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NEWS BRIEFS
THAAD Moves Forward After Second Hit
U.S., Japan Formalize TMD Cooperation
Deutch Panel Call Non-Proliferation Efforts Inadequate
UN Under-Secretary Worried About Arms Industry
CD Adds Five Members
KLA Disarming Slowly and Reluctantly
Commercial Arms Export Licenses Reported
Compromise Reached on Trident Subs
THAAD Moves Forward After Second Hit
Just weeks after the Army's Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system destroyed a ballistic missile target for the second time in a row, the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) announced on August 19 that it is making preparations to advance the system into the next phase of development. The decision is significant because it means that THAAD will not have to achieve a third intercept, as originally required, before moving into the pre-production phase, known as "engineering, manufacturing and development." THAAD, the most mature of the "upper-tier" theater missile defense systems, failed to destroy a Scud-like target in its first six attempts, but hit its intended target on June 10 and again on August 2 at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.
In justifying its plans, BMDO stated, "This decision will save millions of dollars and potentially accelerate the ultimate fielding of the THAAD system, currently scheduled for 2007." Some critics, however, have warned against moving too quickly with the program, which has cost approximately $4 billion thus far, and have challenged the significance of the recent intercepts because they occurred in a benign testing environment.
In a related development, the conference report to the fiscal year 2000 defense authorization bill separates funding for THAAD and its sea-based counterpart, Navy Theater Wide, for the next five years and mandates that decisions concerning each system be made based on their individual performances. This provision essentially reverses the Pentagon's current approach, under which a review would be held in late 2000 to determine whether THAAD or Navy Theater Wide should be the "lead" system that receives the majority of upper-tier TMD funding.
U.S., Japan Formalize TMD Cooperation
After several years of discussions, the United States and Japan agreed in mid-August to formally begin joint technology research on Navy Theater Wide, a theater missile defense (TMD) system to be carried on Aegis ships. This cooperative effort responds to North Korea's August 1998 test of its 1,500-2,000 kilometer-range Taepo Dong-1 missile, which flew over Japanese territory. (See ACT, August/September 1998.) The August 16 memorandum of understanding, signed by the Department of Defense and the Japanese Defense Agency, directs the parties to focus their efforts on four key components—the sensor, advanced kinetic kill warhead, second-stage propulsion and lightweight nose cone—of the system's interceptor missile, known as the Standard Missile-3. No decision has been made on joint deployment.
Russia and China have repeatedly criticized U.S. efforts to cooperate with Japan (and possibly Taiwan) on TMD. Grigory Berdennikov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's department for security and disarmament, said August 19 that the U.S.-Japan agreement would threaten stability in Asia. Earlier this year, Ambassador Sha Zukang, director-general of the department of arms control and disarmament in China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, argued that TMD in Taiwan would give pro-independence forces "a false sense of security, which may incite them to reckless moves." "This can only lead to instability across the Taiwan Strait or even in the entire North-East Asian region," he said on January 12. These warnings take on added significance following Taiwan's expression of interest in TMD on August 18. (See story.)
Deutch Panel Calls Non-Proliferation Efforts Inadequate
The U.S. government remains ill-prepared to address the threat of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, a congressional commission led by former Director of Central Intelligence John Deutch reported on July 14. Citing the weapons of mass destruction threat to U.S. interests from terrorists and rogue states, and the destabilizing effect of such weapons on South Asia, East Asia and the Middle East, the 12-member bipartisan panel called for more energetic presidential leadership, a greater non-proliferation role for the vice-president and the creation of a new senior post in the National Security Council (NSC) to integrate non-proliferation concerns into all aspects of national security policy.
The Deutch panel asserted that despite President Clinton's strong rhetoric on the subject, the administration's efforts to combat proliferation have been diffuse and uncoordinated. The panel judged that non-proliferation goals are too often subordinated to other foreign policy interests and that key counter-proliferation programs in the departments of Defense and Energy have languished for lack of high-level attention. To insure that proliferation is given higher priority, the Deutch panel urged the appointment of a "National Director for Combating Proliferation" to serve on the NSC staff.
As proposed, the national director would have the rank of deputy national security advisor and would be able to chair meetings of the NSC's Deputies Committee in order to coordinate the "full-range of proliferation-related issues and activities." The national director would also work with the president's budget director to oversee a government-wide "coordinated agency proliferation budget." The Deutch panel also advised creating a senior-level "Combating Proliferation Council" to improve coordination and resolve disputes among government agencies.
UN Under-Secretary Worried About Arms Industry
With defense company mergers and international arms production cooperation on the rise, UN Under-Secretary General for Disarmament Affairs Jayantha Dhanapala questioned on July 8 the impact that the "globalization of the arms industry" would have on arms control. Dhanapala spoke amid growing U.S. calls for its NATO allies to upgrade their militaries to counter what Washington fears is an expanding gap between U.S. and European military capabilities as revealed during the alliance's 11-week air war against Yugoslavia.
Dhanapala pointed to stagnating and declining defense budgets and the increasing cost of producing advanced weapons as "powerful incentives" for cross-border cooperation among arms manufacturers. As cooperation grows, he noted, it will be harder to define what an export is and to develop trade controls. Moreover, he questioned whether government or industry would define defense needs as companies become increasingly global.
Dhanapala challenged arms manufacturers to join the UN in "promoting greater transparency and in curbing wrongful uses of weapons" while also volunteering that the UN could serve as a "robust databank" on arms production and trade.
