NEWS BRIEFS

Status of ERW Instrument Remains Uncertain

Missile Defense Funding Eases Through Congress

Anniston Begins Burning Chemical Weapons

Three Asian Countries to Get U.S. Missiles

Small Arms Meeting Addresses Progress, Pitfalls

Russia Clinches Jet Sale to Malaysia

U.S. Disposes of Weapons-Usable Fissile Material

Russian Sub Patrols Sink to Zero in 2002

Russia Acquires Soviet-Era Missile from Ukraine

Countries Meet to Present Progress in Ballistic Missile Reduction

Status of ERW Instrument Remains Uncertain

Diplomats negotiating a new agreement on cleaning up abandoned and unexploded munitions will not likely decide on whether it should be legally binding until the last days of the talks.

The negotiations are taking place within the framework of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), which regulates or bans the use of weapons judged to be indiscriminate or “excessively injurious.” Comprising 90 states-parties, the CCW has four legally binding protocols addressing incendiary weapons; blinding lasers; nondetectable-fragment weapons; and mines, booby traps, and other devices.

In the current negotiations, the United States stands virtually alone in urging for a political outcome that is not legally binding. Although some countries have suggested they do not have a strong preference, they are seen as simply not wanting to disagree with Washington publicly at this time, according to Western diplomats.

Speaking at the latest round of talks June 16-27 in Geneva, Edward Cummings, head of the U.S. negotiating team, repeated a March statement that Washington has a “comprehensive objection to all language that implies a legal character to the instrument.” Cummings was commenting on a Dutch draft of the instrument with terms, such as “high contracting parties” and the verb “shall,” that the United States had previously singled out as unacceptable. (See ACT, April 2003.)

Other outstanding issues pertain to who should be responsible for cleaning up explosive remnants of war (ERW)—the term used to describe munitions on the ground that remain potentially lethal after the fighting stops—and what should be done about existing ERW that has been dormant for years and possibly decades, such as unexploded World War II bombs in the Egyptian desert.

The Netherlands plans to circulate a revised ERW draft in September or October for review by other governments before negotiators meet November 17-24. The understanding, according to one diplomat, is that the text of the instrument will be largely completed and then a decision will be made on whether it should be legally binding.

Missile Defense Funding Eases Through Congress

In defense appropriation bills passed separately by the Senate and House of Representatives in July, lawmakers essentially matched the Bush administration’s earlier $9.1 billion missile defense budget request for fiscal year 2004.

The Republican-controlled Congress gave the Pentagon more than it requested for programs that might yield specific systems in the near term but shaved and shifted funding away from futuristic concepts or programs that legislators said were ill-defined.

Both houses of Congress added money to support the development and deployment of the strategic ground-based midcourse system, the initial elements of which the Pentagon plans to field next year. The Senate added $231 million, while the House approved about $16 million in extra funding.

The largest boost in funding by the House was $90 million for buying more Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors to counter short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. The Senate did not copy the House’s action. Instead, senators approved an increase of the same amount for the U.S.-Israeli Arrow system, which has a similar mission as the PAC-3 system.

The two bodies further disagreed over who should be in charge of future research and development of the PAC-3 system, as well as a joint project with Germany and Italy based on the PAC-3 interceptor. The Senate assigned the responsibility to the Missile Defense Agency, while the House vested the Army with the job.

Legislators agreed upon significant cuts to the Pentagon’s $301 million request to develop, in part, a common interceptor to be launched from a variety of platforms to destroy ballistic missiles minutes after they are fired. The House basically halved the request for this new boost-phase interceptor, and the Senate reduced it by more than two-thirds.

Both bodies also reduced funding for researching general missile defense hardware and software. The Senate exacted nearly $87 million in cuts and the House $63 million. A House report justifying the reductions stated that “it is not clear what activities, levels of effort, or deliverables warrant the level of funding proposed.”

Selected members of the Senate and the House Appropriations Committees will work out the differences between their two bills this fall in a conference committee.

