NEWS BRIEFS

Senate Vote on NATO Expansion Delayed

DOE Conducts Third Subcritical Experiment

Cochran, Inouye Introduce Alternative NMD Bill

UK Withdraws Tactical Nukes from Service

Panel Drops Arms Sales Code of Conduct

Thailand Cancels F/A-18 Buy; Pakistan May Sue

CD Appoints 'Special Coordinator' on Landmines

Senate Vote on NATO Expansion Delayed

Despite strong Senate support for adding the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland to NATO, a vote on the three accession protocols will not be held until at least the end of April when the Senate returns from its April recess.

On March 20, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) postponed Senate action on the Clinton administration's foremost foreign policy objective, pinning the delay on Democratic filibustering on Republican-sponsored domestic legislation. Although reportedly not a significant factor in Lott's decision, 17 senators had signed a letter on March 5 requesting that the vote be delayed until June 1.

Senate approval of NATO's enlargement appears inevitable, as demonstrated by the Foreign Relations Committee vote of 16-2 in favor on March 3, but the administration is campaigning hard against any amendments that could affect future expansion. Speaking shortly before Lott's unexpected postponement, President Bill Clinton urged the Senate "to reject any efforts to impose an artificial pause on the process of enlargement."

More than 20 amendments have been proposed, including one to condition the membership of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland on their prior admission into the European Union. Another seeks to prohibit any commitments to further expansion for three years after the first three join the alliance.

Of the current 16 NATO members, Canada, Denmark, Germany and Norway have ratified the accession protocols.

DOE Conducts Third Subcritical Experiment

The Department of Energy (DOE) conducted its third subcritical experiment, code-named "Stagecoach," at the Nevada Test Site on March 25. Although the experiments utilize fissile materials, they do not generate any nuclear yield and are thus compliant with the Comprehensive Test Ban (CTB) Treaty. DOE contends that the subcritical experiments are an integral component of its Stockpile Stewardship and Management Program, which is designed to ensure the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in the absence of nuclear testing. Critics, on the other hand, have argued that the subcritical experiments are unnecessary and that the United States should institute greater transparency measures in order to provide assurances that these activities do not circumvent the CTB Treaty.

The first two experiments were conducted July 2 and September 18, 1997. DOE plans to conduct at least one more experiment this year.

Cochran, Inouye Introduce Alternative NMD Bill

As an indication that the debate on national missile defense (NMD) policy is intensifying, Senators Thad Cochran (R-MS) and Daniel Inouye (D-HI) introduced the "American Missile Protection Act of 1998" on March 19, thereby offering another alternative to the Clinton administration's "3+3" program (see ACT, January/February 1998). The legislation (S.1806) would make it U.S. policy "to deploy as soon as is technologically possible" an NMD system that is capable of defending the United States against limited ballistic missile attack (whether accidental, unauthorized or deliberate). Their proposal differs from the NMD bill introduced last year by Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS), which calls for deployment by the end of 2003, in that it does not mandate a specific deployment date and does not require the United States to consider withdrawing from the ABM Treaty if an amendment is not reached with Russia within one year to permit NMD deployment. Under the Clinton administration's 3+3 plan, the United States seeks to develop the elements of an NMD system by the year 2000 that can then be deployed within another three years if the ballistic missile threat makes it necessary.

UK Withdraws Tactical Nukes From Service

Following through on its April 1995 commitment, Britain's Royal Air Force withdrew from service the last of its estimated 100 WE-177 tactical nuclear bombs on March 31. The WE-177s, some of which were located in Germany, are likely to be dismantled. The withdrawal of the WE-177s leaves the United States as the only country to have tactical nuclear weapons deployed outside of its territory (with several hundred weapons still in Europe).

Britain now intends to rely on its fleet of Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines for nuclear deterrence. The first three submarines in the class—HMS Vanguard, HMS Victorious and HMS Vigilant—have already entered into service. The fourth and final boat, HMS Vengeance, is scheduled to be deployed in the early 2000s, allowing Britain to keep two boats on patrol at any given time. Each submarine is equipped with 16 Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles capable of carrying up to eight warheads each. Britain, however, is not expected to keep its submarines fully loaded and, according to estimates by the Natural Resources Defense Council, its future nuclear stockpile may consist of a total of about 275 warheads.

