NEWS BRIEFS

Russia Admits CFE Violation

U.S. and EU Suspends Military Ties With Indonesia

South Africa Signs Arms Deals

U.S. HPCs to Be Moved to Russian Civilian Center

Pakistani Prime Minister Ousted in Bloodless Coup

Polish, Kazakh Arms Illegally Transferred

The illegal transfer of Soviet-era weapons from Kazakhstan and Poland to North Korea and Sudan respectively, two countries the United States classifies as state-sponsors of terrorism, raised the prospect of suspension of U.S. aid to Almaty and Warsaw in September. The United States, according to U.S. government officials, is still "working" the Kazakhstan case, while the Polish matter has been "resolved" with no cutting of U.S. aid.

U.S. law proscribes the appropriation of Foreign Assistance Act funds for states that export "lethal military equipment" to state-sponsors of international terrorism, though the secretary of state can impose other sanctions or waive any penalty.

Kazakhstan is facing the loss of approximately $15 million in aid for the alleged transfer of 30-40 MiG-21 fighter aircraft to North Korea. The Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry has repeatedly said the government was not involved in the transactions, and a U.S. government official said that there was "no reason" to believe President Nursultan Nazarbayev knew of the transfers. In a government shake-up in August associated with the arms deal, the defense minister and national security committee chairman were fired. Kazakhstan has requested the return of the MiGs, which North Korea claims it never received.

Polish officials admitted at the end of August that a shipment of 20 T-55 tanks never arrived in Yemen, their intended destination. Reports suggest the tanks turned up in Sudan. Poland canceled delivery of the remaining 30 tanks in the deal, which Washington had warned Warsaw against undertaking in the first place. Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek said September 7 that there was no "ill will" on the part of the Polish government.

Despite the diverted Polish transfer, the Czech government confirmed in October its intention to sell some 90 T-55 tanks to Yemen. One U.S. official said that Washington is "watching the deal very closely."

Russia Admits CFE Violation

In connection with its military offensive against Islamic militants in Dagestan, which has now spilled over into neighboring Chechnya, Russian defense officials admitted in early October that their forces in the Caucasus exceed arms limitations set by the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin later explained on October 12, according to Itar-Tass, that Russian deployments were of a "temporary and perforce character" and that Moscow did not want the current Caucasus situation to negatively affect ongoing CFE Treaty negotiations.

Moscow's announcement did not surprise the United States because Russia has been in violation of CFE flank limits, which cap the number of tanks, armored combat vehicles (ACVs) and artillery pieces in the northern and southern flanks of Europe, since May 31. (See ACT, July/August 1999.) However, State Department spokesman James Rubin noted October 8 that Washington is concerned about the fact that Russian ACV deployments exceed not only the CFE's current limit (1,380), but also the higher limit (2,140) proposed under the yet-to-be-completed adapted treaty. Rubin said Washington plans to "take up" the issue with Moscow.

Negotiations to alter the 1992 treaty from bloc and zone limits to one of national and territorial weapon ceilings have been underway in Vienna since January 1997. Negotiators from the 30 CFE states-parties are aiming to unveil an adapted treaty for signature by heads of state at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's November 18-19 summit in Istanbul, Turkey.

U.S. and EU Suspend Military Ties With Indonesia

Reacting to the mass violence engulfing East Timor, an island-nation invaded in 1975 and subsequently annexed by Indonesia, the United States and the 15-nation European Union (EU) suspended all military ties with Indonesia in early September. Violence broke out following an August 30 vote by East Timor to reject a proposed autonomy plan from Indonesian President B.J. Habibie, who had pledged that a no-vote would give East Timor independence. The Indonesian military ignored, and in some cases participated in, post-election violence carried out by pro-Indonesia militia and gangs.

In response, President Clinton suspended all military ties (both arms sales and military training programs) with Indonesia on September 9. Sandy Berger, the president's national security adviser, explained two days later that what had not already been delivered of about $40 million in outstanding U.S. government-to-government sales through the Pentagon's Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program and some $400 million in commercial arms sales would be put on hold. A Defense Department official subsequently said the suspension would halt $7 million in undelivered FMS items. The Council of the European Union, the EU's decision-making body, followed suit on September 16 by announcing an embargo on all arms, munitions and military equipment to Jakarta until at least January 17, 2000. Bilateral military cooperation was also suspended.