Anniston Begins Burning Chemical Weapons

Despite vocal opposition from some members of an Alabama community, the Anniston Army Depot began burning rockets that had been filled with sarin nerve agent August 9 and started incinerating the sarin itself August 31. The action was a first step in a seven-year plan to incinerate 2,254 tons of sarin, VX, and mustard agent stored at the site.

As of early August 28, the Army had drained and destroyed 695 M-55 rockets. On August 31, the Army began burning the sarin that was drained.

The Anniston chemical weapons disposal facility was completed in 2001 and is designed to incinerate the chemical agents and related weaponry. Some members in the local community oppose incineration and want the Army to use different disposal technologies. With the facility already completed, however, the Army has decided to proceed with incineration, arguing that it would be more dangerous to continue storing the chemical agents. An initial start date of August 6 was delayed when opponents asked a court for a restraining order against the Anniston disposal facility. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia denied the request August 8, and the Army began destruction operations the next day.

In a compromise with local opponents who have expressed concern over safety issues, however, the Army does not plan to begin full-scale destruction until early October, when a project to “over-pressurize” local schools, hospitals, and some other community facilities is slated for completion. For example, some schools close to the depot are undergoing renovations to install a system that could pump filtered air into a sealed room in case of a chemical release. Under the agreement with the community, until the over-pressurization project is complete, the Army will only operate the liquid incinerator on weekends or after 6:00 p.m. and before 6:00 a.m.

The United States is destroying its entire chemical weapons arsenal as part of its obligations under the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). The CWC requires member states that possess chemical weapons to destroy their stockpiles by April 2007, although it allows for a possible extension until April 2012. Given the Anniston depot’s seven-year estimate and the fact that many other sites have not yet started operations, many analysts have said the United States will miss the 2007 deadline. The United States has so far destroyed about 26 percent of its chemical weapons stockpile.

Three Asian Countries to Get U.S. Missiles

The U.S. government has approved the delivery of advanced air combat missiles to Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore after agreeing to sell the missiles to the three countries a few years ago. When the missiles will actually be transferred is confidential.

The Clinton administration announced plans to sell AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) to Taiwan and Singapore in September 2000. Thailand reportedly made a similar deal, but no public record of it exists because the value of the possible sale did not cross the $14 million threshold required for the Pentagon publicly to inform Congress of the proposed transaction.

In all three cases, the United States conditioned the delivery of the AMRAAMs, which independently home in on a target beyond the distance that a pilot can see, on neighboring countries in Asia acquiring a comparable missile. U.S. policy holds that the United States will not be the first to introduce advanced beyond-visual-range missiles into a region.

In its annual report on Chinese military power released July 28, the Pentagon reported that China now possesses the Russian-made AA-12 Adder missile, which is comparable to the AMRAAM. The report marked the first public acknowledgement of a finding the United States made last year. The determination set in motion this past spring the delivery of the AMRAAMs to Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore.

Thailand and Singapore are not considered to be within the same region where China is thought to have deployed its AA-12 missiles. But the Bush administration told Congress earlier this year that Beijing’s ability to relocate the missiles and Russian offers to sell Adders to Malaysia create an imminent threat justifying AMRAAM deliveries to Thailand and Singapore.

Taiwan could receive up to 200 AMRAAMs and Singapore as many as 100. Thailand is believed to have purchased less than 10 missiles. Japan and South Korea, which are classified as being in a different region than the three above countries, have previously purchased and received AMRAAMs.

Small Arms Meeting Addresses Progress, Pitfalls

Much work remains to be done in the effort to curb illicit trade in small arms and light weapons, according to representatives of governments and nongovernmental organizations who met in New York City July 7-11. The meeting was organized to discuss the progress made in the two years since the signing of a Program of Action, which identifies national, regional, and global measures needed to slow the illegal small arms trade.