Panel Drops Arms Sales 'Code of Conduct'

On March 10, the House-Senate conference committee dropped arms sales "code of conduct" legislation from the State Department authorization bill for fiscal years 1998-1999.

The House of Representatives had attached code of conduct legislation as an amendment to the State Department authorization bill in June 1997, but action on the bill was held up over a number of contentious issues. The modified code required the president to submit two lists to Congress every fiscal year. One would detail states that promote democracy, respect human rights, are not engaged in "armed aggression" and fully participate in the UN Register of Conventional Arms and are therefore eligible for U.S. military assistance. The second would list states that did not meet the four criteria, but that the president determined should be allowed to receive U.S. military arms and equipment. To block arms transfers to states on the second list, Congress would be required to vote a resolution of disapproval for each state.

House supporters of the code-of-conduct legislation plan to continue efforts to make the code law by pressing for its inclusion on the foreign aid authorization bill. A nearly identical code remains alive as a stand-alone bill in the Senate where Senator John Kerry (D-MA) introduced it on July 24, 1997. Code-of-conduct legislation first appeared in Congress in late 1993, but has been rejected by votes in the House in 1995, by the Senate in 1996 and in the House International Relations Committee in April 1997.

Thailand Cancels F/A-18 Buy; Pakistan May Sue

On March 13, U.S. officials announced the cancellation of a purchase of eight F/A-18 fighters by Thailand as a result of the country's continuing economic crisis. Thailand will receive no refund of the $75 million already paid for the aircraft and the United States will assume $250 million in payments for the fighters, which will be delivered to the U.S. Marine Corps.

In another case of non-delivery of U.S. weapons, momentum is building in Pakistan to file a lawsuit against the United States for refusing to refund $658 million Islamabad paid for 28 F-16 fighter aircraft that Washington failed to deliver. The United States has paid back approximately $150 million.

According to recent Pakistani press reports, Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan has said Pakistan is preparing to sue the United States for a full refund for the fighters, which the United States stopped delivery of in 1990 in accordance with the 1985 "Pressler Amendment." That legislation forbids the U.S. government from delivering military equipment and technology to Pakistan if the president cannot certify to Congress that Pakistan does not possess a "nuclear explosive device." The United States delivered arms worth $368 million to Pakistan under a one-time exemption to the Pressler amendment, but the aircraft were excluded.

In both cases, the United States sought a third buyer for the aircraft, but all efforts failed. If Pakistan decides to resort to legal action, Islamabad must file a suit before the statute of limitations expires in February 1999.

CD Appoints 'Special Coordinator' on Landmines

On March 26, the Conference on Disarmament (CD) appointed—for the second year running—a "special coordinator" for anti-personnel landmines (APLs). (See p. 21.)

The conference is expected to name the special coordinator when it renews its work on May 11. The work of the coordinator could include developing a mandate for establishing an ad hoc committee that would consider negotiations of an export/transfer ban on APLs, possibly by the end of the second conference session of 1998.

In a prepared statement for his March 26 address to the CD, U.S. Ambassador Robert Grey reiterated the administration's support for an export-transfer ban as well as for the creation of the ad hoc committee. He said the appointment of a special coordinator "would be a significant first step" toward progress on restrictions of APLs in the 1998 session, especially with regard to states that are the largest producers of landmines.

The special coordinator was also tasked with taking into account "developments outside the Conference," namely the Ottawa Convention, signed last December. The convention prohibits the production, stockpiling, transfer and use of APLs, and as of March 31 had 125 signatories and seven parties. The signatory status of CD members (35 of the 61 members have signed the Ottawa Treaty) and the degree to which the special coordinator incorporates the objectives of the treaty in CD deliberations will have a significant impact on whether an ad hoc committee is established.