 |
NEWS BRIEFS
U.S.-D.P.R.K. Missile Talks Make Little Progress
Russia Consolidates Leading Arms-Export Firms
DOE Authorizes Restructuring of Lab Contracts
China Seeks Airborne Radar From Russia
Second Review Conference on Balkan Arms Held
United Nations Passes Arms Control Resolutions
Export Administration Act Reauthorized
Iraq Meets With UN Secretary-General
Slovakia Completes Destruction of SS-23s
Poland Considers Leasing U.S. F-16s
U.S.-D.P.R.K. Missile Talks Make Little Progress
The United States and North Korea were unable to reach an agreement to end Pyongyang's indigenous missile development and missile-related exports during a seventh round of missile negotiations November 1-3 in Kuala Lumpur. It appears unlikely that the talks resolved enough outstanding issues to warrant a visit by President Bill Clinton before the end of his term, as proposed by North Korean Vice Marshal Jo Myong Rok during his October discussions with high-level U.S. officials in Washington. (See ACT, November 2000.)
Assistant Secretary of State Robert Einhorn characterized the discussions with his North Korean counterpart Jang Chang Chon as "detailed, constructive, and very substantive" in a November 3 statement. Although Einhorn noted that the United States and North Korea "continued to expand common ground," he emphasized that "significant issues remain to be explored and resolved."
At a November 15 press conference in Brunei prior to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, Ambassador Wendy Sherman, special adviser to the president on North Korea, told reporters that progress on the missile issue had indeed been made and that the negotiations had achieved "positive clarification" on Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's discussions with Chairman Kim Jong-Il in October. Albright told reporters October 24 that Kim had pledged not to conduct any further tests of the Taepo Dong-1 ballistic missile.
Despite the State Department's positive spin on the results of the missile talks, many observers had believed that more substantial progress would be made in the discussions, leading to the first-ever trip by a sitting U.S. president to North Korea. Nevertheless, in a November 20 interview with CNN, Clinton said that "it's conceivable that there could still be a trip" to meet with Kim. Clinton opted not to continue to North Korea after his six-day trip to Vietnam, which had been considered the most likely time for a visit.
Russia Consolidates Leading Arms-Export Firms
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree November 4 merging Russia's two largest state-owned arms exporters into a single new company called Rosoboronexport. Putin ordered the merger to stop the two leading exporters, Rosvooruzheniye and Promexport, from competing against one another and, in effect, driving down the cost of Russian weaponry, an important source of hard currency for Moscow. The new company, which will handle an estimated 90 percent of all Russian arms exports, will report to the Ministry of Defense as opposed to the Ministry of Industry, Science and Technology, which previously oversaw Russian arms exports.
Putin's decree marked the reversal of an August 1997 effort by then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin to increase Russian arms exports in the post-Cold War market by breaking up Rosvooruzheniye's state-granted monopoly of the Russian arms trade through the creation of two additional entities, Promexport and Russian Technologies. Yeltsin assigned each entity separate responsibilities, hoping to streamline the Russian arms export process, but the boundaries between the entities blurred, leading to unexpected competition.
Andrei Belyaninov, a deputy director of Promexport, was appointed head of Rosoboronexport, while deputy positions at the new company were reportedly offered to the directors of Rosvooruzheniye and Promexport, which merged with Russian Technologies earlier this year.
Since the end of the Cold War, Moscow has sought to increase its share of the arms market after experiencing a dramatic decline in new weapons deals. Russian arms deliveries fell to a few billion dollars per year over the past decade after exceeding $20 billion per year during the mid- and late- 1980s. Though the Congressional Research Service reported in August that Russian arms agreements rose from $2.5 billion in 1998 to $4.8 billion in 1999, new deals have often fallen short of Russian industry forecasts. In a November 13 statement, the Kremlin reassured current clients that all existing contracts would be fulfilled and that talks underway would not be slowed by Putin's decree.
DOE Authorizes Restructuring of Lab Contracts
Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson accepted on October 17 the recommendations of General John Gordon, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, for improving security at the two nuclear weapons laboratories managed by the University of California. According to a press release from the Department of Energy (DOE), Richardson authorized Gordon to "immediately restructure" contracts with the university to address "security and management issues." Richardson also indicated that the department will begin negotiations to extend the university's contract for three years, through September 2005. A senior DOE official confirmed that "the contract will be extended."
On June 30, the secretary tasked Gordon with preparing recommendations to restructure the university's contract, under which it manages both Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories. At that time, Gordon said he would attempt to improve security and management of the labs "without compromising the strength of their cutting-edge science and research." The labs have faced protracted criticism over security lapses, including, most recently, the disappearance of hard drives containing classified data from the X Division, Los Alamos' nuclear weapons design group. (See ACT, July/August 2000.)
Gordon's suggested improvements include the establishment of a new University of California vice president position to oversee the labs, the hiring of security and management "subcontractor experts," and the establishment of a "Laboratory Senior Management Council" that will report directly to the university president on "key management and security issues."
Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs Madelyn Creedon, who oversees the nuclear weapons infrastructure for DOE, said in an October 17 press briefing that "the fundamental conclusion was that [the University of California] has to be responsible…for the operations of these facilities." Creedon emphasized that DOE officials intend to keep the university "on the hook," rather than relieving it of responsibility by assigning security to a separate subcontractor.
In an October 18 statement, Representative John Dingell (D-MI), the ranking member of the House Commerce Committee and the university's most vocal critic during recent congressional hearings into alleged security lapses, criticized extension of the university's contract as "business as usual" and decried DOE's "coddling of its contractor."
China Seeks Airborne Radar From Russia
Visiting Beijing in early November, Russian officials discussed possible new arms deals with China, including the sale of up to five planes designed for airborne early-warning (AEW) missions. China currently does not possess any AEW platforms, which enable militaries to significantly extend the range at which they can monitor foreign military activities and guide their own aircraft. In 1996, China concluded a deal to acquire an Israeli AEW system, known as the Phalcon, but Israel pulled out of the deal July 11 under heavy U.S. pressure. Washington had been concerned about how the sale could impact the military balance in the Taiwan Strait. (See ACT, September 2000.)
Russia is reportedly offering China upgraded versions of the Beriev A-50 plane, referred to as "Mainstay" by NATO, which would permit China to simultaneously track tens, and perhaps hundreds, of targets as far as 400 kilometers away, while directing some 10-30 Chinese aircraft. A June 2000 Pentagon report indicated that Chinese incorporation of AEW and aerial refueling planes could be a "significant force multiplier for China's air forces, although only for relatively small numbers of aircraft at any one time."
China is also reportedly interested in buying an additional two Sovremennyy-class destroyers from Russia. The first of two previously bought destroyers arrived in China this past February, while the second is expected to arrive by the end of the year.
Second Review Conference on Balkan Arms Held
Meeting in Vienna from October 31 to November 2, the parties to the June 1996 Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control held a review conference to assess implementation of the agreement and reaffirm their commitment to its weapon ceilings and inspection regime. The review conference, only the second in the agreement's history, had been originally scheduled for June but was postponed when the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) temporarily suspended its participation in the arms control accord. (See ACT, July/August 2000.) The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) described the review conference, chaired by the FRY delegation, as "very collegial."
Under the terms of the agreement, the FRY, Croatia, and the two entities comprising Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Bosnian Serb-controlled Republika Srpska) consented to caps on their holdings of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft, and attack helicopters. The governments also agreed to permit inspections of and exchange information on their weapons holdings. Since signing the agreement, the parties have met their arms limits, destroying more than 7,000 weapons in the process.
At the review conference, the parties expressed "their satisfaction" with implementation of the agreement and "their willingness to consider any measures that would increase transparency and cooperation," according to an OSCE press release. The parties have not yet used all the existing provisions for increased transparency in the agreement, however, such as the option of conducting undeclared site inspections.
Future implementation of the agreement could be affected by the change of government in the FRY. Slobodan Milosevic, who orchestrated the wars that resulted in the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, relinquished the FRY presidency October 6, after demonstrators stormed government buildings to support the September 24 election of opposition leader Vojislav Kostunica. The United Nations granted the FRY membership November 1, and the OSCE followed suit November 10.
United Nations Passes Arms Control Resolutions
The United Nations General Assembly adopted 48 resolutions and one decision November 20 on what the UN termed "a broad range of disarmament measures." The resolutions, all recommended by the assembly's First Committee, which is tasked with disarmament and international security issues, dealt with the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, nuclear disarmament, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and a number of related non-proliferation and arms control objectives.
The assembly adopted a resolution calling for continued compliance with the ABM Treaty, as well as for efforts to strengthen the agreement, "so that it remains a cornerstone in maintaining global strategic stability." Eighty-eight nations voted in favor of the resolution, while five (Albania, Micronesia, Honduras, Israel, and the United States) opposed it, and 66 abstained. The resolution was strongly supported by Russia and is nearly identical to a resolution the General Assembly adopted in December 1999.
Other adopted resolutions included calls for early signature and ratification of the CTBT, a redoubling of non-proliferation efforts, unilateral reductions of non-strategic nuclear weapons, and the engagement of all nuclear-weapon states in a process leading to the total elimination of nuclear weapons. In almost all cases, vote tallies were overwhelmingly in favor of the pro-arms control resolutions, although many nations chose to abstain on what were presumably more controversial votes, such as the ABM Treaty resolution.
Export Administration Act Reauthorized
On November 13, President Bill Clinton signed legislation reauthorizing the 1979 Export Administration Act (EAA), which increases the penalties that U.S. exporters could face for violating U.S. export control laws on dual-use equipment and technologies. The EAA expired on August 20, 1994, and since then, the Department of Commerce has been enforcing U.S. export control laws under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which levies smaller fines for violations, grants agents from the Bureau of Export Administration lesser police powers, and lacks the confidentiality provisions for U.S. exporters that appear in the EAA.