The experts said that some of the outstanding issues that still need to be tackled include stockpile destruction and management, export and import controls, research, institution building, and human security issues. Receiving particular attention was the notion of marking and tracing small arms and light weapons so they can be better tracked from buyer to buyer. A group of governmental experts recommended the creation of an international instrument for marking and tracing.

The meeting provided an opportunity for states to report on their progress in enacting national legislation and coordinating regional and international action to stop small-arm and light- weapon trade. Both states and nongovernmental groups identified national legislation on arms brokering and end-use monitoring as major priorities. But neither issue was discussed in depth, according to a diplomat involved in the proceedings.

Some delegates attending the conference pointed out the difficulty in implementing the 2001 Program of Action in countries with internal conflicts or little infrastructure to create and enforce laws. Chairperson Kuniko Inoguchi of Japan said significant progress has been made worldwide on national implementation of measures to stop illicit arms trading, with more than 90 countries reporting that they have domestic laws to govern illicit manufacture, possession, or trade. Inoguchi also pointed out the important progress on the issue of destroying existing stockpiles, noting that “the destruction of almost half of an estimated total of over four million weapons collected and disposed of during the last decade had taken place over the past two years.”

The next biennial meeting is set to take place in 2005; representatives are expected to discuss a plan on how to create effective legislation that will address the wide variety of obstacles to curbing the illicit small-arms and light-weapons trade.

Russia Clinches Jet Sale to Malaysia

Russia will deliver 18 advanced combat aircraft to Malaysia in a deal concluded between the two countries during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 5 visit to the Southeast Asian country.

The estimated $900 million deal commits Russia to supplying 18 Su-30MKM fighter jets to Malaysia within the next few years. Malaysia will offset some of the cost of the long-range strike aircraft by providing palm oil to Russia.

Over the past few years, Malaysia has weighed buying the Su-30MKM and the U.S.-made F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, which is also a combination air combat and ground strike fighter. Malaysia’s purchase of the Su-30MKMs does not rule out the possibility it might purchase Super Hornets in the future.

Malaysia’s air force is currently comprised of both Russian and U.S. fighter jets. Russia delivered 18 MiG-29N fighters to Malaysia in 1995. Two years later, the United States exported eight F/A-18D combat aircraft to the country.

U.S. Disposes of Weapons-Usable Fissile Material

The Department of Energy (DOE) recently announced that it achieved significant milestones in two programs: a project to convert weapons-grade fissile material to nuclear fuel for power stations and the cleanup of a former U.S. nuclear weapons facility site.

As part of the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Blend-Down Program, South Carolina’s Savannah River Site in mid-July sent its first shipment of low-enriched uranium—converted from excess weapons-grade, HEU—to Nuclear Fuel Services in Tennessee. There, the uranium will be converted into fuel that will be used for civilian energy purposes at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant in Alabama. The project will continue through 2007.

In addition, Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham announced August 19 that Rocky Flats, the former plutonium trigger production site near Denver, sent out its last shipment of fissile material as part of its shutdown process. Manufacturing of plutonium pits—which trigger detonation of a thermonuclear weapon—ended at the site in 1989 after it was deemed an environmental hazard and shut down. Initial studies estimated that cleanup and closure would take up to 65 years, but in 1995 the DOE and its contractors established an accelerated schedule due to the potential danger posed by the large amount of plutonium at the site and its proximity to a heavily populated area.

Plutonium from Rocky Flats is being shipped to Savannah River Site, where it will later be converted into fuel for civilian nuclear reactors. Despite political wrangling between Abraham and South Carolina Governor Jim Hodges (D) over shipping Rocky Flats’ plutonium to Savannah River Site in 2002, the Rocky Flats site is on track to be completely closed down by 2006. (See ACT, May 2002.)

Russian Sub Patrols Sink to Zero in 2002

Russia did not send any ballistic submarine patrols out to sea in 2002 but restarted the patrols in 2003, according to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), which monitors Russian fleet movements.

