|
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
CAPABILITIES
|
CHEMICAL WEAPONS
CAPABILITIES
|
|
| China |
Possibly maintains some elements of the offensive biological
weapons program it had before joining the BWC. Existing infrastructure
would allow it to develop, produce, and weaponize agents.
Potential delivery systems include cruise missiles, fighters,
bombers, helicopters, artillery, rockets, mortars, and sprayers.
|
Has an advanced chemical weapons program, including a variety
of agents. Researching more advanced agents.
Delivery systems include artillery, rockets, mortars, landmines,
aerial bombs, sprayers, and short- and medium-range ballistic
missiles.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 8/24/29.
BWC: Acceded
11/15/84.
CWC: Signed
1/13/93, ratified
4/25/97.
|
| Cuba |
Has at least a limited biological weapons research and development
effort. |
None. |
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 6/24/66.
BWC: Signed
4/12/72, ratified
4/21/76.
CWC: Signed 1/13/93,
ratified 4/29/97.
|
| Egypt |
Developed biological weapons agents by 1972, and there is
no evidence suggesting it eliminated this capability. |
Probably maintains a chemical weapons stockpile.2 |
Geneva Protocol:
Signed 6/17/25, ratified 12/6/28.
BWC: Signed 4/10/72.
CWC: Has not signed.
|
| India |
Has a biodefense research program.3 Existing
infrastructure suitable for researching and developing pathogens.
Potential delivery systems include short-range, anti-ship
cruise missiles; short-range, air-launched tactical missiles;
fighter aircraft; artillery; and rockets.
|
Declared in June 1997 that it possessed a chemical weapons
stockpile. Has begun to destroy its chemical weapons stockpile
under the CWC. Its industry will retain the ability to produce
agent precursors—chemicals that can be used in chemical
weapons production.
Same potential delivery systems as for biological weapons.
|
Geneva Protocol
Signed 6/17/25,
ratified 4/ 9/30.
BWC: Signed 1/15/73,
ratified 7/15/74.
CWC: Signed
1/14/93, ratified
9/3/96.
|
| Iran |
Has probably produced and weaponized biological agents. Production
and weaponization capability likely limited.
Potential delivery vehicles include short-range cruise missiles;
short-range, air-launched tactical missiles; fighter aircraft;
artillery shells; and rockets.
|
Has a stockpile of chemical weapons. Previously known to have
produced and stockpiled blister, blood, and choking agents and
probably nerve agents. Seeking aid from Chinese and Russian
entities to develop a more advanced, self-sufficient infrastructure.
Delivery vehicles include artillery shells, mortars, rockets,
and aerial bombs.
Used chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 11/5/29.
BWC: Signed
4/10/72, ratified
8/22/73.
CWC: Signed
1/13/93, ratified
11/3/97.
|
| Iraq |
Possesses “an active and capable” biological weapons
program, according to CIA Director George Tenet.
Declared in 1995 that it had produced approximately 30,000
liters of bulk biological agents or filled munitions, including
anthrax, botulinum toxins, and aflatoxins. Also admitted it
had filled missile warheads and aerial bombs with agent and
had deployed biological munitions during the Persian Gulf
War.
The United Nations believes Iraq had produced three to four
times more agent or munitions than it declared. Iraq is also
thought to have conducted research on other agents and toxins.
Questions remain about the scope of Iraq’s program and
what parts of the program Iraq has destroyed or currently
retains. The United States strongly suspects Iraq has reconstituted
its program since UN inspectors left Iraq in 1998 and is concerned
that Baghdad is producing agents. Could be improving its agent
research and development capabilities.
Means of delivery may include short-range, anti-ship cruise
missiles; short-range ballistic missiles; short-range, air-launched
tactical missiles; fighter aircraft; helicopters; artillery;
rockets; and unmanned aerial vehicles.
|
Had extensive program before the Persian Gulf War under which
it produced and stockpiled mustard, tabun, sarin, and VX.
Delivered chemical agents against Iranian forces during the
Iran-Iraq War using aerial bombs, artillery, rocket launchers,
tactical rockets, and helicopter-mounted sprayers. Also used
chemical weapons against its own Kurdish population in 1988.
