Russia Has Mixed Success With CFE Implementation
Russia showed mixed success in July toward meeting commitments
under the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty and related
agreements, missing a July 1 deadline to vacate a military base
in Georgia but reducing the number of weapons located in Moldova.
In November 1999, Russia committed to closing two of its four military
bases in Georgia by July 1, 2001, and to withdraw all its CFE-limited
weaponry from Moldova by the end of 2001. The CFE Treaty caps the
number of tanks, armored combat vehicles (ACVs), heavy artillery,
combat aircraft, and attack helicopters that its 30 states-parties
can deploy and store between the Atlantic Ocean and the Ural Mountains.
Although it officially handed over control of a Russian military
base in Vaziani, Georgia, to Tbilisi on June 29, Russia failed to
vacate a base at Gudauta by the July 1 deadline. Moscow claimed
the local population had blocked Russian efforts to leave the base
and that Georgia had failed to take necessary steps to ensure a
safe withdrawal of Russian forces from the region.
Georgia dismissed Russia’s claims, contending that it had
proposed alternative ways for Moscow to complete its withdrawal,
including destruction of weaponry located at the base, but that
Russia had rejected these suggestions. In a July 2 statement released
by its Foreign Ministry, Georgia called on Russia to “take
immediate and exhaustive measures for timely and complete fulfillment”
of its withdrawal obligations.
The two governments are now holding talks to find a compromise,
including the possibility of allowing a few hundred Russian troops
to remain at the base. They are also trying to negotiate terms for
Russia’s withdrawal from two other Georgian bases, which Tbilisi
wants done within a three-year period, while Moscow is seeking a
time frame of up to 14 years.
In Moldova, Russia is facing a more immediate deadline for complete
withdrawal of all of its weapons and forces by the end of 2002.
Although Moscow is generally perceived to be dragging its feet on
meeting this overall commitment, it made substantial progress in
July and August on its obligation to reduce its CFE-limited weaponry
by the end of this year. Of the108 T-64 battle tanks and 131 ACVs
Russia had in Moldova, just 25 tanks and 57 ACVs remain as of August
28, according to a spokesperson of the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe, which is monitoring Russia’s reduction
activities in Moldova. Moscow is scheduled to start eliminating
125 heavy artillery pieces in October.
Within its borders, Russia is abiding by its overall CFE Treaty
limits but it continues to deploy tanks and ACVs above sub-limits
that cap its weapons deployments in its northern and southern regions,
according to data from a recent treaty information exchange. The
Kremlin claims its non-compliance is necessary to combat “terrorism”
in Chechnya.
Russia’s excess is relatively small, numbering not more than
20 tanks and some 130 ACVs above the sublimits, which were outlined
in a November 1999 overhaul of the treaty that has yet to enter
into force. The United States and its fellow NATO members have conditioned
their ratification of the agreement on all states-parties being
in compliance with its provisions.
There is speculation that, even though Russia is close to compliance,
it is unlikely to reduce its weapons holdings below the sublimits
for some time because it may want to send additional forces into
Chechnya. The Kremlin may be calculating that it would face less
international condemnation and scrutiny by further exceeding the
limits than by coming into compliance and then exceeding the limits
again.
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