The UN currently maintains a voluntary Register of Conventional Arms, which was established in 1992 and calls on countries to annually report their exports and imports of tanks, armored combat vehicles, large-caliber artillery, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships and missiles and missile systems. On average, some 90 countries participate each year.
CD Adds Five Members
Though unable to start any negotiations since resuming its third and final working period of the year on July 26, the 61-member Conference on Disarmament (CD) expanded its membership to 66 on August 5. Membership for the five new states—Ecuador, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Tunisia—had been blocked at various times during the past year by Iran, Pakistan and India.
With the September 8 close for negotiations fast approaching, U.S. Ambassador Robert Grey welcomed the new members, but ruled out any further membership expansion until the conference has demonstrated that it can do substantive work—such as completing a fissile material cutoff treaty—at its current size. In addition to the organizational problems inherent in a committee with 66 independent members, the CD faces the challenge of having to operate by consensus, meaning that each new member represents another potential veto of the conference's work.
Originally an 18-member body in 1962, the conference last expanded in June 1996 to its previous size of 61 with 23 new members. On August 12, Malaysia noted that 21 countries are still awaiting membership.
After agreeing in August 1998 to start fissile cutoff negotiations, the conference was expected to resume those talks this year. However, as a result of U.S. resistance to working on preventing an arms race in outer space, the refusal of the nuclear-weapon states (except China) to negotiate on nuclear disarmament, and the unwillingness of some states to start any negotiations without passage of a comprehensive work program, this year will probably see a repeat of 1997, when the CD held no formal talks.
KLA Disarming Slowly and Reluctantly
The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), an estimated 17,000 ethnic Albanians who fought to separate Kosovo from Serb-dominated Yugoslavia, is on pace to meet its September 19 disarmament deadline according to KFOR, the international security force in the war-torn province. KFOR, however, has stepped up its search and seizure operations, while Russia, a KFOR member with pro-Serbian sympathies, charged on August 18 that the process is "proceeding very slowly."
General Michael Jackson, commander of KFOR, said August 23 that the KLA had met the second of three benchmarks on August 20, by which all of its heavy weapons and 60 percent of its small arms were to be handed over to registered storage sites. By September 19, all KLA small arms, except pistols, shotguns and hunting rifles, are to be turned over and the wearing of KLA uniforms and insignia will be proscribed as the separatist group is officially disbanded.
KFOR's measure of KLA compliance is somewhat suspect given that its original weapons holdings are not known. Though "encouraged by the results," a KFOR spokesperson, who declined to release total numbers of weapons turned over, said that KFOR is "still not satisfied with the number of weapons in circulation and continued acts of violence." With the international security presence now numbering over 40,000, KFOR is taking a more active role in disarming the province, according to the spokesperson. Though pistols, shotguns and hunting rifles are not proscribed, KFOR is confiscating the weapons if they are carried in public.
Commercial Arms Export Licenses Reported
The State Department issued approximately 45,000 commercial arms export licenses to 143 countries, territories and international organizations during fiscal year (FY) 1998, according to a July report sent to Congress. The licenses total $26.4 billion and are valid for four years. During FY 1997, the State Department authorized $24.7 billion in commercial licenses.
The United Kingdom and Japan, with $3 billion and $2.9 billion in licenses respectively, led all other countries in the value of licenses received. Seven other countries—South Korea, Turkey, Singapore, Finland, Australia, Germany and Israel—each tallied more than $1 billion in U.S. munitions list licenses. NATO members accounted for approximately 45 percent ($12 billion) of the licenses.
Other potential buyers included China, which contracted for $3.5 million in manufacturing and technical assistance, and Russia, which secured licenses worth $90 million for similar assistance and for satellite equipment. All commercial licenses for India and Pakistan were revoked following their nuclear tests in May 1998.
The State Department released its license authorizations in early July as part of the mandated "Section 655" report, which the departments of State and Defense are supposed to submit to Congress by February of each year. The Pentagon delivered its half of the report on Foreign Military Sales (FMS) and other Pentagon programs to Congress on February 9. The United States is the only country that has two separate systems, FMS and commercial, for exporting arms.
Compromise Reached on Trident Subs
The conference report to the fiscal year (FY) 2000 defense authorization bill, which was completed August 5, permits the Navy to remove the four oldest Trident ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) from service before START II enters into force, provided the president can certify that such a step will not jeopardize national security. Senior administration officials testified in April that reducing the Trident force from 18 to 14 SSBNs would save $5-6 billion through FY 2005 without undermining the survivability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent. The status of the Trident fleet had been in question after the Senate and the House of Representatives completed their versions of the defense authorization bill this spring. (See ACT, April/May 1999.)
The conference report stipulates that no funds may be spent on the retirement or dismantlement of the 18 Trident SSBNs unless START II enters into force or the president certifies that four achievable conditions have been met. Specifically, the president must certify that the Trident force reductions will not threaten the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, will not provide a disincentive for Russian ratification of START II or negotiation of future arms control measures, will not interfere with U.S. abilities to carry out its nuclear war plans (known as the SIOP) and will not prevent the United States from "uploading" its nuclear delivery systems should new threats arise.
Once this certification has been transmitted to Congress, the United States can maintain 16 SSBNs for the first 240 days and 14 SSBNs thereafter. The conference report includes $13 million to preserve the option of converting the four retired boats to a conventional role. Despite the exemption for the Tridents, the United States is still required to stay at START I force levels (6,000 "accountable" warheads) until START II comes into effect.
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