According to documents procured under the Freedom of Information Act by Joshua Handler and Hans Kristensen, consultants to the Natural Resources Defense Council, first reported in the July/August issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the number of patrols declined from 37 in 1991 to zero in 2002. Russian ballistic submarine patrols resumed in 2003, however, but an unnamed source from ONI said in a July 5 Washington Post article that only “a very small number” have been made so far.

The gradual deterioration of Russia’s ballistic nuclear submarine fleet due to financial constraints and the advanced age of the ships contributed to the absence of Russian patrols last year. Highlighting these problems, a decommissioned Russian nuclear submarine sank August 30 while being towed. Yet, despite these difficulties, Russia remains committed to extending the life of its ballistic submarine program. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced July 25 that in 2006 the Russian navy would receive the Yuri Dolgoruky, the next-generation submarine currently under development. Although the hull was laid in 1996, the program’s financial difficulties postponed the boat’s completion from the original 2002 delivery date.

Russia hopes to launch two more submarines soon thereafter, Jane’s Defence Weekly reported August 13. Col. Gen. Alexei Moskovsky, Russian deputy defense minister, indicated that, with sufficient funding, the two additional boats will be in service by 2010. Moskovsky told the weekly that the three new submarines will carry Bulava ballistic missiles, which closely resemble the SS-27 Topol-M. Moskovsky warned, however, that “underfunding may result in postponing the deadlines by one-and-a-half to two years.”

Russia Acquires Soviet-Era Missiles from Ukraine

Ukraine has transferred Soviet-made SS-19 missiles to Russia, Interfax-Military news service reported July 25, but it is unclear exactly when the transfer occurred or how many missiles were involved. Each SS-19 missile can carry up to six nuclear warheads.

The Ukrainian government had approved the sale in October 2002. The missiles had remained in Ukraine after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Experts estimate that Ukraine had possessed around 32 SS-19 missiles, but the governments refused to specify whether Ukraine transferred all of the missiles.

Previously, the United States and Ukraine had agreed to destroy the missiles under the Cooperative Threat Reduction program; it is unclear whether Russia will maintain or eventually dismantle the missiles. According to numbers reported under START I, Russia possessed 150 SS-19 missiles prior to the transfer of the Ukrainian missiles.

Countries Meet to Present Progress in Ballistic Missile Reduction

More than 100 countries aim to share information on their ballistic missile programs by the end of September, but it is uncertain whether some countries, including the United States, will present their reports by that time.

Meeting June 24-25 in Vienna for the first time since last November’s establishment of the International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, the 106 participating countries in the voluntary initiative set September 30 as the target date for the first of what are to be annual reports on their ballistic missile programs. Thereafter, the nonbinding reporting goal will be July 31.

A State Department official interviewed at the end of July said the United States might not meet this year’s September date, explaining that it was not a deadline.

In the annual reports, countries are to detail their ballistic missile and space launch vehicle policies, as well as provide information on any types of ballistic missiles or space launch vehicles fired or tested during the preceding year. Countries are still working out some of the specifics on what the reports will cover, such as whether the minimum range of a ballistic missile to be reported on should be 300 or 500 kilometers, according to one diplomat. The reports will not be made public.

The code also calls upon participating countries to provide advance notice of their ballistic missile or space launch vehicle launches and test flights. A pre-launch notification system has yet to be established.

Development of the system is on hold until a U.S.-Russian pre-launch notification process is up and running. The U.S.-Russian project is to serve as the foundation and model for the broader code system. Washington and Moscow agreed in 2000 to exchange information on pending launches, but actual implementation of the agreement has been delayed because the Kremlin wants the United States to pay taxes and assume liability for the notification system’s setup and operation in Russia—a demand the United States rejects.

The next meeting of countries subscribing to the code is scheduled for October in New York, at which it is expected that the status of the annual reports and pre-launch notification system will be discussed. How to expand participation in the code to countries not currently involved, such as China, India, and Pakistan, will also likely be on the agenda.