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NEWS BRIEFS
CTBTO Funding Remains in U.S. Budget
Pakistan Says It Will Not Be the First to Test
Japanese Minister Resigns Over Nuclear Remarks
Hungarian PM Angers Moscow With Nuke Remark
Israel Conducts Successful Arrow Test
Mixed U.S. Signals on Israel-China Deal
First of 150 Minuteman III Missile Silos Destroyed
CTBTO Funding Remains in U.S. Budget
Despite Senate rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in October, U.S. funding for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization's (CTBTO) network of monitoring stations remained untouched in the Foreign Operations FY2000 Appropriations bill. Under the auspices of the CTBTO's Provisional Technical Secretariat, the International Monitoring System (IMS) and International Data Centre (IDC) are responsible for establishing the 321 monitoring sites that will track nuclear explosions and share the data on a global telecommunications network.
According to an October 29 New York Times article, a handful of senior aides to Republican senators, in an attempt to ensure the CTBT did not come up for vote in a new Congress, tried to gut funding for the monitoring system in the foreign operations bill. However, the budget passed the Senate on November 19 with no change to the $15 million appropriated for the CTBTO.
A State Department source said that there was never any real threat to the money in the budget and that the issue was "overblown" by the Times article. There is a possibility that some aides or senators will try to push the issue again in next year's budget, he said, but the funding remains intact for now.
The United States is the largest contributor to the monitoring system, accounting for about 25 percent of the CTBTO's total operating budget of $75 million, with Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Germany also contributing significant amounts. In addition to the $15 million included in the foreign operations bill, the Pentagon budgets an average of $5 million per year for the IMS.
The verification regime, which was formed in 1995 during treaty negotiations, will be completed around 2001, according to the CTBTO. One hundred of the 321 monitoring stations already operational and transmitting data through the global network. Ninety countries will host stations upon completion, including China, Argentina, Russia and Italy.
Pakistan Says It Will Not Be the First to Test
International concerns that Pakistan's nuclear testing would resume under the leadership of a military government abated slightly in mid-November when Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar, announcing official government policy, said that Islamabad would not be the first to conduct any new nuclear tests. General Pervaiz Musharraf, who took control of Pakistan in a bloodless coup on October 12, had previously said that he would rule Pakistan's nuclear arsenal with restraint.
Sattar's statement came days before Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh met with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott in London on November 16 to discuss India's nuclear disarmament, as well as the possibility of India signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and participating in a future Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT). Though nothing concrete was produced, Indian Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee was quoted by an Indian newspaper as saying he was trying to build a consensus within India in favor of the CTBT, especially if signature and ratification meant a further lifting of U.S. sanctions imposed after India's nuclear tests in May 1998. During a visit to India in late October, Energy Secretary Bill Richardson had hinted that sanctions might be eased if India signed the CTBT.
Pakistan said it would not sign the CTBT until similar U.S. economic sanctions imposed on Islamabad were lifted. The United States suspended aid to Pakistan when the military government took control, but President Clinton said November 15 that he wants to secure Pakistan's cooperation on nuclear-weapons-related issues and was willing to "engage" the Musharraf government.
Japanese Minister Resigns Over Nuclear Remarks
Drawing domestic furor and international concern for his statement that Japan should consider developing nuclear weapons, Japanese Vice Defense Minister Shingo Nishimura resigned October 20 after being pressured into silence by the Japanese government.
In a magazine interview, Nishimura urged the Diet to consider arming Japan with nuclear weapons, despite the country's adherence to its post-war defense policy of three non-nuclear principles that ban the ownership, manufacturing or harboring of nuclear weapons. The only country to have had nuclear weapons used against it, Japan has been an adamantly anti-nuclear nation for more than half a century. On October 19, the Democratic, Social Democratic and Communist parties of Japan denounced the vice defense minister's remarks and accused Nishimura, a Liberal Party member, of making statements that ran counter to official Japanese nuclear policy. South Korea, which has cooperated with Tokyo on regional defense issues based on its non-nuclear policy, expressed "regret" over Nishimura's remarks and said it hoped his statements did not reflect official Japanese policy.
China said it was "greatly shocked" by Nishimura's remarks, but was reassured by Tokyo's restatement of its official nuclear policy. Nishimura, who is known for his hawkish views and frequent public disagreement with Japanese policy toward China, first sparked controversy in 1997 when, in opposition to his government, he traveled to a South China Sea island claimed by both China and Japan, and planted a Japanese flag in an attempt to demonstrate ownership.
