India, Pakistan Trade Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests
Returning to an old pattern of tit-for-tat missile testing, India
and Pakistan each tested short-range, nuclear-capable missiles March
26. It is not clear who launched the first missile, but most media
reports suggest India took the lead.
Since the back-to-back 1998 nuclear tests, a missile test by one
state has usually prompted the other to respond with its own test
in a face-off of missile strength and capability. This January and
February, however, India tested four missiles without any response
from Pakistan. (See
ACT, March 2003.)
Both countries signed a joint memorandum of understanding in Lahore,
Pakistan, in 1999, which requires that prior notice be given before
a ballistic missile test takes place. This memorandum was signed
shortly after the 1998 nuclear tests in order to engage the two
states in confidence-building measures to limit the threat of an
actual nuclear showdown. In a March 26 statement, however, the Pakistani
Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Pakistan did not receive notice
from India this time and that the missile test came as a surprise.
A spokesman with the Indian embassy in Washington said India informed
“all relevant entities.”
In response to a question about the possible lack of notification
on India’s side, an official Indian spokesperson said in a
March 26 press briefing, “The confidence-building measure which
will really have any meaning is for Pakistan to end its senseless
perpetration of terrorism against India.” India blames Pakistan
for directly supporting militants who oppose Indian rule in its
portion of the disputed Kashmir territory; Pakistan denies direct
involvement.
It is unclear how far Pakistan has progressed in developing the
Abdali missile that Pakistan tested March 26. The Prithvi-I that
India tested, however, has been inducted into the Indian armed forces,
according to a March 5 statement by Indian Defense Minister George
Fernandes.
India is developing and testing five different missile systems
under its Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP).
When the defense department determines that a particular missile
has passed the required test, the missile might be put into production
for use—induction—into the military. Several of the five
systems are currently in the process of being inducted into the
armed forces, including the Prithvi-II, the Dhanush, and both variants
of the Agni missile, Fernandes said.
It is unclear when the Agni missiles will be available for military
use. The Agni-I and Agni-II missiles are “under production,”
Fernandes said in the March 5 statement. This is the second time
that Fernandes has said that the 2,000-kilometer range Agni-II is
ready for production and induction. In March 2002, he stated that
the Agni-II “entered [the] production phase and is currently
under induction.”
A third, longer-range variant of the Agni—the Agni-III—has
not yet been tested, and it is unclear how far along it is in development.
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