Program was largely dismantled by United Nations weapons
inspectors in the 1990s, but Iraq retains some chemical weapons
and has begun reconstituting its chemical infrastructure since
inspectors left the country in 1998. Could resume agent production
within a few weeks or months but would need foreign assistance
to completely restore its production capabilities to pre-Persian
Gulf War levels.
Same potential delivery systems as for biological weapons.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 9/8/31.
BWC: Signed 5/11/72, ratified 6/19/91.
CWC: Has not signed.
|
| Israel |
Possibly has a biological weapons research effort.4 |
Probably has a chemical weapons program. |
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 2/20/69.
BWC: Has not signed.
CWC: Signed
1/13/93.
|
| Libya |
Has a research and development program and may be able to
produce small amounts of agent. Likely in need of foreign assistance
to advance program further.
Potential delivery vehicles include short-range, anti-ship cruise
missiles; air-launched tactical missiles; fighter aircraft;
bombers; artillery; helicopters; and rockets. |
Produced mustard and nerve agent before 1990. Still has some
elements of its chemical weapons program and is working to re-establish
its chemical weapons capabilities, which had been limited by
UN sanctions from 1992 to 1999. Is pursuing an indigenous production
capability but is highly dependant on foreign suppliers.
Attempted to use chemical weapons against Chadian troops
in 1987. Same potential delivery systems as for biological
weapons.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 12/29/71.
BWC: Acceded
1/19/82.
CWC: Has not signed.
|
| North Korea |
Has developed and produced weaponized biological agents. May
have biological weapons available for use.
Potential means of delivery include short-range, anti-ship
cruise missiles; bombers; rockets; mortars; sprayers; artillery;
helicopters; and fighters.
|
Believed to possess sizable stockpile of chemical weapons,
including nerve, blister, choking, and blood agents.
Delivery vehicles include ballistic missiles, artillery,
and aircraft.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 1/4/89.
BWC: Acceded
3/13/87.
CWC: Has not signed.
|
| Pakistan |
Has ability to support limited biological weapons research
and development effort.
Potential delivery vehicles include short-range, anti-ship
cruise missiles; short-range, air-launched tactical missiles;
fighter aircraft; artillery; and rockets.
|
Has imported chemicals that it could use to make chemical
weapons agent.
Delivery vehicles could include missiles, artillery, and
aerial bombs.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Signed 4/15/60.
BWC: Signed
4/10/72, ratified
9/25/74.
CWC: Signed
1/13/93, ratified
10/28/97.
|
| Russia |
Despite having ratified the BWC in 1975, the Soviet Union
maintained a large biological weapons effort. Russia publicly
acknowledged this program in 1992 and said it had been halted.
Agents weaponized included tularemia, typhus, Q fever, smallpox,
plague, anthrax, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, glanders,
brucellosis, and Marburg. Researched numerous other agents
and toxins that can attack humans, plants, and livestock.5
Currently has a defensive research program. Some elements
of the Soviet program may remain intact and could support
agent and delivery vehicle production. The United States has
received unconfirmed reports of continued offensive activities.
Washington has serious concerns about the status of the weapons
program inherited from the Soviet Union and remaining weapons
capabilities. In April 2002, the Bush administration notified
Moscow that it could not certify that Russia was complying
with the BWC.
Potential delivery vehicles include fighter aircraft, artillery,
rockets, helicopters, short-range ballistic missiles, and
cruise missiles. The former Soviet program planned to deliver
certain agents, such as smallpox, anthrax, and plague, by
ICBM.
|
Possesses the world’s largest chemical weapons stockpile:
40,000 metric tons of chemical agent, including VX, sarin, soman,
mustard, lewisite, mustard-lewisite mixtures, and phosgene.6
The United States believes that Russia has not declared some
of its chemical agents and weapons and notified Moscow in
April 2002 that it could not certify that Russia was complying
with the CWC.
Has started destroying its chemical weapons under the CWC
but is not expected to complete destruction until at least
2012.