Hungarian PM Angers Moscow With Nuke Remark
Russia sharply rebuked Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for a remark, published October 29 in The Toronto Globe and Mail, that Hungary would consider the deployment of NATO nuclear weapons on its territory during a crisis if asked to do so. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin charged that such action would be a "direct violation" of the May 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act.
In the Founding Act, which was designed to ease Russian opposition to NATO expansion, NATO members pledged that they had "no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members, nor any need to change any aspect of NATO's nuclear posture or nuclear policy." Since its inception, Clinton administration officials have viewed the act as a political, not a legal, document.
Orban subsequently clarified his remark, saying that there was currently no reason to deploy nuclear weapons in Hungary, but that Budapest "always considers all requests from the international community." The Hungarian government later released a statement asserting that its "interest lies in a well-managed cooperation between NATO and Russia," but that it fully supports NATO's military strategy, "including its basic principle of regarding nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantee of its members' security."
Israel Conducts Successful Arrow Test
On November 1, Israel conducted its first successful system-wide test of the joint U.S.-Israeli Arrow 2 ballistic missile defense system. The Arrow system, comprised of a fire-control radar system and battle-management center, in addition to the missiles and launcher, intercepted and destroyed a Scud-type target launched from a ship in the Mediterranean. Arrow project manager Danny Peretz said the interceptor missile was not programmed with the target's trajectory before the test, reported Ha'aretz newspaper.
Designed to intercept ballistic missiles at altitudes between six and 25 miles, the Arrow system will be deployed at fixed sites in Israel. Unlike the U.S. Theater High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) systems under development, the Arrow interceptor missile has a blast-fragmentation warhead rather than a hit-to-kill warhead, making it more likely that an incoming missile will be intercepted, but less likely that it will be completely destroyed.
Similar to U.S. theater missile defense efforts, Arrow has been plagued by delays. When Israel first started its theater missile defense program in 1986, the deployment of an initial operating capability was slated for 1995, but Israeli defense officials now estimate that such a capability will not be available until the middle of next year. The United States is paying for approximately $600 million of the estimated $1.6 billion program, which will finance deployment of two Arrow batteries, and the U.S. Congress recently approved $45 million to help fund Israeli acquisition of a third.
Mixed U.S. Signals on Israel-China Deal
A Russian-made aircraft destined for the Chinese military arrived in Israel October 25 to be outfitted with the Phalcon advanced airborne early-warning (AEW) radar system, eliciting contradictory reactions from the Clinton administration. While press reports indicated that the White House had raised concerns about the sale and other Israeli military transfers to China, the State Department publicly downplayed the deal.
In a November 12 press briefing State Department spokesman James Rubin said the U.S. government had "no reason to believe" that the Israeli radar contained any U.S.-controlled technology and therefore American law could not prohibit the sale. However, Rubin stressed that the U.S. regularly holds discussions with Israel on arms sales, particularly ones that involve "sophisticated technology."
Though receipt of the Israeli Phalcon radar system, which enables surveillance activities up to a range of 250 miles, will give China its first AEW capability, the benefit to the Chinese air force will be restricted by a number of practical factors, including the limited time that a single plane can be in service. Beijing will also have to train new crews to operate the plane and will be dependent upon Israel for future maintenance. The initial contract, signed in 1996, called for Israel to equip four Russian-manufactured IL-76 planes with the Phalcon radar, costing $250 million apiece, but Beijing may postpone radar installation on and delivery of the three remaining planes for budgetary reasons and to assess the performance of the first plane.
Israel and China have a history of arms deals and military cooperation dating back to 1979, including work on air-to-air missiles and China's latest indigenously built fighter aircraft, the J-10. On an October visit to Israel, Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian reportedly discussed Israeli upgrade of China's aging MiG-21 fleet.
First of 150 Minuteman III Missile Silos Destroyed
In an effort to comply with START I provisions and finish its destruction timetable by November 2001, the United States imploded the first of 150 Minuteman III ballistic missile silos in North Dakota on October 6.
The $12.1 million project, under the direction of the Air Force and the Army Corps of Engineers, will destroy only the 150 silos necessary for compliance with the treaty; 150 other sites remain "in service" in North Dakota, according to an Air Force official.
The last Minuteman III missile was removed from the silos slated for implosion in June 1998 after being taken off alert in 1995. Destruction of all the silos is estimated to take two years.
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