Under the reauthorized EAA, violators of U.S. export control laws will face fines of up to $10,000 for civil infractions and $100,000 for violations of national security controls. Individuals found guilty of willful violations could face a fine up to $250,000 and a possible 10 years imprisonment, and corporations could be fined $1 million or five times the value of the exports. Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the maximum penalties were $10,000 for civil violations and $50,000 and 10 years imprisonment for willful violations.
Upon signing the legislation, Clinton called the reauthorization a "small but significant step." He noted that the time to revise the EAA is "long overdue," and argued that an updated EAA "must recognize the current realities of a fast-paced highly competitive global market and at the same time help ensure our national security by controlling the export of sensitive dual-use items that have military and nonmilitary applications." The House of Representatives passed revisions in 1996 and the Senate Banking Committee approved an overhaul in September 1999, but the full Congress has yet to pass a revised act because of disputes over what technologies should be subject to control and how best to balance U.S. national security concerns with business interests.
Under the recently signed reauthorization, the EAA will expire again on August 20, 2001.
Iraq Meets With UN Secretary-General
At the request of the Iraqi government, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan met with Iraqi Vice President Ezzat Ibrahim on the sidelines of a November 13 conference in Qatar. Although Annan would not reveal the details of his discussions, he described the meeting as "frank and useful" and confirmed that discussions included "ways and means to break the current deadlock." Baghdad has refused to allow UN-mandated weapons inspectors into the country since the December 1998 U.S.-British airstrikes against Iraq and remains subject to stringent sanctions put in place after the Persian Gulf War.
Ibrahim's meeting with Annan, however, comes as the sanctions regime appears to be weakening. Over the past few months, Iraq has tested the limits of the postwar settlement by resuming foreign airline passenger service to Baghdad and domestic commercial flights through the so-called no-fly-zones. It has also re-established diplomatic relations with several countries, most notably with Egypt on November 7.
Annan has little latitude to negotiate with Iraq, as he is limited to serving as an intermediary between the UN Security Council and Baghdad. Only the Security Council can reach an agreement with Iraq altering Resolution 1284, which lays out the terms for easing sanctions on Iraq. Annan called the current situation "unhealthy" but said he confidently believed that Iraq and the UN would "find ways of discussing things."
Though some observers have warned that Iraq is "breaking out of the box," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said November 6 that the "basic sanctions regime" remains in place and continues to work. "The only way to get any kind of serious suspension of sanctions is to go through Resolution 1284…. That continues to work and continues to have the support of the international community," Boucher remarked. At a November 22 briefing, he added, "We are not interested in negotiating 1284."
Slovakia Completes Destruction of SS-23s
Slovakia destroyed the last parts of its six remaining Soviet-era SS-23 intermediate-range ballistic missiles on October 27. The dismantling of the technologically obsolete missiles, which was begun in May, has been a long-standing U.S. policy objective and received U.S. funding. (See ACT, June 2000.)
The SS-23 "Spider" missile was banned under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union, which eliminated all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Slovakia acquired the 400-500 kilometer range SS-23s following the 1993 dissolution of Czechoslovakia, which had acquired the missiles from the Soviet Union. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, which also received the missiles from the Soviet Union, all disposed of their SS-23 systems years ago. The Slovak missiles reached the end of their service lives in 1998, but financial constraints prevented their destruction at that time.
Presiding over the final destruction of the missiles in Slovakia, John Holum, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said that Slovakia had made "a huge contribution toward realizing the goals of the INF Treaty and to improving European security."
Poland Considers Leasing U.S. F-16s
Aiming to meet force targets set out before it officially joined NATO in 1999, Poland is weighing the possible lease of 16 F-16A/B fighters from the United States. Polish Defense Minister Bronislaw Komorowski discussed the offer in November with U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen in Washington. At a November 8 joint press conference, both defense officials said no final decision had yet been reached.
After being invited to join NATO in July 1997, Poland and NATO held negotiations to determine what future force levels would enable Warsaw to provide for its own defense and to contribute to overall alliance defense and other alliance missions, such as peacekeeping operations. As a result of those talks, Poland pledged to have 16 NATO-compatible fighters by 2003 and a total of 60 a few years later. During his recent Washington visit, Komorowski reiterated that Poland "wants to be a reliable member of NATO," but acknowledged that current Polish defense spending is "not sufficient from the point of view of modern NATO members and the requirements of NATO."
The Pentagon, recognizing the current Polish budget crunch, has offered the F-16s for only the cost of upgrading them for NATO interoperability, estimated at more than $200 million. If Poland accepts the U.S. offer, it increases the likelihood that Poland would turn to the United States for its future fighter buys. Cohen stated he believes the F-16 offer is in the "best interests of both the United States and the Polish militaries and our security relationship."
The Czech Republic and Hungary, which both joined NATO at the same time as Poland, are also looking at future fighter options to meet their alliance commitments. The Czech Republic is seeking to buy 36 new fighters, while Hungary suggested in July that it might upgrade 14 of its Soviet-produced MiG-29 fighters to meet its short-term obligations.
|