Reports indicate that Moscow has worked on a new generation
of chemical agents called “novichoks,” which are
allegedly designed to circumvent the CWC and evade Western
methods to detect and protect against chemical weapons.
Potential delivery vehicles include artillery, bombs, spray
tanks, and short-range ballistic missiles.
|
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 4/5/28.
BWC: Signed
4/10/72, ratified
3/26/75.
CWC: Signed
1/13/93, ratified
11/5/97.
|
| South Korea |
None. |
Possesses a chemical weapons stockpile and is destroying it
under the CWC. |
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 1/4/89.
BWC: Signed
4/10/72, ratified
6/25/87.
CWC: Signed
1/14/93, ratified
4/28/97.
|
| Sudan |
May be interested in developing a biological weapons program.
|
Is developing the ability to produce chemical weapons, possibly
including VX. Has received Iraqi assistance. |
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 12/17/80.
BWC: Has not signed.
CWC: Acceded
5/24/99.
|
| Syria |
Has a biological weapons program in the research and development
stage and may be capable of producing a small amount of agent.
No major weaponziation effort is likely underway. Cannot manufacture
significant numbers of weapons without major foreign assistance.
Potential delivery vehicles include fighter aircraft; helicopters;
artillery; short-range, anti-ship cruise missiles; short-range,
air-launched tactical missiles; and rockets.
|
Possesses sarin, which it can deliver by aircraft or ballistic
missile, and is working to develop VX. Key elements of its program
rely on foreign sources. |
Geneva Protocol:
Acceded 12/17/68.
BWC: Signed
4/14/72.
CWC: Has not signed.
|
| Taiwan |
Has upgraded its biotechnology capabilities, but it is unclear
whether it is conducting illicit activities. |
May have some chemical weapons.7 |
Geneva Protocol: Has not acceded.
Has pledged to
adhere to the BWC and CWC.
|
| United States |
Unilaterally gave up its biological weapons program in 1969.
Currently conducting research as part of its biodefense program
that some say may violate the BWC. |
Possesses about 31,000 tons of chemical weapons agent. Is
currently destroying its stockpiles of mustard, sarin, VX, and
blister agent under the CWC. |
Geneva Protocol:
Signed 6/17/25,
ratified 4/10/75.
BWC: Signed
4/10/72, ratified
3/26/75.
CWC: Signed
1/13/93, ratified
4/25/97.
|
| Federal Republic of Yugoslavia |
None. |
Possesses weaponized CS; suspected of having unweaponized
mustard and sarin and, possibly, weaponized BZ.8
|
Geneva Protocol:
Signed 6/17/25,
ratified 4/12/29.
BWC: Signed
4/10/72, ratified
10/25/73.
CWC: Acceded
4/20/00.
|
Sources: Defense Department, State Department, Central Intelligence
Agency, Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, and the U.S. Army.
—Assisted by Andy Diamond and Ryan Scoville
NOTES
1. Based on data from the United Nations
and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
2. Monterey Institute of International Studies,
“Chemical and Biological Weapons: Possession and Programs Past
and Present,” http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/possess.htm.
3. Although the Biological Weapons Convention
prohibits offensive biological weapons, it permits biodefense activities.
4. Monterey Institute of International Studies,
“Chemical and Biological Weapons: Possession and Programs Past
and Present,” http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/possess.htm.
5. Ken Alibek, testimony before the Joint
Economic Committee, May 20, 1998; Ken Alibek, Biohazard, (New York:
Random House, 1999). Before defecting in 1992, Ken Alibek was first
deputy director of the Biopreparat, the civilian arm of the Soviet
Union’s biological weapons program.
6. Russian government Resolution No. 510,
July 5, 2001.
7. Monterey Institute of International Studies,
“Chemical and Biological Weapons: Possession and Programs Past
and Present,” http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/possess.htm.
8. According to Pentagon officials cited
in Judith Miller, “U.S. Officials Suspect Deadly Chemical Weapons
in Yugoslav Army Arsenal,” The New York Times, April 16, 1999,
p. A11.
|
