NEWS BRIEFS

BWC Ad Hoc Group Inches Forward

Former Weapons Inspector Returns to Iraq

Russia Issues New Foreign Policy Concept

UNMOVIC Releases Modified Readiness Report

G-8 Addresses Russian Plutonium Disposition

Russia and the United States agreed to each dispose of 34 metric tons of weapons-origin plutonium at their recent Moscow summit, and U.S. Vice President Al Gore signed the agreement September 1 after Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov had formally approved the document earlier that week. (See ACT, July/August 2000.) Washington has made it clear that Moscow's fulfillment of its side of the agreement is contingent on international assistance. "[Russia's] program will simply not go forward unless there is a very substantial international financing plan," Guhin stated at a June 29 press briefing.

The Russian program is estimated to cost $1.7 billion, and Guhin emphasized that the United States is willing to provide "up to $400 million in assistance," in addition to the $4 billion it is expecting to spend to meet its own commitments under the agreement. Anticipating a deal, Congress had allocated $200 million for the Russian effort in 1998, funds that will soon be available now that an agreement has been reached.

To date, Russia has made no financial commitment to the program. It is not clear at this time how the remaining funds will be raised.

Although the United States had initially hoped to reach agreement on a more concrete financial assistance plan, in the months prior to the G-8 summit it became clear that relevant details of the agreement would need to be worked out with Russia before such a package could be negotiated. Britain announced at the summit that it was allocating just over $100 million, in addition to $18 million for Russian chemical weapons demilitarization.

BWC Ad Hoc Group Inches Forward

The Ad Hoc Group has been meeting since 1995 to negotiate a legally binding protocol to the BWC to make the convention more effective. The BWC outlaws biological weapons but contains no verification mechanisms. In the summer of 1997, the group began using a rolling text—a draft of the protocol—as the basis for the negotiations. It appears that overcoming the remaining disputes will require the release of a new text. Most delegations expect that this text will come from the chair, but it is not clear when this might happen.

In an effort to give the negotiations a much-needed push, Tóth switched the group's negotiating procedures, shifting the focus away from sessions led by Friends of the Chair, who are delegates appointed by the chair to take the lead on specific matters. Instead, for the first time, he held bilateral consultations directly with delegations throughout the session to explore ways to resolve remaining principal disputes, which center on compliance measures, provisions for the transfer of agents and dual-use equipment, and the definition of terms in the protocol. (See ACT, March and May 2000.)

The Ad Hoc Group has been aiming to conclude its negotiations by the fifth BWC review conference in 2001. Along these lines, the world's leading industrial powers pledged at the July Group of Eight summit to work to finish negotiations on the "verification protocol" as "early as possible in 2001." The Ad Hoc Group is scheduled to meet again from November 20 to December 8.

Former Weapons Inspector Returns to Iraq

Baghdad authorized Ritter to visit weapons sites in Iraq, but the former inspector declined the offer, concerned that skeptics would deride the video as Iraqi propaganda. Ritter plans to have the documentary fully edited by the end of September. The film is being financed by a $400,000 line of credit from an Iraqi-American businessman, but Ritter says that he has complete control over the film's content.

In an article in the June issue of Arms Control Today, Ritter advocated redefining Iraq's disarmament obligations along "more realistic qualitative benchmarks" in return for the readmittance of inspectors, thus ending the current standoff with Iraq. (See p. 34.) Once Iraq is found to be complying with the new standards and a new monitoring regime is established, sanctions would be lifted. The former inspector asserts that, for all intents and purposes, Iraq was disarmed when UNSCOM inspectors left Iraq in December 1998 and that Iraq has not meaningfully reconstituted its weapons of mass destruction programs.

During an August 1 press briefing, State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said that "it is fairly obvious" the State Department disagrees with "some of the assertions made by Mr. Ritter."

Russia Issues New Foreign Policy Concept

Formally signed by President Vladimir Putin June 28, the new document replaces the foreign policy concept issued in 1993. Much of the new concept deals directly with arms control and related issues, observing early on that "the threat of nuclear conflict has been reduced to a minimum." In this context, the concept not only notes Russia's "consent" to further negotiated strategic reductions but also reaffirms Moscow's interest in preserving the ABM Treaty and warns that U.S. deployment of missile defenses will compel Russia to adopt "adequate measures."

The concept stresses the importance of continued cooperation with NATO, although it also acknowledges present-day tensions between NATO and Russia. Perhaps most notably, the concept states that Russia "is prepared to overcome considerable latter-day difficulties in relations with the U.S….despite the presence of serious, and in a number of cases, fundamental differences." The concept goes on to note, "Above all, this concerns problems of disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction," and argues against "allowing pauses in relations."

The concept also states Russia's interest in Indian and Pakistani accession to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, as well as Russia's support for nuclear-weapon-free zones in Asia. And it enunciates Moscow's support for reductions in conventional armed forces, particularly in the context of the Conventional Forces in Europe agreement.

The Russian press has widely praised the new concept for its pragmatism, particularly in its discussion of relations with the United States and NATO. However, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov noted at a July 10 news conference that "we do not intend to and will not relinquish our national interests."

UNMOVIC Releases Modified Readiness Report

The U.S., Russian, Chinese, and French members of the College of Commissioners, a body of experts established to advise UNMOVIC, suggested Blix indicate that UNMOVIC "could plan and commence…activities in Iraq…to prepare for monitoring, verification, and inspection," rather than saying UNMOVIC is "now in a position to start activities in Iraq." Baghdad refuses to accept Resolution 1284, and the commissioners apparently believed the report's original language would have forced a divided Security Council to revisit the Iraq issue before the council was ready. Blix is scheduled to brief the Security Council September 11.

On August 31, UNMOVIC released a statement emphasizing that "the reality is that if Iraq were to accept Resolution 1284 today, UNMOVIC could and would send a team to Iraq to prepare for the extensive activities…envisaged by the Security Council." The statement also says that "even at the current level of recruitment and training," UNMOVIC is ready "to undertake some inspections."

UNMOVIC staff recently completed four weeks of training in New York, where approximately half of the trainees will remain as a core staff to begin preparatory work. The others will form a reserve, ready for work if the commission is allowed to begin inspections, according to UNMOVIC spokesman Ewen Buchanan. A second training course for additional UNMOVIC inspectors will be held from November 7 to December 8 in France. All UNMOVIC personnel are UN employees and are not on loan from UN member states, as was the case with UNSCOM.

As UNMOVIC continues its preparations, Iraq has remained defiant. Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz told reporters after an August 23 speech to the Iraqi National Assembly that Iraq will "not receive anyone who has anything to do with the resolution," according to official Iraqi radio. At an August 22 press briefing, State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said it is up to Baghdad to break the stalemate between the UN and Iraq and that if it does not, "the resolution will remain in place, and the sanctions will continue."