Indonesia, racked by economic recession, had slowed recent arms purchases, even postponing a 1997 buy of 12 Su-30K fighter aircraft and eight Mi-17 helicopters from Russia. In its latest UN Register of Conventional Arms report, Indonesia did claim receiving 39 armored combat vehicles from Britain in 1998.

On September 12, President Habibie bowed to international pressure and invited an international peacekeeping force to East Timor. The mission, led by Australia, arrived on September 20.

South Africa Signs Arms Deals

South Africa announced on September 15 that it had finalized arms deals totaling $3.5 billion for the purchase of three submarines, four navy patrol corvettes, 30 light utility helicopters, nine fighter aircraft and 12 trainer aircraft. Pretoria will also have the option, which is only valid until 2004, to acquire an additional 19 fighters and 12 trainers, which would push the total cost of the arms package up to approximately $5 billion. The trainer aircraft, helicopters and naval equipment, according to the South African Defense Department, will replace weapons that have been in service for more than 30 years.

Due to pressure from within the government, reportedly led by Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, the arms buys were scaled back from what had been previously announced last November. (See ACT, November/December 1998.) As part of the deals, the supplying nations—Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom—reportedly pledged to provide an estimated $17 billion in offset arrangements. The offsets include coproduction and countertrade agreements, as well as direct investment in South African companies.

U.S. HPCs to Be Moved to Russian Civilian Center

The Department of Energy (DOE) and Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy (MINATOM) have resolved a dispute over 16 IBM supercomputers that Russia acquired in 1996 by circumventing U.S. export controls. According to the new DOE-MINATOM agreement, announced September 30 by Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, the computers have been moved from nuclear weapons labs in Sarov (formerly known as Arzamas-16) to a civilian "open computing center."

IBM pleaded guilty in July 1998 to making the sale and agreed to pay the maximum-possible criminal and civil penalty of $8.67 million. (See ACT, August/September 1998.) Former MINATOM chief Victor Mikhailov said in January 1997 that Russia intended to use the computers for assuring the safety and reliability of its nuclear arsenal.

Russia has maintained that during negotiations on the comprehensive test ban U.S. officials promised Moscow access to U.S. supercomputers if Russia signed the treaty. Clinton administration officials insist that no such promise was ever made, and U.S. export controls on high performance computers (HPCs) continue to distinguish between civilian and military end-users in countries of security or proliferation concern, such as Russia.

In 1995 the Clinton administration liberalized export controls on HPCs, but the subsequent acquisition of supercomputers by Russia and China prompted Congress to reverse part of the administration's decision in November 1997. In July, President Clinton announced revised control thresholds for HPCs, which would allow civilian end-users in Russia to buy computers capable of 12,300 million theoretical operations per second (MTOPS) and military end-users to purchase machines capable of 6,500 MTOPS. The changes will not take effect until a 180-day congressional review period expires. The IBM computers illicitly acquired by Sarov are believed to be capable of 10,000 MTOPS.

Pakistani Prime Minister Ousted in Bloodless Coup

Pakistan's democratically elected government fell October 12 as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was ousted by Army Chief General Pervaiz Musharraf in a bloodless coup. Sharif and most of his government ministers were placed under house arrest as the Pakistani military took control of airports and state-run television stations, which broadcast the news of the coup to the public. Musharraf declared a state of emergency October 15 and subsequently named himself chief executive.

While refusing to set a timetable for Pakistan's return to democracy, Musharraf did announce the creation of a seven-member National Security Council on October 25. The council includes military leaders and bureaucrats, who will have power over the newly appointed governors of Pakistan's four provinces. Musharraf has also created an army-appointed body to investigate corruption in the Sharif government and has promised a return to democracy as soon as Pakistan's economy is under control.

The United States at first condemned the coup but then adopted a more conciliatory tone and proceeded with a planned waiver of nuclear testing-related sanctions for both Pakistan and India. However, the United States did say it would deny Pakistan various forms of assistance until Musharraf returns Pakistan to a civilian-ruled democracy. The IMF said it would cut off all aid to Pakistan until democracy was re-established, and the Commonwealth of Britain and its ex-colonies suspended Pakistan's membership on October 18. NATO, the European Union and the UN also appealed to Musharraf to reinstate democratic rule.

India's army went on alert after the coup, and the newly elected government immediately held a Cabinet Security meeting to discuss the situation. Musharraf is known to be a hard-liner on India policy, although he did move troops back from the Indian border on October 18 in a gesture of goodwill. But tensions continued to rise between the two nuclear powers as four Pakistani soldiers were killed October 27 when they tried to seize two posts along the India-Pakistan border in Kashmir.