NEWS BRIEFS

Russia Re-Establishes Independent Space Forces

Israel Plans to Buy U.S. F-16 Fighters

Russia, India Agree to Joint Military Projects

Russia Permits Aluminum Shipment to Iran

U.S. Shifts Its South Asia Nuclear Policy

Moving away from the Clinton administration’s nuclear policy toward South Asia, the Bush administration has apparently decided not to try to persuade India and Pakistan to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) or to give up their nuclear weapons programs.

In a June 18 meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Abdul Sattar, Secretary of State Colin Powell did not raise the issue of CTBT signature, according to State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. When asked during a press briefing the next day whether Indian and Pakistani adherence to the CTBT is still a priority for the United States, Boucher responded, “The important thing to the United States is that nuclear developments not be carried any farther, and to that extent, the emphasis that we place on this in this administration has been that there not be any further testing.”

The Bush administration’s approach contrasts with that of the Clinton administration, which actively tried to convince India and Pakistan to go beyond their testing moratoria—declared by both states following their May 1998 nuclear tests—by signing the CTBT. To realize this objective and other nuclear-related goals in the region, the Clinton team conducted years of bilateral meetings with both states.

The Bush administration also seems to have shifted from the Clinton administration’s ultimate goal of persuading the two South Asian states to relinquish their nuclear weapons programs. At a June 9 press conference in Finland, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said that the United States and “other interested countries” should encourage India and Pakistan to “learn that is it possible to live with nuclear weapons and not to use them.” Rumsfeld said he hoped that the two countries could “develop a stable situation” like that of the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War. When asked if Rumsfeld’s remarks indicated a policy change, the Pentagon said it was not prepared to comment.

Russia Re-Establishes Independent Space Forces

Russia has re-established its military space forces as an independent branch of the country’s armed forces. The newly established Space Forces—responsible for the operation of early-warning satellites and radars, the Moscow-area missile defense system, and other space-based capabilities such as photo-reconnaissance satellites—officially began operation June 1.

The transition appears to be related to the demotion of the Strategic Rocket Forces, which lost its independent status in April and will likely be subsumed into the air force. (See ACT, June 2001.) Russia’s military space forces had been independent until they were incorporated into the rocket forces as part of military reforms enacted in 1997.

Space Forces chief Colonel General Anatoly Perminov has said the change indicates that Russia has recognized the increasing importance of space assets in conventional conflicts. At the same time, Perminov has emphasized in a recent series of press briefings and interviews that the increased prominence of the force should not be misinterpreted as evidence of a Russian intention to weaponize space.

Perminov takes command of a satellite network that is widely considered to be crumbling. Just last month, a control center for key early-warning satellites burned down, at least temporarily limiting Russia’s ability to detect the launch of long-range missiles from the United States. (See ACT, June 2001.)

Israel Plans to Buy U.S. F-16 Fighters

Amid displays of some of the most advanced weaponry available on the international arms market, Israeli government officials at the Paris Air Show notified U.S. aerospace manufacturer Lockheed Martin on June 19 that Israel would buy at least another 50 F-16I combat aircraft later this decade. Israel is exercising an option from a January 2000 contract, worth $2.5 billion for 50 F-16I fighters, that stipulated Israel could purchase up to an additional 60 fighters for an extra $2 billion.

The potential sale is unlikely to run into major hurdles even though the Israeli use of previously supplied U.S. F-16s to strike Palestinian targets May 18 upset some in the U.S. Congress. During a June 3 interview with CNN, Secretary of State Colin Powell indicated that Washington would prefer not to see U.S.-supplied weaponry used against the Palestinians.

At the request of Representative John Conyers (D-MI), the U.S. General Accounting Office is conducting a review of the terms and conditions of U.S. government arms sales to countries in the Middle East. Conyers is seeking to determine whether terms attached to earlier U.S. weapons sales to Israel would rule out their use against Palestinians, and whether Israel violated these terms in its May bombings.

For the option from the January 2000 deal to be exercised, the United States must negotiate a contract with Israel for the purchase of the additional 50 fighters. If a deal is reached, Israel will start taking delivery of the second batch of fighters in 2006 after the first 50 have been delivered, a process that will begin in 2003. Israel currently has approximately 250 F-16s and 100 F-15 combat aircraft supplied by the United States in service.

Russia, India Agree to Joint Military Projects

Meeting in Moscow for the first time under the Inter-Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation established last October, top Russian and Indian officials pledged during the first week of June to work together on a range of joint military projects. Though Russian and Indian press accounts were filled with reports of major arms deals, the two sides signed no new weapons contracts.

The officials agreed to cooperate on a new fifth-generation fighter aircraft, a multipurpose military transport aircraft, and an air defense system for India, which could include a long-talked-about purchase of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles.

India and Russia are also reportedly discussing an Indian buy of three Russian aircraft, which would be fitted with the sophisticated Israeli Phalcon radar system, giving New Delhi an advanced airborne early-warning capability. Russia was involved in a similar arrangement with Israel and China that got cancelled last July when Israel heeded U.S. protests to drop the deal. (See ACT, September 2000.) The Bush administration has not publicly commented on the possible Israeli-Indian deal, but Israeli officials are reportedly staying in touch with Washington on the issue.

Russia Permits Aluminum Shipment to Iran

Reports emerged in mid-June that Russia had allowed an unknown quantity of high-strength aluminum to be shipped to Iran earlier this year. The shipment is of potential concern because certain special aluminum alloys can be used in high-speed gas centrifuges to produce enriched uranium, and the United States has long been concerned that Moscow’s nuclear energy ties with Teheran may be facilitating a clandestine Iranian nuclear weapons program.

According to The Washington Post, which first reported the shipment June 15, the United States and Israel alerted the Russian government to the shipment in late January; however, Russian inspectors who boarded the vessel reported that the aluminum was to be used in “aircraft manufacture” and allowed the ship to proceed to Iran. In a June 17 interview with Fox News Sunday, Secretary of State Colin Powell responded with skepticism to Russia’s assertions that the aluminum was intended for aircraft. “That’s what they say,” he said. “We have slightly different view.”

President George W. Bush raised the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons and missile programs at his June 16 meeting in Slovenia with Russian President Vladimir Putin. After the meeting, Putin acknowledged that he had discussed Iran with Bush, but in a June 18 interview with U.S. journalists, he maintained that there are no Russian programs to help Tehran produce nuclear weapons or missiles. Putin also defended Russia’s nuclear energy ties with Iran, comparing them to U.S. plans to build a light-water reactor in North Korea under the 1994 Agreed Framework. He also said that Moscow would do its best to stop any Russian entities trying to assist Iran’s nuclear weapons programs.

Aluminum alloys have many industrial and military uses, but the transfer of certain aluminum alloys is regulated by the Nuclear Suppliers Group—a group of 34 countries, including Russia, that have agreed to restrict the export of nuclear and dual-use equipment that could be used in connection with the manufacture of nuclear weapons.