NEWS BRIEFS

U.S., N. Korea Move Closer on Site Access

U.S. to Repay Pakistan for Undelivered F-16s

Parties Aim to Complete CFE by November 1999

South Africa Announces Major Arms Purchases

Cyprus Forgoes Russian Missile Deployment

Despite opposition within his own government, Greek Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides announced on December 29 that Cyprus would not take delivery of a January 1997 order of Russian S-300 ground-to-air missiles. The anti-aircraft missiles were a source of tension for Greece and Turkey as well as Cyprus, which has been divided since 1974 into autonomous and mutually hostile Greek and Turkish communities.

Turkey had claimed that the missiles threatened its aircraft and the Turkish mainland and had warned that all means, including military force, would be used to stop deployment of the S-300s. The Greek Cypriots, who have a 1993 defense commitment from Athens—an original backer and long-time defender of the missile purchase—remained steadfast in deploying the missiles up until Clerides' announcement. The reversal of course came amid growing talk among European capitals, including Berlin, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) for the first six months of 1999, that the missile issue could jeopardize EU membership for Cyprus. (The EU announced in December 1997 that Cyprus would be one of six states to begin accession talks.)

The United States, which had criticized the S-300 purchase as a mistake while also condemning Turkey for its threats of force, welcomed the decision, as did the EU. However, the Cyprus Socialist Party EDEK, including the Cypriot defense minister, decided to withdraw from the government on January 2 over Clerides' announcement. Cyprus may now seek shorter-range missiles as an alternative and plans to negotiate with Russia for delivery of the S-300s to the Greek island of Crete.

U.S., N. Korea Move Closer on Site Access

Following talks in New York and Washington December 4–11, the United States and North Korea appear to be close to a deal to permit U.S. access to the site of an underground facility being built in Kumchangni. In exchange, Pyongyang reportedly expects additional U.S. food aid and concessions on economic sanctions. The potential nuclear applications of the underground facility have threatened to force U.S. withdrawal from the 1994 Agreed Framework, which froze Pyongyang's plutonium-producing facilities in exchange for two light-water reactors and deliveries of heavy fuel oil during construction.

Though no final deal has been reached, U.S. officials said that Pyongyang has accepted the principle of providing access to the construction site and has dropped its demand for $300 million in compensation. For its part, the Clinton administration continues to insist, as State Department spokesman James Foley said on December 12, that food aid to North Korea is "not linked to political issues." On background, however, U.S. officials have clearly connected the issues of site access and food aid.

Even with an agreement on access to the Kumchangni site, the Agreed Framework will remain on shaky ground. KEDO, the U.S.-led consortium implementing the nuclear agreement, is still behind in its annual shipment of 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to North Korea, with 109,000 tons still to be delivered as of the end of the year. Foley said on December 15 that the Clinton administration would use money from KEDO's fiscal year 1999 appropriation to complete the delivery of oil due in 1998.

U.S. to Repay Pakistan for Undelivered F-16s

Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif announced on December 19 that the United States and Pakistan had settled an eight-year dispute arising from Washington's non-delivery of 28 F-16 fighters, for which Islamabad paid $658 million in 1989. President Clinton had pledged an early and fair resolution of the problem at a December 2 meeting with Sharif.

Under the terms of the agreement, the United States agreed to pay Islamabad $326.9 million, almost all of which which will come from the Treasury Department Judgement Fund (used to settle legal disputes), and provide goods worth another $140 million, including $60 million in wheat. Washington had earlier reimbursed Islamabad $157 million for the fighters. The United States stopped delivery of the F-16s in 1990 in accordance with the 1985 Pressler amendment, which proscribes U.S. military sales and assistance to Pakistan if the president cannot certify that Islamabad does not possess a "nuclear explosive device."

New Zealand announced on December 1 that it would purchase, through two consecutive five-year leases, the 28 fighters previously sold to Pakistan. The proposed deal is estimated at between $105 and $125 million.

Parties Aim to Complete CFE by November 1999

At the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) December 2–3 foreign ministers meeting in Oslo, the United States, Russia and the other 28 parties to the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty committed themselves to completing adaptation of the 1992 treaty by next year's OSCE summit in Istanbul, scheduled for November 14–15. The adaptation negotiations, ongoing since January 1997, aim to replace the Cold War bloc-to-bloc and concentric zone structure of the CFE with national and territorial limits for each state.

To meet this goal, the states-parties noted that "outstanding key issues" will have to be resolved and drafting of the adapted treaty started within the first months of 1999. (The key issues include whether to apply territorial limits to combat aircraft and attack helicopters, temporary deployment limits, future of the so-called flank-zone, equipment limits for states in Central Europe and mechanisms for revising and exceeding limits.) Although Moscow endorsed the timetable, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov reiterated Russia's long-standing demand that negotiations conclude before April 1999, when the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland join NATO.

On December 8, NATO moved to mollify Russian concerns about NATO's future military presence in new members by repeating a March 14, 1997 pledge that the alliance will pursue collective defense through "ensuring the necessary interoperability, integration, and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces." NATO also declared that "exceptional temporary deployments" will not be used for permanent stationing of combat forces, will not be "routine" and will not be directed against any specific country.

Russia, however, has sought quantitative limits rather than reassurances and remains opposed to NATO's exceptional temporary deployment proposal. That proposal would permit states outside of the flank zone temporary deployments of 459 tanks, 723 armored combat vehicles (ACVs) and 420 artillery pieces, whereas states within the flank zone, such as Russia, would be limited to temporary deployments of 153 tanks, 241 ACVs and 140 artillery pieces. The flank zone, which will be retained in the adapted treaty, limits the tanks, ACVs and artillery in the northern and southern flanks of Europe, where Russia claims serious security threats.

South Africa Announces Major Arms Purchases

On November 18, South African Deputy President Thabo Mbeki announced arms purchases totaling $5.1 billion, despite complaints from within the government, reportedly including Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, that the funds would be better spent on basic services. The South African defense budget for 1998 was $2.3 billion, according to The Military Balance 1998/99.

Pretoria selected companies in Britain, Germany, Italy and Sweden to supply four navy corvettes, three submarines, four maritime helicopters, 40 light utility helicopters, 28 fighter aircraft and 24 jet trainer aircraft. Mbeki claimed that offsets—side deals that can include coproduction, countertrade or economic investment—would create 65,000 South African jobs, although the final contracts must still be negotiated.

In February the United States ended its debarment of Armscor, Pretoria's military procurement company, and two other South African companies, thereby opening up the South African arms trade to U.S. companies for the first time in 35 years. Competition for the contracts, however, was too far advanced for American arms producers to tender offers.

As its fighter choice, South Africa opted for the joint British-Swedish JAS-39 Gripen. Because the Gripen contains a significant number of American components, the State Department had to approve a marketing license, which it did on August 18, for the sale to go forward.