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NEWS BRIEFS
Yeltsin Signs Decree on Tactical Nuclear Weapons
THAAD Test Aborted
U.S. Reports 1998 Arms Transfers to UN
OAS Transparency Convention Ready for Signature
Kerrey Amendment on Nuclear Reductions Defeated
Yeltsin Signs Decree on Tactical Nuclear Weapons
On April 29, Russian President Boris Yeltsin signed a decree outlining a concept for the development and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. This action appears to formalize numerous suggestions from some Russian officials that Moscow place greater emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons to compensate for the deterioration of its conventional forces. Details are not available on the document, which was signed during a closed-door session of the Russian Security Council, at which the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Rocket Forces, Vladimir Yakovlev, reportedly was asked to leave the room. Rose Gottemoeller, assistant secretary of energy for non-proliferation and national security, expressed doubts on May 6 that Russia could undertake a major refurbishment of its tactical nuclear forces due to financial constraints.
U.S. Strategic Command estimates that Russia possesses between 7,000 and 12,000 or more tactical nuclear weapons, although most of these are not believed to be operationally deployed. The United States is attempting to ascertain the status of Russia's efforts to dismantle thousands of tactical nuclear weapons in accordance with the 1991 reciprocal unilateral initiatives announced by Presidents Bush and Gorbachev. To this end, the United States and Russia agreed at the March 1997 Helsinki summit to explore confidence-building and transparency measures related to tactical nuclear weapons (as well as nuclear long-range sea-launched cruise missiles) in the context of START III negotiations. The Clinton administration, however, refuses to commence official negotiations on that treaty until after the Russian Duma has ratified START II—a move that is not likely any time soon due to the NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia. Security Council Secretary Vladimir Putin claimed that the April 29 meeting had been scheduled in advance and was not a response to NATO's action.
THAAD Test Aborted
A critical flight test of the U.S. Army's Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system at White Sands Missile Range was aborted on May 25 after the Hera ballistic missile target malfunctioned. This would have been THAAD's 10th flight test overall and seventh attempt to intercept a missile target. All six previous intercept attempts, the most recent of which took place on March 29, have failed. (See ACT, March 1999.) The THAAD test will most likely be rescheduled for early June.
The Senate's version of the fiscal year (FY) 2000 defense authorization bill, which was approved on May 27, requires the United States to accelerate the deployment of both THAAD and its sea-based counterpart, Navy Theater Wide (NTW). It also retains separate funding for both of these "upper-tier" systems through FY 2005 based on each system's individual performance. This provision would reverse current policy, as articulated by Defense Secretary William Cohen on January 20, whereby THAAD and NTW will compete for funding so that one of the systems can be deployed by 2007.
Meanwhile, the first official intercept attempt of the Army's Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system will take place in mid-summer rather than during the week of May 10-14 as originally planned. The test was delayed because of the possibility of forest fires in the vicinity of the White Sands testing grounds.
U.S. Reports 1998 Arms Transfers to UN
On May 28, the United States reported to the UN Register of Conventional Arms that it had shipped 2,700 major conventional weapons to 28 countries and Taiwan in 1998. The voluntary register, established in January 1992, calls on all countries to report annually on exports and imports of tanks, armored combat vehicles (ACVs), large-caliber artillery, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, and missiles and missile systems. Information on military holdings, procurement through national production and arms trade policies can also be volunteered.
The 1998 U.S. total fell well below the 1997 mark of 4,759 weapons exports. Much of the difference can be accounted for by the 1997 delivery of 1,502 missiles to Israel in comparison with 143 in 1998. Moreover, total ACV and artillery exports dropped by more than half from 1997. Exports of combat aircraft, including 155 F-16 and 47 F-15 fighters, climbed by 27 in 1998 to 232. Missiles, mainly air-to-air, accounted for nearly two-thirds of all U.S. arms exports.
Taiwan topped U.S. arms recipients for 1998 with 355 weapons, including 52 F-16 fighters and 120 tanks. Japan (339 weapons, all but 12 of which were missiles) and Turkey (338 imports) vied for second place. Israel ranked first among Middle East recipients with 185 weapons acquisitions.
Regionally, Europe took delivery of the most U.S. weapons in 1998 with 1,067, almost three-quarters of which were missiles. With 689 imports, the Middle East and North Africa, the leading recipient in 1997 and 1996, dropped to third behind Asia, which received 876 weapons.
OAS Transparency Convention Ready for Signature
The first regional arms transparency regime aimed at revealing conventional weapons transfers will be opened for signature by the foreign ministers of the 34 members of the Organization of American States (OAS) on June 7 at the OAS General Assembly in Guatemala. The convention, which will enter into force 30 days after the sixth instrument of ratification is deposited, will be the first to require states-parties to report on weapons transactions, as well as make timely notifications for arms acquisitions, whether imported or manufactured domestically.
Specifically, states-parties to the convention will submit reports no later than June 15 each year to the OAS General Secretariat detailing imports and exports of tanks, armored combat vehicles (ACVs), large-caliber artillery, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, and missiles and missile launchers during the preceding year. These categories mirror those of the voluntary UN Register of Conventional Arms, to which less than half of OAS members made reports for 1997, the latest reporting period with data available.
States will also be required to notify the OAS of arms acquisitions no later than 90 days after the incorporation of weapons covered by the seven categories into their armed forces inventory. The United States, a principal proponent of the regime, had sought to include advanced notification of transfers in the convention, but other states objected. As constructed, however, the notification requirement does not rule out advance notification, and states-parties may notify of budgeting for future weapons acquisitions. States are also free to consult with one another regarding the information provided to the OAS General Secretariat. The OAS is not expected to release the data declarations to the public.
Cuba, whose membership in the OAS was suspended in 1962, will not participate in the regime.
Kerrey Amendment on Nuclear Reductions Defeated
On May 26, the Senate defeated an amendment to the fiscal year (FY) 2000 defense authorization bill that would have removed the provision, in effect since 1998, barring U.S. nuclear arms reductions below START I levels until START II enters into force. Nevertheless, the Senate's version of the defense bill (S. 1059), which was approved on May 27, allows the U.S. Navy to remove the four oldest Trident ballistic missile submarines from service—a move that could save about $5 billion to $6 billion through FY 2005. However, the House version (H.R. 1401), which had not been voted on as of the end of May, mandates that those four boats fulfill their nuclear roles unless certain conditions have been met. The status of the Trident force will have to be resolved in a House-Senate conference.
Under S. 1059, the United States cannot retire or dismantle any of the following strategic nuclear delivery systems until START II enters into force: 76 B-52H bombers, 14 Trident submarines, 500 Minuteman III ICBMs and 50 MX ICBMs. (The House version specifies 18 Trident submarines.) Concerned that this provision forces the Russians to sustain a larger nuclear arsenal than they can control, Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE) offered an amendment to delete it from the bill—a measure that failed by a 56-44 vote. Those in favor of keeping the restriction, such as Senator Bob Smith (R-NH), argued that it is needed in order to maintain pressure on the Duma to ratify START II.
Although welcoming the Senate's decision to reduce the number of Trident submarines, the Clinton administration said on May 24 that it wants the provision mandating START I levels to be repealed because it "unnecessarily restrict[s] the president's national security authority and ability to structure the most capable, cost effective force possible."
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